Eurozone inflation exceeded expectations in January, rising to 2.5% from 2.4% in December, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. Despite the increase, the euro weakened, and European stock markets tumbled, as investor concerns over potential US tariffs overshadowed expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy response from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Inflation Surpasses Forecasts
Economists had forecast inflation to remain steady at 2.4%, but the latest figures mark the highest rate since July 2024. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, held firm at 2.7%, defying predictions of a slight dip to 2.6%.
Among the key inflation components:
- Services recorded the highest annual price growth at 3.9%, down slightly from 4.0% in December.
- Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 2.3%, a slowdown from 2.6% the previous month.
- Energy prices surged to 1.8%, rebounding sharply from 0.1% in December.
- Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%.
Among Eurozone member states, Croatia posted the highest annual inflation rate at 5.0%, followed by Belgium (4.4%) and Slovakia (4.1%). Ireland (1.5%), Finland (1.6%), and Italy (1.7%) recorded the lowest inflation rates.
Markets React: Euro Under Pressure
Despite the stronger-than-expected inflation data, the euro remained under pressure, falling 1.2% on the day against the US dollar and briefly finding support at 1.0230. Earlier in January, the currency hit 1.0175, its lowest level since November 2022.
The weakness came amid renewed fears of US tariffs on European goods. US President Donald Trump reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the European Union, warning they could be implemented “pretty soon.” The US has already enforced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese imports, sparking fears that Europe could be next.
“Tariffs will continue to dominate the markets, and some traders still believe they could be reversed,” said BBVA’s Alejandro Cuadrado, warning that the full impact is not yet priced into FX markets.
ING’s Francesco Pesole also noted that the prospect of a global trade war remains a key downside risk for the euro, adding that an upcoming US trade report in April could keep EUR/USD under selling pressure.
European Stocks Tumble, Auto Sector Hit Hardest
European stock markets saw sharp declines, with the Euro STOXX 50 falling 1.9% and Germany’s DAX index dropping 2%. The auto sector suffered the steepest losses as fears of US tariffs on European cars rattled investors:
- Volkswagen shares fell over 6%
- Mercedes-Benz declined 4.9%
- BMW lost 4.5%
- Stellantis dropped 7% in Milan trading
- Pirelli shares slid 5.5%
Investors Flock to Bonds Amid Uncertainty
The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy led investors to seek refuge in sovereign bonds, pushing yields lower across Europe.
- German Bund yields fell 8 basis points to 2.40%
- French OAT yields declined 6 basis points to 3.15%
As markets digest the latest inflation data and trade tensions escalate, all eyes remain on the ECB’s response and the US administration’s next move regarding tariffs on Europe.