Business
Eurozone Growth Stalls as Germany and France Contract, Raising Expectations for ECB Rate Cuts
The eurozone economy stagnated in the final quarter of 2024, as Germany and France posted unexpected contractions, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates to support struggling growth.
According to preliminary data from Eurostat, eurozone GDP remained flat in Q4 2024, a sharp slowdown from the 0.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter and below analysts’ expectations of a 0.1% expansion. This marks the weakest performance since Q4 2023.
Germany and France Struggle, Portugal Leads Growth
The biggest drag on growth came from the bloc’s two largest economies:
- Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.2%, worse than the 0.1% decline forecasted.
- France’s economy contracted by 0.1%, missing expectations of stagnation.
- Italy’s GDP remained flat for the second consecutive quarter, defying projections of a 0.1% increase.
Meanwhile, some smaller economies outperformed:
- Portugal led growth with a 1.5% increase, followed by Lithuania (+0.9%) and Spain (+0.8%).
- The worst-performing economies were Ireland (-1.3%), Germany (-0.2%), and France (-0.1%).
“Once again, it is the periphery driving growth, while Germany and France remain a drag due to structural and cyclical headwinds,” said Kyle Chapman, FX Markets Analyst at Ballinger Group.
ECB Poised for Rate Cuts
The weak GDP figures have strengthened market expectations that the ECB will cut rates at its next policy meeting. Analysts predict a 25-basis-point cut to 2.75%, with at least four reductions expected by the end of 2025.
The ECB faces pressure to stimulate the economy, particularly as inflation trends toward the 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to emphasize that monetary policy alone is not enough, calling for fiscal support and structural reforms to improve competitiveness.
Policy Gap Widens Between ECB and Federal Reserve
The ECB’s likely rate cuts contrast sharply with the US Federal Reserve, which held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in its latest meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that there is “no rush” to cut rates further, citing continued US economic resilience.
“The eurozone is fragile, with stagnant growth and rising recession risks,” said Boris Kovacevic, Global Macro Strategist at Convera. “In contrast, the US economy remains strong, driven by consumer spending, a tight labor market, and AI-driven investment.”
Market Reactions: Euro Steady, Bond Yields Fall
Financial markets reacted cautiously to the data:
- The euro held steady at $1.04 ahead of the ECB decision.
- Sovereign bond yields fell, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets:
- German Bund yield dropped 6 basis points to 2.52%.
- France’s 10-year OAT yield fell to 3.26%.
- Italy’s BTP yield slid 7 basis points to 3.60%.
- Eurozone equities saw muted movement, with the Euro STOXX 50 rising 0.5%.
- Germany’s DAX hit a record high (+0.2%), while Deutsche Bank shares fell 3.4% on weak revenue guidance.
- Spain’s IBEX 35 outperformed (+0.8%), boosted by gains in real estate and banking stocks.
Outlook: More Cuts Ahead?
With Germany and France struggling, the ECB faces growing pressure to support growth through monetary easing. However, policy divergence with the US Fed could weigh on the euro, while persistent structural issues in Europe’s biggest economies remain a key concern.
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