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Trump’s Tariff Threats Loom Over Europe’s 2025 Growth, Wall Street Warns

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Europe’s economic recovery could be at risk in 2025 as top Wall Street analysts warn that potential tariffs from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration may derail growth. Experts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suggest that the eurozone’s GDP could slow to 0.7%, well below the 1.1% forecast by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.

Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Markets

With Trump’s potential return to the White House, analysts fear that renewed trade disputes between Washington and Brussels could pressure Europe’s fragile recovery. While the EU was not included in the first wave of U.S. tariffs—which affected Mexico, Canada, and China—Trump has hinted that the bloc could be next due to its large trade surplus with the U.S.

Goldman Sachs’ chief European economist Sven Jari Stehn estimates that a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports from the EU—if fully reciprocated—could erase one percentage point from euro area growth.

Beyond GDP, corporate earnings are also at risk. Goldman Sachs projects European earnings per share (EPS) growth of just 3% in 2025, far below the 8% market consensus. Analysts stress that the primary concern is not just the tariffs but the uncertainty they create, which could stifle investment and business confidence.

Sectors Most at Risk

The EU accounts for 15% of total U.S. imports, with key industries such as machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and automobiles particularly exposed. Analysts warn that car manufacturers and cyclical industries—which rely on global supply chains—face the highest risk of disruption.

However, healthcare and high-margin defensive sectors may fare better. The so-called “GRANOLAS” stocks—which include GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestlé, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oréal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP, and Sanofi—have underperformed recently but historically perform well when trade tensions rise.

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Can a Weaker Euro Offset the Impact?

A declining euro could provide some relief to European exporters, particularly multinational firms with significant U.S. revenue exposure. Goldman Sachs predicts the EUR/USD exchange rate will fall to 0.97 within 12 months, with GBP/USD weakening to 1.20.

However, analysts caution that a weak euro does not guarantee stock market gains. A stronger U.S. dollar has historically led to underperformance in non-U.S. markets, as dollar-based investors face currency translation losses unless hedged.

“Euro weakening usually coincides with rising risk premiums, offsetting any competitiveness advantages,” Goldman Sachs strategists noted.

EU Retaliation Strategy Unclear

Europe’s response to potential U.S. tariffs remains uncertain. According to JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi, the EU Commission has vowed to retaliate firmly, but the specific timing and scope of its response remain unclear.

If Brussels follows its 2018 trade war playbook, it may impose steep tariffs—possibly over 50%—on politically sensitive U.S. exports, targeting sectors that could hurt Trump’s voter base the most.

JPMorgan estimates that trade policy uncertainty has already cut 0.5 percentage points from Europe’s annualized growth over the past year. Any new tariff threats could further weaken the region’s economic outlook.

US-EU Trade Talks Underway

Amid growing concerns, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with ECB President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday to discuss transatlantic trade policies. While no official details were disclosed, the meeting signals that Washington and Brussels are closely monitoring rising trade tensions.

As financial markets await clarity on U.S. trade policy, analysts warn that investors and businesses must brace for a turbulent 2025.

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Consortium Agrees to All-Cash Deal to Acquire Polish Parcel Company InPost

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A consortium of investors has reached an agreement to acquire all shares of Polish-founded parcel locker company InPost, betting on the growth of self-service delivery across Europe. The deal is structured as an all-cash public offer valued at €15.6 per share.

The consortium includes funds managed or advised by Advent International, FCWB LLC—a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx Corporation—A&R Investments Ltd., and PPF Group, together with InPost itself. The agreement is conditional and recommended by the InPost board.

InPost is best known for its proprietary Paczkomat parcel machines, widely used across Poland. These white self-service lockers, often located in subway stations or local shops, allow customers to send and receive small and medium parcels independently, bypassing traditional courier methods.

“Together, we will strengthen our network and reach more consumers with enhanced fast and flexible delivery options as we continue our objective of redefining the European e-commerce sector,” said Rafał Brzoska, CEO and founder of InPost. Brzoska confirmed he will remain as chief executive, and the company’s headquarters, management team, and key innovation operations will continue to be based in Poland.

“Importantly, I remain fully committed to leading the InPost Group. Our headquarters, management team and key innovation capabilities will remain in Poland, which will continue to be the centre for implementing the group’s successful strategy,” Brzoska added.

InPost has been expanding its footprint internationally. In the UK, the company acquired a 95.5% stake in competitor Yodel last year. It also operates in Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, and Portugal, managing parcel deliveries for online vendors across multiple European markets.

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Following the completion of the transaction, FedEx will become a shareholder in InPost, joining the other investors to guide the company’s growth strategy. Prior to the deal, InPost was owned by PPF Group, A&R Investments—funds controlled by Brzoska—and Advent International, with just over half of the shares held by other investors.

Analysts say the acquisition reflects the rising demand for self-service parcel solutions, particularly in Europe’s growing e-commerce sector. The all-cash nature of the deal underscores confidence in InPost’s operational model and its ability to scale across multiple countries.

InPost has built a reputation for innovation in last-mile delivery, offering convenient alternatives to home delivery and enabling retailers to meet the increasing expectations of online shoppers. The company’s continued expansion and strong market position in Poland and abroad make it a strategic target for investors seeking to capitalize on the shift toward automated parcel services.

With Brzoska remaining at the helm and the company’s operational base secure in Poland, InPost looks set to maintain its leadership in self-service delivery while leveraging the backing of global investors to expand further across Europe.

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Scandinavian Airlines Looks to AI and Consolidation for Growth Amid Industry Challenges

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The airline’s chief says artificial intelligence will help rebuild schedules during storms and improve efficiency in an industry that faces constant uncertainty. Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) is preparing for a new phase of growth while awaiting regulatory approval for its integration into the Air France-KLM group, according to President and CEO Anko van der Werff.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, van der Werff acknowledged the delay in the regulatory process. “We expect to get regulatory approval in the second half of the year,” he said. “I’m always a bit impatient… it’s a slow process.” He emphasized that many initiatives are effectively on hold, including joint ventures and partnerships that could unlock the benefits of a larger global network.

Despite industry consolidation, van der Werff is confident the SAS brand will remain strong. He sees the airline’s Scandinavian hubs, particularly Copenhagen, as a natural engine for growth amid capacity constraints elsewhere in the Air France-KLM network. “There will be real, real growth potential,” he said, predicting that travellers will “see more of SAS in the future than what you’re seeing today.”

The airline is also exploring the practical applications of artificial intelligence across operations. Van der Werff said SAS spent much of last year identifying “five big bets” for AI, with a focus on improving customer experience and operational efficiency. Handling disruptions during harsh Nordic winters is a key priority. “Occasionally we get hit by real snowstorms,” he said, describing days with “100 cancellations a day” and aircraft, crew, and passengers scattered across the network. AI, he noted, could rebuild schedules faster and more accurately than human teams alone.

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Van der Werff stressed that the aviation industry is moving beyond experimentation with AI toward tangible applications. While fully autonomous passenger aircraft remain a distant prospect, he highlighted smaller improvements such as optimising onboard supplies, reducing fuel use, and automating administrative tasks.

Disruption management, he said, is the most urgent area for AI implementation. “Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of passengers” may need rerouting during large-scale cancellations, and faster decision-making could reduce hotel stays, reposition aircraft and crews, and limit the ripple effects of delays. “How do you put that puzzle back together more quickly, more efficiently?” van der Werff asked.

Reflecting on the broader industry, he noted that uncertainty is constant, from health crises and financial shocks to geopolitical disruptions and fluctuating demand. “Something will always happen,” he said, citing events such as SARS, the financial crisis, and COVID-19.

Van der Werff called for faster decision-making in Europe to maintain competitiveness. “Europe needs to move faster,” he said, urging reduced bureaucracy and a clearer strategic vision to support innovation. Despite challenges, he remains optimistic about consolidation and technological advances, while highlighting the potential for Europe to embrace entrepreneurship and risk-taking once more.

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Azerbaijan’s SOFAZ fund gains from rising gold prices amid global market uncertainty

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Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) is seeing strong gains from its gold holdings, benefiting from the ongoing rise in global gold prices and generating substantial revenue for the country. The fund’s strategy reflects a wider trend among sovereign investors, who are increasing gold allocations to shield assets from global instability.

SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, was established to manage revenues from oil and gas exports and support long-term economic stability. The fund also plays a key role in financing the state budget and strategic national projects. As of January 1, 2026, gold accounted for 38.2 percent of SOFAZ’s investment portfolio, up from the previous year.

“Gold holdings are managed within the Fund’s approved investment framework, taking into account target allocations and allowable deviation bands,” SOFAZ said in a statement to Euronews. The fund uses gold as a hedge against external shocks, inflation, and broader market stress, aiming to protect capital and reduce exposure to volatility.

Gold prices recently reached record levels, surpassing $5,500 (€4,660) per ounce before falling sharply following the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. By Wednesday, prices rebounded to $5,000 (€4,230) per ounce. SOFAZ noted that its decisions on gold investments are guided by the fund’s overall risk-return strategy rather than short-term price movements.

“Gold plays a stabilising role within the Fund’s overall portfolio, and increasing gold holdings reduces sensitivity to adverse market developments, supporting a more balanced strategic asset allocation,” the fund said. Expanding its gold reserves is intended to safeguard Azerbaijan’s strategic financial assets and strengthen resilience amid global economic uncertainty.

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SOFAZ began adding gold to its portfolio in 2012, gradually increasing allocations over time. In 2025, the fund purchased 53.4 tonnes of gold, raising total reserves to 200 tonnes. Over the past five years, SOFAZ generated $22.7 billion (€18.95 billion) in investment returns, including the benefits of gold price appreciation and exchange-rate effects.

The fund attributes its ability to navigate market downturns and recoveries to a diversified and resilient portfolio. The equity sub-portfolio, covering both public and private equities, has been a major driver of growth. Since the diversification strategy was launched in 2012, the equity portfolio has increased more than fourfold, delivering a 305 percent return and nearly $10 billion (€8.35 billion) in investment gains.

By combining oil revenues with a diversified investment approach and growing gold reserves, SOFAZ continues to strengthen Azerbaijan’s financial stability, preparing the country for both domestic and global economic challenges.

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