Business
European Gas Prices Jump as Middle East Tensions Rattle LNG Markets
Gas prices in Europe surged on Tuesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted global energy flows and raised fears of tighter liquefied natural gas supplies, increasing concerns about the region’s fragile energy recovery.
Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract climbed above €60 per megawatt hour around 12:30 CET, a sharp rise from the low €30s recorded at the end of last week. The spike followed US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which unsettled global markets and renewed anxiety about potential supply disruptions.
“This has triggered immediate fears of reduced LNG availability to Europe, prompting a rush in spot markets and heightened risk premiums,” said Yousef M. Alshammari, president of the London College of Energy Economics.
Traders are closely watching LNG shipments from Qatar and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global energy trade. Any disruption to flows through the strait could tighten supply and intensify competition for cargoes, particularly between Europe and Asian buyers.
Europe has reduced its reliance on Russian pipeline gas since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, replacing much of that supply with seaborne LNG. While this shift has improved diversification, it has also increased dependence on global shipping routes and spot market cargoes, both of which can become volatile during geopolitical crises.
Qatar accounts for an estimated 12 to 14 percent of Europe’s LNG imports, making developments in the Gulf region particularly significant. Analysts at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel said that even though Europe is less dependent on Gulf oil and LNG than major Asian economies, it remains exposed to global price swings.
Gas storage levels add to the concern. European Union storage facilities are around 30 percent full, lower than at the same point last year. Germany’s inventories stood at about 21.6 percent in late February, with France also reporting levels in the low 20s. Lower reserves could complicate efforts to rebuild stocks ahead of next winter if high prices persist.
Alshammari warned that a prolonged period of elevated wholesale prices could eventually filter through to households and businesses. While many consumers are protected by fixed or regulated tariffs that adjust gradually, sustained prices above €50–60 per megawatt hour could push up electricity and heating bills in the coming months.
Energy-intensive industries such as chemicals, fertilisers, steel, glass and paper manufacturing are likely to face renewed cost pressures. Countries including Germany, Italy and the Netherlands could see competitiveness affected if prices remain high.
Lower-income households in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as parts of southern Europe, may also be vulnerable due to greater reliance on gas for heating and less energy-efficient housing. Governments may need to consider targeted measures if the current disruptions continue and market volatility persists.
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