Business
M&A Activity Shows Resilience Amid Global Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty
Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is demonstrating surprising resilience despite a challenging backdrop of geopolitical unrest, trade tensions, and lingering economic uncertainty. According to analysts and corporate advisers, seasoned dealmakers are continuing to pursue strategic transactions, even as risks remain elevated.
Pitchbook’s latest M&A report revealed that global dealmaking in the first half of 2025 reached $2 trillion across 24,793 transactions — year-on-year increases of 13.6% in value and 16.2% in volume. “Despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including recession risks, geopolitical instability, and renewed trade friction, M&A remained remarkably strong,” said Garrett Hinds, senior private equity analyst at Pitchbook.
Europe is on track for its best M&A year in over a decade, if current momentum continues. This follows a difficult 2023, where rising interest rates and inflation led to valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers. “When expectations from buyers and sellers are misaligned, deals often fall apart or require complex mechanisms like earn-outs to bridge the valuation gap,” said Lorenzo Corte, global co-head of transactions at Skadden.
Easing interest rates and more stable inflation conditions have helped narrow these valuation gaps. Nigel Wellings, co-head of corporate for Europe at Clifford Chance, noted that companies are finally regaining the ability to model costs and risks. “There’s now a better sense of where interest rates are heading, which is vital for deal pricing and structuring,” he said.
Strategic shifts driven by emerging technologies and climate goals are also prompting firms to restructure. Many companies are shedding non-core units or acquiring capabilities in areas like artificial intelligence and sustainability to future-proof their operations. “CEOs increasingly see M&A as a tool to reposition their business for the next decade,” said Erik Hummitzsch, EMEA deals leader at PwC Germany.
Geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies are also shaping deal strategies. Firms are consolidating operations to limit exposure in risky markets while increasing presence in stable or growing regions. Cost pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs, are pushing industries like automotive and chemicals toward consolidation. Meanwhile, increased defence spending in Europe is driving activity in aerospace and related sectors.
Europe’s cautious regulatory stance on mergers is being re-evaluated. The Draghi report, published in late 2024, has called for more encouragement of consolidation to bolster EU competitiveness. “There’s a growing recognition that scale isn’t inherently bad,” Wellings said, adding that Europe needs to create industrial champions, especially in globally competitive sectors like finance and defence.
Looking ahead, analysts say the M&A outlook hinges on global trade developments, particularly U.S. tariff policy under President Trump, and broader macroeconomic trends. While dealmaking remains below peak levels, growing appetite for strategic restructuring, easing interest rates, and better market clarity suggest that M&A activity is likely to remain steady in the months ahead.
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