Business
Global House Prices Set to Rise Amid Supply Shortages and Growing Demand: Fitch Report
House prices are expected to climb globally over the next two years, with construction unable to keep pace with surging demand in most countries, according to Fitch Ratings’ 2025 housing and mortgage outlook.
The report forecasts nominal home price growth in the low to mid-single digits for many countries, driven by factors such as low unemployment, real wage growth, and declining inflation, which have bolstered household disposable incomes.
Regional Highlights
- Europe:
- In the eurozone, rising real household income is fueling demand and driving up prices. Exceptions include France, where prices are projected to decline due to strained affordability and political uncertainties, though a recovery may begin in 2026.
- The Netherlands is expected to see rapid price growth, albeit slower than the current year’s 13%, with rates between 8% and 10% in 2025. Limited supply, coupled with government programs supporting first-time buyers, will sustain high demand despite tighter fiscal policies.
- Germany and Spain are forecasted to experience accelerated price increases. Spain could see costs rise by 4% to 6% in 2025, driven by falling interest rates and robust consumer confidence, while Germany’s growth is expected to range from 2% to 4%.
- The UK anticipates modest growth of 2% to 4%, supported by lower mortgage rates and a strong labor market. Italy, however, may see smaller increases of 0.5% to 2.5% due to high mortgage rates and a focus on older properties rather than new builds.
- North America and Latin America:
- In Canada, price growth will benefit from government programs for first-time buyers, while Brazil and Mexico will see increases driven by rising wages and construction costs.
- Asia-Pacific:
- China stands out as one of the few countries where prices remain subdued, reflecting its unique economic conditions and housing market challenges.
Challenges to Supply and Demand
Fitch highlights several factors limiting housing supply, including high land, labor, and material costs, as well as regulatory constraints. Smaller builders face difficulties accessing financing due to elevated borrowing rates.
Demand, meanwhile, continues to grow, fueled by declining mortgage rates, stable unemployment, and increased household formation. Energy-efficient homes are in particularly high demand, driven by sustainability concerns and rising energy costs.
Risks and Uncertainties
Climate risks, such as flooding, could impact housing prices, especially in vulnerable areas. Additionally, potential shifts in central bank policies or unexpected economic downturns could alter price trends.
Fitch notes that lower-than-expected mortgage rates or stronger economic performance could accelerate price growth, while higher unemployment or renewed inflation could dampen demand and affordability.
With the housing market facing a mix of opportunities and challenges, the global outlook remains cautiously optimistic for 2025 and beyond.
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