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Global Central Banks Poised for Key Interest Rate Decisions Amid Market Volatility

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Major central banks are set to make crucial interest rate decisions this week, providing key guidance for global financial markets. Investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook, as Wall Street struggles to recover after falling into correction territory.

Global Stock Markets Under Pressure

Stock indices worldwide posted losses last week, driven by escalating trade tensions and risk-off sentiment. While markets saw a slight rebound on Friday, investor focus has now shifted to monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Bank of England (BOE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

Amid economic uncertainty, expectations are rising that major central banks could adopt a more dovish stance. The introduction of new US tariffs under the Trump administration has heightened concerns over global economic stability, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative monetary policies to support market recovery.

Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision is the most anticipated event for financial markets. The Fed has already cut rates by a full percentage point, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5% in 2024. In January, it paused its easing cycle due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market.

Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain rates at current levels until at least June, moving up from the previously anticipated September timeline. Concerns over inflation and weak consumer sentiment—exacerbated by recent US trade policies—are key factors influencing the decision. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February came in lower than expected, reinforcing the possibility of an earlier rate cut.

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While the Fed is likely to acknowledge economic risks, it may emphasize the need for sustained evidence of cooling inflation before committing to rate reductions. A dovish stance, often referred to as a “Fed put,” could lead to a strong rebound in US stock markets, weaken the US dollar, and boost major currencies like the euro.

BOE to Keep Rates Unchanged

The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4.5% this week, following a surge in inflation in January. However, swap market pricing suggests potential rate cuts in May and August, accelerating previous forecasts that projected only one reduction this year.

Additionally, increasing defense spending in Europe and Germany’s fiscal reforms could influence the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue loosening its monetary policy, prompting the BOE to follow suit.

The British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, mirroring the euro’s rally. However, analysts warn of potential overvaluation, raising the risk of a near-term correction.

BOJ to Pause Rate Hikes

The Bank of Japan is also expected to hold its policy rate at 0.5% this week, pausing a tightening cycle that began in March 2024. Despite raising rates three times in the past year, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda may express concerns over the impact of higher borrowing costs amid global trade uncertainties.

The Japanese yen has surged this year, benefiting from its safe-haven status and BOJ’s policy actions. While Japan’s core CPI stood at 3.2% in January, stubborn inflation is unlikely to alter expectations that the BOJ will slow its rate hikes in response to ongoing trade tensions.

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SNB to Cut Rates Again

The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%, marking its fifth consecutive rate cut since March 2024. The SNB was the first major central bank to initiate an easing cycle, citing cooling inflation and slowing economic growth. However, this could be the final cut in the current cycle, as the bank is unlikely to return to negative interest rates.

PBOC to Maintain Lending Rates

The People’s Bank of China is expected to keep its key lending rates unchanged at 3.1% (1-year loan prime rate) and 3.6% (5-year loan prime rate). However, amid rising trade tensions with the US, Beijing is anticipated to roll out further stimulus measures to bolster economic growth.

During its annual policy meeting, the Chinese government set its GDP growth target at 5% and increased its deficit level to a three-decade high of 4%. Key economic indicators—including industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment—are set to be released this week, offering further insight into the trajectory of China’s economy.

Outlook: Central Banks to Guide Market Sentiment

As central banks prepare to announce their decisions, investors will closely analyze policy statements for indications of future rate moves. A dovish shift from the Fed or other central banks could provide much-needed relief to financial markets, while any hawkish signals may fuel further volatility. With economic uncertainty looming, global markets remain on edge as they await central bank guidance.

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Consortium Agrees to All-Cash Deal to Acquire Polish Parcel Company InPost

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A consortium of investors has reached an agreement to acquire all shares of Polish-founded parcel locker company InPost, betting on the growth of self-service delivery across Europe. The deal is structured as an all-cash public offer valued at €15.6 per share.

The consortium includes funds managed or advised by Advent International, FCWB LLC—a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx Corporation—A&R Investments Ltd., and PPF Group, together with InPost itself. The agreement is conditional and recommended by the InPost board.

InPost is best known for its proprietary Paczkomat parcel machines, widely used across Poland. These white self-service lockers, often located in subway stations or local shops, allow customers to send and receive small and medium parcels independently, bypassing traditional courier methods.

“Together, we will strengthen our network and reach more consumers with enhanced fast and flexible delivery options as we continue our objective of redefining the European e-commerce sector,” said Rafał Brzoska, CEO and founder of InPost. Brzoska confirmed he will remain as chief executive, and the company’s headquarters, management team, and key innovation operations will continue to be based in Poland.

“Importantly, I remain fully committed to leading the InPost Group. Our headquarters, management team and key innovation capabilities will remain in Poland, which will continue to be the centre for implementing the group’s successful strategy,” Brzoska added.

InPost has been expanding its footprint internationally. In the UK, the company acquired a 95.5% stake in competitor Yodel last year. It also operates in Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, and Portugal, managing parcel deliveries for online vendors across multiple European markets.

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Following the completion of the transaction, FedEx will become a shareholder in InPost, joining the other investors to guide the company’s growth strategy. Prior to the deal, InPost was owned by PPF Group, A&R Investments—funds controlled by Brzoska—and Advent International, with just over half of the shares held by other investors.

Analysts say the acquisition reflects the rising demand for self-service parcel solutions, particularly in Europe’s growing e-commerce sector. The all-cash nature of the deal underscores confidence in InPost’s operational model and its ability to scale across multiple countries.

InPost has built a reputation for innovation in last-mile delivery, offering convenient alternatives to home delivery and enabling retailers to meet the increasing expectations of online shoppers. The company’s continued expansion and strong market position in Poland and abroad make it a strategic target for investors seeking to capitalize on the shift toward automated parcel services.

With Brzoska remaining at the helm and the company’s operational base secure in Poland, InPost looks set to maintain its leadership in self-service delivery while leveraging the backing of global investors to expand further across Europe.

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Scandinavian Airlines Looks to AI and Consolidation for Growth Amid Industry Challenges

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The airline’s chief says artificial intelligence will help rebuild schedules during storms and improve efficiency in an industry that faces constant uncertainty. Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) is preparing for a new phase of growth while awaiting regulatory approval for its integration into the Air France-KLM group, according to President and CEO Anko van der Werff.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, van der Werff acknowledged the delay in the regulatory process. “We expect to get regulatory approval in the second half of the year,” he said. “I’m always a bit impatient… it’s a slow process.” He emphasized that many initiatives are effectively on hold, including joint ventures and partnerships that could unlock the benefits of a larger global network.

Despite industry consolidation, van der Werff is confident the SAS brand will remain strong. He sees the airline’s Scandinavian hubs, particularly Copenhagen, as a natural engine for growth amid capacity constraints elsewhere in the Air France-KLM network. “There will be real, real growth potential,” he said, predicting that travellers will “see more of SAS in the future than what you’re seeing today.”

The airline is also exploring the practical applications of artificial intelligence across operations. Van der Werff said SAS spent much of last year identifying “five big bets” for AI, with a focus on improving customer experience and operational efficiency. Handling disruptions during harsh Nordic winters is a key priority. “Occasionally we get hit by real snowstorms,” he said, describing days with “100 cancellations a day” and aircraft, crew, and passengers scattered across the network. AI, he noted, could rebuild schedules faster and more accurately than human teams alone.

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Van der Werff stressed that the aviation industry is moving beyond experimentation with AI toward tangible applications. While fully autonomous passenger aircraft remain a distant prospect, he highlighted smaller improvements such as optimising onboard supplies, reducing fuel use, and automating administrative tasks.

Disruption management, he said, is the most urgent area for AI implementation. “Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of passengers” may need rerouting during large-scale cancellations, and faster decision-making could reduce hotel stays, reposition aircraft and crews, and limit the ripple effects of delays. “How do you put that puzzle back together more quickly, more efficiently?” van der Werff asked.

Reflecting on the broader industry, he noted that uncertainty is constant, from health crises and financial shocks to geopolitical disruptions and fluctuating demand. “Something will always happen,” he said, citing events such as SARS, the financial crisis, and COVID-19.

Van der Werff called for faster decision-making in Europe to maintain competitiveness. “Europe needs to move faster,” he said, urging reduced bureaucracy and a clearer strategic vision to support innovation. Despite challenges, he remains optimistic about consolidation and technological advances, while highlighting the potential for Europe to embrace entrepreneurship and risk-taking once more.

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Azerbaijan’s SOFAZ fund gains from rising gold prices amid global market uncertainty

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Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) is seeing strong gains from its gold holdings, benefiting from the ongoing rise in global gold prices and generating substantial revenue for the country. The fund’s strategy reflects a wider trend among sovereign investors, who are increasing gold allocations to shield assets from global instability.

SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, was established to manage revenues from oil and gas exports and support long-term economic stability. The fund also plays a key role in financing the state budget and strategic national projects. As of January 1, 2026, gold accounted for 38.2 percent of SOFAZ’s investment portfolio, up from the previous year.

“Gold holdings are managed within the Fund’s approved investment framework, taking into account target allocations and allowable deviation bands,” SOFAZ said in a statement to Euronews. The fund uses gold as a hedge against external shocks, inflation, and broader market stress, aiming to protect capital and reduce exposure to volatility.

Gold prices recently reached record levels, surpassing $5,500 (€4,660) per ounce before falling sharply following the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. By Wednesday, prices rebounded to $5,000 (€4,230) per ounce. SOFAZ noted that its decisions on gold investments are guided by the fund’s overall risk-return strategy rather than short-term price movements.

“Gold plays a stabilising role within the Fund’s overall portfolio, and increasing gold holdings reduces sensitivity to adverse market developments, supporting a more balanced strategic asset allocation,” the fund said. Expanding its gold reserves is intended to safeguard Azerbaijan’s strategic financial assets and strengthen resilience amid global economic uncertainty.

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SOFAZ began adding gold to its portfolio in 2012, gradually increasing allocations over time. In 2025, the fund purchased 53.4 tonnes of gold, raising total reserves to 200 tonnes. Over the past five years, SOFAZ generated $22.7 billion (€18.95 billion) in investment returns, including the benefits of gold price appreciation and exchange-rate effects.

The fund attributes its ability to navigate market downturns and recoveries to a diversified and resilient portfolio. The equity sub-portfolio, covering both public and private equities, has been a major driver of growth. Since the diversification strategy was launched in 2012, the equity portfolio has increased more than fourfold, delivering a 305 percent return and nearly $10 billion (€8.35 billion) in investment gains.

By combining oil revenues with a diversified investment approach and growing gold reserves, SOFAZ continues to strengthen Azerbaijan’s financial stability, preparing the country for both domestic and global economic challenges.

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