Europe’s economic recovery could be at risk in 2025 as top Wall Street analysts warn that potential tariffs from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration may derail growth. Experts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suggest that the eurozone’s GDP could slow to 0.7%, well below the 1.1% forecast by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.
Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Markets
With Trump’s potential return to the White House, analysts fear that renewed trade disputes between Washington and Brussels could pressure Europe’s fragile recovery. While the EU was not included in the first wave of U.S. tariffs—which affected Mexico, Canada, and China—Trump has hinted that the bloc could be next due to its large trade surplus with the U.S.
Goldman Sachs’ chief European economist Sven Jari Stehn estimates that a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports from the EU—if fully reciprocated—could erase one percentage point from euro area growth.
Beyond GDP, corporate earnings are also at risk. Goldman Sachs projects European earnings per share (EPS) growth of just 3% in 2025, far below the 8% market consensus. Analysts stress that the primary concern is not just the tariffs but the uncertainty they create, which could stifle investment and business confidence.
Sectors Most at Risk
The EU accounts for 15% of total U.S. imports, with key industries such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and automobiles particularly exposed. Analysts warn that car manufacturers and cyclical industries—which rely on global supply chains—face the highest risk of disruption.
However, healthcare and high-margin defensive sectors may fare better. The so-called “GRANOLAS” stocks—which include GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestlé, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oréal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP, and Sanofi—have underperformed recently but historically perform well when trade tensions rise.
Can a Weaker Euro Offset the Impact?
A declining euro could provide some relief to European exporters, particularly multinational firms with significant U.S. revenue exposure. Goldman Sachs predicts the EUR/USD exchange rate will fall to 0.97 within 12 months, with GBP/USD weakening to 1.20.
However, analysts caution that a weak euro does not guarantee stock market gains. A stronger U.S. dollar has historically led to underperformance in non-U.S. markets, as dollar-based investors face currency translation losses unless hedged.
“Euro weakening usually coincides with rising risk premiums, offsetting any competitiveness advantages,” Goldman Sachs strategists noted.
EU Retaliation Strategy Unclear
Europe’s response to potential U.S. tariffs remains uncertain. According to JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi, the EU Commission has vowed to retaliate firmly, but the specific timing and scope of its response remain unclear.
If Brussels follows its 2018 trade war playbook, it may impose steep tariffs—possibly over 50%—on politically sensitive U.S. exports, targeting sectors that could hurt Trump’s voter base the most.
JPMorgan estimates that trade policy uncertainty has already cut 0.5 percentage points from Europe’s annualized growth over the past year. Any new tariff threats could further weaken the region’s economic outlook.
US-EU Trade Talks Underway
Amid growing concerns, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with ECB President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday to discuss transatlantic trade policies. While no official details were disclosed, the meeting signals that Washington and Brussels are closely monitoring rising trade tensions.
As financial markets await clarity on U.S. trade policy, analysts warn that investors and businesses must brace for a turbulent 2025.