Business
World Bank Slashes Global Growth Forecasts Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Policy Uncertainty
The World Bank has sharply lowered its global growth forecasts for 2025, warning that rising trade frictions, policy uncertainty, and mounting geopolitical risks are dragging the world economy toward its weakest performance in over a decade.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released Tuesday, the Bank said it had revised down growth projections for nearly 70% of all economies — spanning regions and income levels. Global GDP is now expected to grow just 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than projections made earlier this year.
“This will mark the slowest pace of global growth outside of actual recessions since the 2008 financial crisis,” the report stated, adding that while a full-blown global recession is not anticipated, the current decade is shaping up to be the weakest in terms of growth since the 1960s.
The Bank attributes the slowdown to a mix of trade-related tensions — particularly those linked to U.S. tariffs — as well as rising climate-related disruptions and weaker-than-expected expansion in key economies. These combined forces, it says, have injected fresh uncertainty into a world economy that only months ago appeared to be heading for a soft post-pandemic landing.
“Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Growth in developing economies has declined from 6% annually in the 2000s to below 4% in the 2020s, mirroring the broader slowdown in global trade and investment.”
The report also warned that progress by emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) in closing income gaps with advanced nations and reducing extreme poverty is likely to stall unless deeper structural reforms are pursued.
Adding to the pressure, public debt in many of these economies has soared to record highs, while investment growth continues to lag. The World Bank urged EMDE governments to prioritise inflation control and build fiscal resilience through targeted spending.
Despite the bleak outlook, the Bank noted that global growth could recover more quickly if major economies take steps to resolve ongoing trade disputes. If current tariff levels were halved through new agreements, global GDP growth could be 0.2 percentage points stronger in both 2025 and 2026, the report said.
The warning comes at a time of growing uncertainty in global markets, as governments and central banks weigh how best to navigate fragile recoveries while responding to inflation, climate shocks, and political instability.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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