Business

Trade Policy Uncertainty Threatens Global Growth, Oxford Economics Warns

Published

1 year ago

March 21, 2025

RTX

Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is expected to have a significant impact on business investment in major economies, with the EU and UK projected to see a 2% decline in investments this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics.

Investment Decline Amid Trade War Fears

The study warns that businesses are scaling back investment plans due to increasing trade tensions, particularly those influenced by the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. With global trade disputes escalating, investment across key economies such as the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK is facing a notable decline.

Oxford Economics found that investment undershot by approximately 4% in the U.S. and China and around 2% in the Eurozone and UK. While this decline is not catastrophic, it poses a significant challenge to global economic stability. In 2023, business investment accounted for 22% of GDP in China, 15% in the U.S., 12% in the Eurozone, and 10% in the UK. The decline in investment could have a lasting effect on economic growth.

Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

Beyond the uncertainty itself, higher tariffs imposed as part of ongoing trade disputes are also negatively affecting economic growth while simultaneously driving inflation higher.

The report highlights growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, particularly after Trump proposed a 200% tariff on EU alcohol imports in retaliation for the EU’s 50% duty on U.S.-made whiskey. In response, the European Commission is considering countermeasures on up to €26 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Additionally, the U.S. government is closely monitoring the EU’s digital competition regulations, which could result in substantial fines for major American tech companies such as Apple and Meta. Retaliatory measures from the U.S. remain a possibility.

Small Economies at Higher Risk

Oxford Economics’ research indicates that smaller, trade-dependent economies in the Eurozone—such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—are likely to be hit the hardest. GDP in these countries could shrink by up to 1% over the next two years due to reduced investment and trade activity.

Among larger EU economies, Belgium and Italy are expected to suffer the most. Exporters that rely on U.S. markets are particularly vulnerable, as firms hesitate to expand capacity or invest in production amid the uncertainty of shifting trade policies.

This uncertainty is also affecting the automotive industry, a key sector for EU exports. The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has led to hesitation in investment decisions related to hiring, research and development, and market expansion. Consumers, too, are delaying major purchases, further slowing economic activity.

Possible Outcomes for Global Trade

Oxford Economics outlines four possible scenarios for trade uncertainty and its impact on private investment and global growth.

Rapid Decline in Uncertainty – If trade policy uncertainty dissipates by the end of the year, investment levels are expected to recover in 2026 and beyond.
Prolonged Uncertainty Until 2028 – If uncertainty persists and is coupled with increased tariffs, global investment could suffer long-term harm, with declines of up to 10% in the U.S. and China, 6% in the Eurozone, and 4%-5% in the UK.
Gradual Decline to a High-Level of Uncertainty – If uncertainty remains elevated for several years, it could lead to a sustained drag on global investment, reducing it by 10%-20% in major economies.
Uncertainty Lasting Until 2029 – The worst-case scenario predicts a 20% drop in investment in China, 14% in the U.S., 10% in the Eurozone, and 7% in the UK by 2029.

The report suggests that, in such a scenario, governments would need to introduce major monetary and fiscal policy interventions to prevent prolonged global economic stagnation.

A Growing Concern for Global Markets

As trade tensions persist and global uncertainty mounts, businesses are bracing for a challenging investment climate. Without a resolution to trade disputes, economic growth could face prolonged difficulties, reinforcing a cycle of low confidence and declining investments.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether global policymakers can ease tensions and provide stability, or if prolonged uncertainty will further hinder economic recovery.

Business

Fuel Prices Surge Across Europe as Middle East Crisis Pushes Oil Above $100

Published

2 days ago

April 10, 2026

Web Reporter

Fuel prices across Europe have risen sharply in recent weeks following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with both petrol and diesel costs climbing significantly since late February.

The increase comes as Brent crude oil prices moved above $100 per barrel after a joint strike by the United States and Israel on Iran, triggering concerns about global energy supply. The rise in crude prices has quickly filtered down to consumers across European countries.

According to the European Commission, the average price of Euro-super 95 petrol in the European Union stood at €1.871 per litre at the end of March, while diesel reached €2.076 per litre. Compared to late February, petrol prices are about 15 percent higher, while diesel has surged by around 30 percent.

There are wide differences in fuel prices across EU member states. The Netherlands recorded the highest diesel prices at €2.46 per litre, followed by Denmark and Germany. Other countries with above-average diesel costs include Finland, Belgium, France and Ireland.

At the other end of the scale, Malta reported the lowest diesel price at €1.21 per litre, significantly below the EU average. Hungary, Slovenia and Bulgaria also ranked among the least expensive markets for diesel. In several countries including Spain, Slovakia and Croatia, diesel prices remained below €2 per litre.

Petrol prices show a similar pattern. The Netherlands again recorded the highest price at €2.33 per litre, with Denmark and Germany also among the most expensive. Greece and France reported petrol prices above €2 per litre as well.

Malta had the lowest petrol price at €1.34 per litre, followed by Bulgaria. Other relatively cheaper markets included Slovenia, Hungary and Spain, where prices remained below €1.60 per litre.

The data also highlights the role of taxation in fuel pricing. Taxes account for a significant portion of costs across Europe, making up more than half of petrol prices and nearly 45 percent of diesel prices on average. The share varies by country, with Slovenia recording one of the highest tax proportions on petrol, while Bulgaria had one of the lowest.

Despite the shift toward cleaner energy, traditional fuels continue to dominate the European vehicle market. According to Eurostat, petrol-powered cars accounted for 66.6 percent of new registrations in 2024, followed by diesel vehicles at 16.9 percent and fully electric cars at 13.5 percent.

The latest rise in fuel costs underscores the continued sensitivity of European energy markets to geopolitical developments, with consumers facing increased expenses as global tensions persist.

Business

Oil Prices Surge as Strait of Hormuz Closure Shakes Markets

Published

2 days ago

April 9, 2026

Web Reporter

The brief sigh of relief across global markets lasted barely a day. Brent crude climbed sharply back towards $100 a barrel on Thursday after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending a clear signal that the fragile Middle East ceasefire was already fracturing.

The global benchmark was trading at $98.61 a barrel in early afternoon dealings, up about 4 percent, after plunging as much as 16 percent the previous day to below $91. That earlier drop had been driven by optimism that a two-week pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran could ease tensions and stabilize energy flows.

Iran’s move to shut the strategic waterway followed Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which Tehran described as a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global energy supplies, carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure has raised immediate concerns among governments and businesses about supply disruptions and rising costs.

Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company Adnoc, said Iran appeared to be using control of the strait as a political tool rather than ensuring free navigation. Analysts say such actions could deepen uncertainty for industries that rely heavily on stable energy supplies.

Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory firm deVere, warned that the situation leaves a significant share of global oil flows exposed to geopolitical risk. For small and medium-sized businesses already dealing with high energy costs, the renewed volatility adds further pressure.

Stock markets reacted negatively to the developments. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent after posting strong gains the previous day, while Germany’s DAX dropped 1.4 percent and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.7 percent. In Asia, major indexes in Japan, South Korea, and China all closed lower.

Wall Street, which had rallied strongly on Wednesday with the S&P 500 rising 2.5 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining nearly 3 percent, was expected to open lower as investor confidence weakened.

US President Donald Trump said American forces would remain in the Gulf until a lasting agreement is secured and respected, warning of serious consequences if the situation deteriorates further.

Meanwhile, Israel intensified its military operations in Lebanon, carrying out its heaviest strikes since the conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group escalated last month. Reports indicate that more than 250 people have been killed in the latest wave of attacks.

The renewed instability highlights the continued vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical tensions. With oil prices approaching $100 a barrel once again, businesses are facing renewed uncertainty, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and logistics that are highly sensitive to fuel costs.

Business

Spain Employment Hits Record as Social Security Enrolment Tops 22 Million

Published

6 days ago

April 6, 2026

Web Reporter

Spain’s labour market reached a historic milestone in March, with Social Security enrolment surpassing 22 million contributors for the first time, driven by seasonal hiring linked to Easter and continued growth in the services sector.

New data released on Monday showed that the number of contributors, adjusted for seasonal variations, rose to 22,010,532 after 80,274 jobs were added during the month. In average terms, employment increased by 211,510 people, marking the largest rise ever recorded for a March period.

Unadjusted figures also reflected a record level, with more than 21.8 million people registered with Social Security. The government highlighted that the number of contributors has grown by nearly 3.4 million since 2018, pointing to sustained expansion in the labour market.

Officials said the latest gains were supported by increased activity during Easter Week, which traditionally boosts employment in tourism, hospitality and other service-related industries. Growth has also been noted in higher-skilled sectors, including information technology, science and professional services.

The data showed that female employment continues to rise, nearing 10.4 million, while permanent contracts have increased as a share of overall employment. Authorities linked these trends to labour reforms introduced in recent years aimed at improving job stability and workforce participation.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez acknowledged the milestone in a brief social media message before later praising workers in a video statement. He said the achievement reflected the efforts of millions of people contributing to the country’s economic progress.

The labour market report also indicated a modest improvement in unemployment. The number of jobless people fell by 0.9 percent in March to 2.42 million, the lowest level recorded for the month since 2008. Over the past year, unemployment has declined by more than 160,000.

Second Vice-President and Employment Minister Yolanda Díaz said that both female and youth unemployment have reached historic lows. She attributed the positive results to structural changes in the labour market and policies designed to support job creation and stability.

Economists note that while seasonal factors played a role in the March figures, the broader trend points to continued resilience in Spain’s economy. Strong demand in services and ongoing improvements in employment conditions have helped sustain growth despite external uncertainties.

The latest figures underline the strength of Spain’s recovery in recent years, with employment reaching new highs and unemployment continuing its gradual decline.