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European Natural Gas Prices Surge Amid Cold Snap and Geopolitical Risks

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European natural gas prices surged in November, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark rising 16% to €46 per megawatt-hour (MWh), reflecting heightened demand and supply-side concerns. The increase marks a sharp recovery from February lows of under €25/MWh and signals renewed volatility in Europe’s energy markets.

Cold Weather and Geopolitical Strains Intensify Supply Concerns

Unseasonably cold weather across the Northern Hemisphere has driven up heating demand. Sub-zero temperatures in northwest Europe and the U.S. Northeast have tightened energy markets, according to Quantum Commodity Intelligence. Simultaneously, declining wind energy generation has reduced renewable power output, pushing utilities to rely on gas-fired plants.

The combination of increased demand and reduced renewable energy output has strained Europe’s gas storage levels, which have dipped below 90% for the first time in 2023. Although storage remains above critical thresholds, concerns about shortages have added a geopolitical risk premium to TTF prices.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbates market uncertainty. Last week, Gazprom unexpectedly halted supplies to Austria, raising fears of broader disruptions. Additionally, the year-end expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement threatens a crucial supply route that accounts for 5% of Europe’s gas needs. Without a new deal, countries in Eastern and Central Europe could face severe shortages during winter.

Goldman Sachs Warns of Further Price Spikes

Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 TTF price forecast upward to €40/MWh, citing increased risks of supply disruptions and higher demand. The bank predicts heating demand could rise by 46 million cubic meters daily compared to last winter, potentially leaving storage levels at just 40% capacity by March 2025.

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In a worst-case scenario involving prolonged LNG supply delays, stronger-than-expected Asian demand, or colder-than-average weather, prices could spike to €77/MWh, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart. Such levels would force some industries to switch from gas to oil-based fuels.

Conversely, a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit dispute could stabilize prices around €37/MWh, the bank noted.

Economic and Policy Implications

The renewed price surge raises concerns about its economic impact, with higher energy costs threatening household budgets and industrial competitiveness. Energy-intensive sectors in Europe may struggle to compete with counterparts in regions with cheaper energy, while inflationary pressures could hinder economic recovery.

Policymakers may face growing calls to subsidize energy costs or accelerate investments in renewable energy to mitigate reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets.

Despite the current surge, European gas prices remain well below the record highs of nearly €350/MWh during the 2022 energy crisis, highlighting the progress made in stabilizing supply but underscoring the lingering vulnerabilities in the energy market.

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Alphabet Plans Rare 100-Year Bond as Investor Demand Surges Amid AI Spending Push

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“Google’s parent company Alphabet is offering a rare 100-year bond in sterling markets after its original $20bn (€16.8bn) US dollar bond sale was massively oversubscribed. This makes it the first tech company to sell a century bond since Motorola in 1997.”

Alphabet is moving ahead with plans to issue a highly unusual 100-year bond in the sterling market, following overwhelming investor interest in its recent US dollar bond sale. The technology giant intends to raise about £1 billion (€1.15 billion) through the century bond, marking a notable return of ultra-long corporate debt in the technology sector.

Reports indicate the sterling offering has already attracted orders approaching ten times the amount Alphabet plans to raise. The move follows a major bond sale earlier this week in which Alphabet raised $20 billion (€16.8 billion) in US dollar-denominated debt. The original target of $15 billion (€12.6 billion) was increased after investor demand exceeded $100 billion (€84 billion).

The company is preparing to issue debt across several currencies as it seeks to broaden its funding sources. Alongside the sterling century bond, Alphabet is reportedly exploring a bond sale in Swiss francs. The planned offering would mark the first time a technology company has issued a 100-year bond in nearly three decades. Motorola last sold a century bond in 1997.

Alphabet’s US dollar debt package was divided into seven segments, with the longest maturity extending to 40 years and scheduled to mature in 2066. Pricing for the bonds is expected to be slightly tighter than initially projected, reflecting strong investor interest. The greatest demand was recorded for shorter-term bonds, with three-year securities priced at only 0.27 percent above US Treasury yields.

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The bond sales are being managed by JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, which are coordinating the company’s multi-currency fundraising effort.

Industry analysts say issuing debt in multiple currencies allows Alphabet to reach a broader pool of investors while managing borrowing costs. Sterling markets currently offer relatively lower interest rates compared with US dollar markets, which could help make the century bond more attractive and cost-efficient for the company.

Alphabet’s borrowing activity comes as technology companies increase spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company recently announced plans to invest more than $185 billion (€155 billion) in capital expenditure tied largely to artificial intelligence development and expansion of cloud computing services.

To support this spending, Alphabet’s long-term debt has grown sharply, reaching $46.5 billion (€39 billion) in 2025. Despite this increase, the company maintains strong liquidity, holding more than $125 billion in cash reserves.

Other major technology firms have also raised large amounts of debt to finance AI investments. Oracle recently secured $25 billion (€21 billion) in a bond sale that attracted record investor demand. Financial analysts estimate technology hyperscalers could borrow around $400 billion (€335.7 billion) in 2026, more than double the total borrowed in 2025. The increase could push overall issuance of high-grade US corporate bonds to record levels this year.

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Consortium Agrees to All-Cash Deal to Acquire Polish Parcel Company InPost

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A consortium of investors has reached an agreement to acquire all shares of Polish-founded parcel locker company InPost, betting on the growth of self-service delivery across Europe. The deal is structured as an all-cash public offer valued at €15.6 per share.

The consortium includes funds managed or advised by Advent International, FCWB LLC—a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx Corporation—A&R Investments Ltd., and PPF Group, together with InPost itself. The agreement is conditional and recommended by the InPost board.

InPost is best known for its proprietary Paczkomat parcel machines, widely used across Poland. These white self-service lockers, often located in subway stations or local shops, allow customers to send and receive small and medium parcels independently, bypassing traditional courier methods.

“Together, we will strengthen our network and reach more consumers with enhanced fast and flexible delivery options as we continue our objective of redefining the European e-commerce sector,” said Rafał Brzoska, CEO and founder of InPost. Brzoska confirmed he will remain as chief executive, and the company’s headquarters, management team, and key innovation operations will continue to be based in Poland.

“Importantly, I remain fully committed to leading the InPost Group. Our headquarters, management team and key innovation capabilities will remain in Poland, which will continue to be the centre for implementing the group’s successful strategy,” Brzoska added.

InPost has been expanding its footprint internationally. In the UK, the company acquired a 95.5% stake in competitor Yodel last year. It also operates in Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Spain, and Portugal, managing parcel deliveries for online vendors across multiple European markets.

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Following the completion of the transaction, FedEx will become a shareholder in InPost, joining the other investors to guide the company’s growth strategy. Prior to the deal, InPost was owned by PPF Group, A&R Investments—funds controlled by Brzoska—and Advent International, with just over half of the shares held by other investors.

Analysts say the acquisition reflects the rising demand for self-service parcel solutions, particularly in Europe’s growing e-commerce sector. The all-cash nature of the deal underscores confidence in InPost’s operational model and its ability to scale across multiple countries.

InPost has built a reputation for innovation in last-mile delivery, offering convenient alternatives to home delivery and enabling retailers to meet the increasing expectations of online shoppers. The company’s continued expansion and strong market position in Poland and abroad make it a strategic target for investors seeking to capitalize on the shift toward automated parcel services.

With Brzoska remaining at the helm and the company’s operational base secure in Poland, InPost looks set to maintain its leadership in self-service delivery while leveraging the backing of global investors to expand further across Europe.

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Scandinavian Airlines Looks to AI and Consolidation for Growth Amid Industry Challenges

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The airline’s chief says artificial intelligence will help rebuild schedules during storms and improve efficiency in an industry that faces constant uncertainty. Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) is preparing for a new phase of growth while awaiting regulatory approval for its integration into the Air France-KLM group, according to President and CEO Anko van der Werff.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, van der Werff acknowledged the delay in the regulatory process. “We expect to get regulatory approval in the second half of the year,” he said. “I’m always a bit impatient… it’s a slow process.” He emphasized that many initiatives are effectively on hold, including joint ventures and partnerships that could unlock the benefits of a larger global network.

Despite industry consolidation, van der Werff is confident the SAS brand will remain strong. He sees the airline’s Scandinavian hubs, particularly Copenhagen, as a natural engine for growth amid capacity constraints elsewhere in the Air France-KLM network. “There will be real, real growth potential,” he said, predicting that travellers will “see more of SAS in the future than what you’re seeing today.”

The airline is also exploring the practical applications of artificial intelligence across operations. Van der Werff said SAS spent much of last year identifying “five big bets” for AI, with a focus on improving customer experience and operational efficiency. Handling disruptions during harsh Nordic winters is a key priority. “Occasionally we get hit by real snowstorms,” he said, describing days with “100 cancellations a day” and aircraft, crew, and passengers scattered across the network. AI, he noted, could rebuild schedules faster and more accurately than human teams alone.

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Van der Werff stressed that the aviation industry is moving beyond experimentation with AI toward tangible applications. While fully autonomous passenger aircraft remain a distant prospect, he highlighted smaller improvements such as optimising onboard supplies, reducing fuel use, and automating administrative tasks.

Disruption management, he said, is the most urgent area for AI implementation. “Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of passengers” may need rerouting during large-scale cancellations, and faster decision-making could reduce hotel stays, reposition aircraft and crews, and limit the ripple effects of delays. “How do you put that puzzle back together more quickly, more efficiently?” van der Werff asked.

Reflecting on the broader industry, he noted that uncertainty is constant, from health crises and financial shocks to geopolitical disruptions and fluctuating demand. “Something will always happen,” he said, citing events such as SARS, the financial crisis, and COVID-19.

Van der Werff called for faster decision-making in Europe to maintain competitiveness. “Europe needs to move faster,” he said, urging reduced bureaucracy and a clearer strategic vision to support innovation. Despite challenges, he remains optimistic about consolidation and technological advances, while highlighting the potential for Europe to embrace entrepreneurship and risk-taking once more.

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