Business
Eurozone Growth Forecasts Slashed Amid Trump’s Tariff Shock
Economists have sharply downgraded eurozone growth projections following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of 20% tariffs on European exports. The sweeping trade barriers have heightened concerns over a global economic slowdown, prompting expectations of accelerated rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), with April now seen as a likely starting point.
Tariffs Trigger Economic Concerns
Trump’s latest trade move has sparked widespread concerns among economists, who warn that the tariffs will hit European consumption and investment while shifting inflation fears to the background. The tariff shock is expected to weigh heavily on trade, business confidence, and foreign investments, increasing the likelihood of stagnation within the eurozone economy.
ABN Amro economists, led by Bill Diviney, anticipate a significant slump in European economic activity. “The EU has been hit with a 20% tariff. We expect this to drive a sharp fall in exports to the U.S. over the coming months, and we are significantly downgrading our 2025 growth forecast as a result,” Diviney stated. The bank now expects near-zero quarterly growth in the short term, with a likely contraction by the third quarter of 2025. However, a recovery is projected toward the year’s end, gaining momentum in 2026.
Bank Forecasts and Inflation Outlook
Bank of America estimates that the U.S. tariffs could reduce global GDP growth by 50 basis points, with the U.S. potentially losing up to 1.5 percentage points, while China and the eurozone face contractions of around one percentage point and 40–60 basis points, respectively.
“For the eurozone, if tariffs remain in place, we anticipate a 40–60 basis point decline in growth over the next few quarters, with the EU likely implementing some form of retaliatory measures,” economist Ruben Segura Cayuela said. However, the inflationary impact of EU retaliation is expected to be minimal, with a 10% tariff hike on U.S. imports raising inflation by only five basis points.
Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Sven Jari Stehn, also revised their projections, warning of increased downside risks. “Our baseline forecast of 0.8% eurozone growth in 2025 already accounted for a total trade-related GDP hit of 0.7%, but the magnitude of Trump’s tariffs raises the likelihood of a technical recession.” The bank now expects the ECB to cut its deposit rate to 1.75% by July, with an April cut deemed “very likely.”
ECB Rate Cuts on the Horizon
The consensus among major financial institutions is that the ECB will respond to the tariff-induced slowdown with aggressive monetary easing. ING’s global head of macroeconomics, Carsten Brzeski, likened the tariffs to a “tsunami,” warning of a prolonged downturn.
“This U.S. tariff move will hurt. Beyond trade, the real concern is its effect on confidence—European consumers and businesses are likely to hold back on spending and investment, keeping eurozone growth at a crawl,” Brzeski said. ING has accordingly lowered its eurozone GDP forecast for 2025 to 0.6% from 0.7% and for 2026 to 1.0% from 1.4%.
With economic headwinds mounting, analysts widely expect the ECB to begin rate cuts in April, potentially ushering in a series of reductions throughout the year to cushion the impact of weakened trade and investment. As uncertainty over global trade tensions intensifies, the eurozone’s economic trajectory remains precarious.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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