Business
OECD Lowers Eurozone Growth Forecast Amid Geopolitical and Trade Risks
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has downgraded its eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0%, down from 1.3% in December, citing weak investment and rising geopolitical risks. Global growth projections were also revised downward to 3.1% as trade disruptions weigh on economic sentiment.
Slower Recovery in Europe
According to the OECD’s Economic Outlook, published on Monday, Europe’s economic recovery is expected to be weaker than previously anticipated. The report highlights that ongoing trade tensions and inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges, limiting growth potential across the region.
The downgrade to 1.0% marks a 0.3 percentage point reduction from December’s forecast. Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, faced the most significant downward revision, with 2025 GDP growth now projected at just 0.4%, down from 0.7%. France and Italy also saw slight reductions to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, Spain remains a bright spot, with growth forecast at 2.6% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, slightly above previous estimates.
For 2026, eurozone growth was also downgraded by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%. The OECD attributes these declines to weak external demand and elevated borrowing costs, which continue to weigh on business investment and consumer spending.
Trade Fragmentation and Economic Uncertainty
The OECD warns that escalating trade barriers and geopolitical instability could further weaken global economic performance. The report states that “further fragmentation of the global economy is a key concern,” adding that widespread trade restrictions could reduce global GDP by 0.3% over the next three years and increase inflation by 0.4 percentage points annually.
Impact on North America
The OECD’s latest projections also reflect the economic impact of newly imposed US trade tariffs under the Trump administration. Mexico’s 2025 GDP outlook has been slashed by 2.5 percentage points, now expected to shrink by 1.3%. Canada’s growth forecast has also been cut by 1.3 percentage points to 0.7%. Meanwhile, the US economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from previous estimates.
The OECD stated that the economic fallout is “particularly severe in Canada and Mexico” due to their high trade exposure to the United States.
Persistent Inflation Challenges
Despite cooling demand, inflation remains a concern. Eurozone inflation is forecast to stay at 2.2% in 2025 before easing to 2.0% in 2026. Services inflation remains elevated due to tight labor markets, while goods inflation is picking up from low levels. In the UK, inflation is expected to average 2.7% in 2025 before declining to 2.3% in 2026. The US is also projected to experience higher inflation, with rates expected at 2.8% in 2025.
Central Banks to Maintain Cautious Approach
The OECD expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates gradually, with its key policy rate projected to fall to 2% by late 2025. The Bank of England is also expected to reduce rates cautiously. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant policy changes until well into 2026, while Japan continues its slow exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.
Call for International Cooperation
The OECD urges global policymakers to strengthen cooperation to prevent further economic fragmentation. “Countries need to find ways to address their concerns within the global trading system,” the report states. It also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms to enhance productivity, reduce regulatory burdens, and invest in digital infrastructure.
The report highlights that technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, could significantly boost productivity. However, as economic uncertainty persists, the OECD warns that rising trade tensions and inflation remain key concerns for the global economy in the coming years.
Business
Consortium Agrees to All-Cash Deal to Acquire Polish Parcel Company InPost
A consortium of investors has reached an agreement to acquire all shares of Polish-founded parcel locker company InPost, betting on the growth of self-service delivery across Europe. The deal is structured as an all-cash public offer valued at €15.6 per share.
The consortium includes funds managed or advised by Advent International, FCWB LLC—a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx Corporation—A&R Investments Ltd., and PPF Group, together with InPost itself. The agreement is conditional and recommended by the InPost board.
InPost is best known for its proprietary Paczkomat parcel machines, widely used across Poland. These white self-service lockers, often located in subway stations or local shops, allow customers to send and receive small and medium parcels independently, bypassing traditional courier methods.
“Together, we will strengthen our network and reach more consumers with enhanced fast and flexible delivery options as we continue our objective of redefining the European e-commerce sector,” said Rafał Brzoska, CEO and founder of InPost. Brzoska confirmed he will remain as chief executive, and the company’s headquarters, management team, and key innovation operations will continue to be based in Poland.
“Importantly, I remain fully committed to leading the InPost Group. Our headquarters, management team and key innovation capabilities will remain in Poland, which will continue to be the centre for implementing the group’s successful strategy,” Brzoska added.
InPost has been expanding its footprint internationally. In the UK, the company acquired a 95.5% stake in competitor Yodel last year. It also operates in Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, and Portugal, managing parcel deliveries for online vendors across multiple European markets.
Following the completion of the transaction, FedEx will become a shareholder in InPost, joining the other investors to guide the company’s growth strategy. Prior to the deal, InPost was owned by PPF Group, A&R Investments—funds controlled by Brzoska—and Advent International, with just over half of the shares held by other investors.
Analysts say the acquisition reflects the rising demand for self-service parcel solutions, particularly in Europe’s growing e-commerce sector. The all-cash nature of the deal underscores confidence in InPost’s operational model and its ability to scale across multiple countries.
InPost has built a reputation for innovation in last-mile delivery, offering convenient alternatives to home delivery and enabling retailers to meet the increasing expectations of online shoppers. The company’s continued expansion and strong market position in Poland and abroad make it a strategic target for investors seeking to capitalize on the shift toward automated parcel services.
With Brzoska remaining at the helm and the company’s operational base secure in Poland, InPost looks set to maintain its leadership in self-service delivery while leveraging the backing of global investors to expand further across Europe.
Business
Scandinavian Airlines Looks to AI and Consolidation for Growth Amid Industry Challenges
The airline’s chief says artificial intelligence will help rebuild schedules during storms and improve efficiency in an industry that faces constant uncertainty. Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) is preparing for a new phase of growth while awaiting regulatory approval for its integration into the Air France-KLM group, according to President and CEO Anko van der Werff.
Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, van der Werff acknowledged the delay in the regulatory process. “We expect to get regulatory approval in the second half of the year,” he said. “I’m always a bit impatient… it’s a slow process.” He emphasized that many initiatives are effectively on hold, including joint ventures and partnerships that could unlock the benefits of a larger global network.
Despite industry consolidation, van der Werff is confident the SAS brand will remain strong. He sees the airline’s Scandinavian hubs, particularly Copenhagen, as a natural engine for growth amid capacity constraints elsewhere in the Air France-KLM network. “There will be real, real growth potential,” he said, predicting that travellers will “see more of SAS in the future than what you’re seeing today.”
The airline is also exploring the practical applications of artificial intelligence across operations. Van der Werff said SAS spent much of last year identifying “five big bets” for AI, with a focus on improving customer experience and operational efficiency. Handling disruptions during harsh Nordic winters is a key priority. “Occasionally we get hit by real snowstorms,” he said, describing days with “100 cancellations a day” and aircraft, crew, and passengers scattered across the network. AI, he noted, could rebuild schedules faster and more accurately than human teams alone.
Van der Werff stressed that the aviation industry is moving beyond experimentation with AI toward tangible applications. While fully autonomous passenger aircraft remain a distant prospect, he highlighted smaller improvements such as optimising onboard supplies, reducing fuel use, and automating administrative tasks.
Disruption management, he said, is the most urgent area for AI implementation. “Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of passengers” may need rerouting during large-scale cancellations, and faster decision-making could reduce hotel stays, reposition aircraft and crews, and limit the ripple effects of delays. “How do you put that puzzle back together more quickly, more efficiently?” van der Werff asked.
Reflecting on the broader industry, he noted that uncertainty is constant, from health crises and financial shocks to geopolitical disruptions and fluctuating demand. “Something will always happen,” he said, citing events such as SARS, the financial crisis, and COVID-19.
Van der Werff called for faster decision-making in Europe to maintain competitiveness. “Europe needs to move faster,” he said, urging reduced bureaucracy and a clearer strategic vision to support innovation. Despite challenges, he remains optimistic about consolidation and technological advances, while highlighting the potential for Europe to embrace entrepreneurship and risk-taking once more.
Business
Azerbaijan’s SOFAZ fund gains from rising gold prices amid global market uncertainty
Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) is seeing strong gains from its gold holdings, benefiting from the ongoing rise in global gold prices and generating substantial revenue for the country. The fund’s strategy reflects a wider trend among sovereign investors, who are increasing gold allocations to shield assets from global instability.
SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, was established to manage revenues from oil and gas exports and support long-term economic stability. The fund also plays a key role in financing the state budget and strategic national projects. As of January 1, 2026, gold accounted for 38.2 percent of SOFAZ’s investment portfolio, up from the previous year.
“Gold holdings are managed within the Fund’s approved investment framework, taking into account target allocations and allowable deviation bands,” SOFAZ said in a statement to Euronews. The fund uses gold as a hedge against external shocks, inflation, and broader market stress, aiming to protect capital and reduce exposure to volatility.
Gold prices recently reached record levels, surpassing $5,500 (€4,660) per ounce before falling sharply following the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. By Wednesday, prices rebounded to $5,000 (€4,230) per ounce. SOFAZ noted that its decisions on gold investments are guided by the fund’s overall risk-return strategy rather than short-term price movements.
“Gold plays a stabilising role within the Fund’s overall portfolio, and increasing gold holdings reduces sensitivity to adverse market developments, supporting a more balanced strategic asset allocation,” the fund said. Expanding its gold reserves is intended to safeguard Azerbaijan’s strategic financial assets and strengthen resilience amid global economic uncertainty.
SOFAZ began adding gold to its portfolio in 2012, gradually increasing allocations over time. In 2025, the fund purchased 53.4 tonnes of gold, raising total reserves to 200 tonnes. Over the past five years, SOFAZ generated $22.7 billion (€18.95 billion) in investment returns, including the benefits of gold price appreciation and exchange-rate effects.
The fund attributes its ability to navigate market downturns and recoveries to a diversified and resilient portfolio. The equity sub-portfolio, covering both public and private equities, has been a major driver of growth. Since the diversification strategy was launched in 2012, the equity portfolio has increased more than fourfold, delivering a 305 percent return and nearly $10 billion (€8.35 billion) in investment gains.
By combining oil revenues with a diversified investment approach and growing gold reserves, SOFAZ continues to strengthen Azerbaijan’s financial stability, preparing the country for both domestic and global economic challenges.
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