Business
Global Luxury Sector Faces New Blow as US-China Trade War Escalates
The global luxury industry, already grappling with declining demand and changing consumer habits, faces a new hurdle as the trade war between the United States and China intensifies. Analysts warn that the sector’s fragile recovery may be further threatened by President Donald Trump’s recent decision to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 245%.
According to a memorandum seen by Euronews, the luxury market is forecasted to grow modestly at 1% to 3% annually between 2024 and 2027. This is a sharp slowdown compared to the 5% yearly growth seen between 2019 and 2023, and 9% between 2021 and 2023, as highlighted in a report by McKinsey.
China and the US are two of the largest luxury markets globally. In 2023, China accounted for 22%–24% of global luxury consumption, while US consumers contributed around 21% of total revenue in 2024, according to Bain & Company and Bank of America. Popular products in both markets include handbags, cosmetics, footwear, and leather goods, with brands such as Chanel, Dior, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Prada dominating sales.
However, economic slowdowns in both countries, combined with rising inflation and interest rates, have already caused luxury shoppers to scale back. The cost of living crisis in several regions has shifted consumer preferences toward more durable and budget-conscious purchases. Furthermore, luxury brands that raised prices post-pandemic without matching innovation are losing their exclusivity appeal.
The latest round of US tariffs, coupled with retaliatory Chinese tariffs currently at 125%, have added fresh uncertainty to the sector. Global stock markets have responded negatively, wiping billions in market capitalization from luxury giants. Shares of Lululemon Athletica dropped 20.7% on Nasdaq, Prada Group fell 23.4% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Kering and LVMH declined 26.3% and 19.9% respectively on Euronext Paris.
LVMH, often seen as a bellwether for the luxury industry, reported a 2% dip in Q1 2025 revenue to €20.3 billion. Fashion and leather goods revenue dropped 4%, perfumes and cosmetics remained flat, and wines and spirits fell 8%. Only watches and jewelry showed growth with a modest 1% increase.
Beyond China, US tariffs on EU goods—although reduced to 10% temporarily—also pose risks. The US imports various luxury products from Europe, including wine, chocolate, high-end apparel, and cars. These tariffs could increase prices for American consumers, potentially leading to reduced spending.
Additionally, the fragmented and globalized supply chains of luxury brands may incur hidden costs due to tariffs, further squeezing margins and complicating logistics.
In a surprising twist, the rising cost of luxury imports has led some Chinese manufacturers to promote knock-off products directly to US consumers via platforms like TikTok. Claiming to be original equipment manufacturers, they offer imitations of products like Birkin bags and Lululemon leggings at steep discounts. While their claims are largely unverified, Chinese wholesale platform DHgate has surged to the number two spot on the US Apple App Store, signaling growing consumer interest in alternatives amid rising prices.
As trade tensions deepen, the luxury sector is bracing for further disruptions in an already turbulent market landscape.
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