Business

Prolonged Iran Conflict Could Weaken Euro and Trigger Recession, Economists Warn

Published

2 months ago

March 5, 2026

Economists are warning that the ongoing war in Iran could have severe consequences for the euro and the European economy if the conflict continues beyond the “four weeks” projected by former US President Donald Trump. The hostilities, which began at the end of February, have already triggered an energy price shock, affecting oil, petrol, diesel, and gas. Rising energy costs are hitting consumers and energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel, putting additional pressure on the German economy, which was already facing modest growth forecasts.

The euro, currently trading around $1.16, is under particular pressure. Economist Daniel Stelter warned that an extended conflict would further weaken a euro already affected by low growth, high debt, and political uncertainty. “Capital would flow into dollar investments considered safe,” he said. Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Bank, added that if the conflict disrupts oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, pushing the euro down to $1.10–$1.12 per dollar. This would represent a 5–8 percent drop, the lowest levels since the 2022–23 energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war.

Such a decline would make holidays in the US more expensive for Europeans and increase the cost of imports such as oil, electronics, and raw materials. Stelter warned of even more severe scenarios, suggesting that the euro could temporarily fall below parity with the dollar, reaching $0.90–$0.95, if the war leads to prolonged regional instability.

Germany could face particularly serious economic consequences. Stelter said higher energy prices act like an additional tax, reducing consumption and investment. In a prolonged blockade scenario, Germany could fall into a deep recession, with the wider eurozone at risk of at least a technical recession. Extended disruptions would also strain bond markets and interest rates, potentially forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to intervene more aggressively to prevent a debt crisis.

The war’s impact on global energy supplies could trigger an “energy black swan,” causing sudden shortages and price spikes that ripple through the global economy. German exports could collapse despite a weaker euro if higher energy prices reduce demand in major markets such as China, India, and the US.

The ECB faces a complex challenge: if the conflict is short-lived, it could lower interest rates to support growth. If the war drags on, inflationary pressures from energy prices would limit the bank’s ability to cut rates, leaving the euro under pressure and economic momentum stalled. Stelter said this scenario could lead to stagflation, with rising inflation and falling growth simultaneously.

A rapid end to hostilities within four to five weeks and minimal damage to critical energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar could help stabilize the euro. However, resistance from Iran’s leadership raises the risk of a prolonged conflict with serious economic implications for Europe.

Business

Swiss Workers Lead Europe’s Wage Rankings as East-West Pay Divide Persists

Published

19 hours ago

May 15, 2026

Web Reporter

Annual wages across Europe continue to show a sharp divide between higher-paying northern and western economies and lower-income countries in the south and east, according to new figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The OECD’s Taxing Wages 2026 report found that average annual gross salaries in Europe ranged from €18,590 in Turkey to €107,487 in Switzerland, making Switzerland the only European country where average wages exceed the €100,000 mark.

Iceland ranked second with annual wages of €85,950, while Luxembourg recorded the highest pay levels within the European Union at €77,844. Denmark and Netherlands completed the top five, with average wages of €71,961 and €69,028 respectively.

Among Europe’s largest economies, Germany led the way with average wages of €66,700, closely followed by the United Kingdom at €65,340. The figures for France, Italy and Spain were considerably lower, standing at €45,964, €36,594 and €32,678 respectively.

The report highlighted the continued gap between western and eastern European economies. Slovakia recorded the lowest wages within the EU at €19,590, while countries including Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Portugal all remained below the €25,000 threshold.

Nine EU countries reported average annual wages under €30,000, underlining the scale of income disparities across the bloc.

Economists say wage differences are shaped by productivity levels, industrial structure, labour market systems and living costs. Countries with strong finance and technology sectors, along with extensive collective bargaining systems, generally report higher salaries.

When wages are adjusted for purchasing power parity, which measures what salaries can actually buy in each country, the gap between European nations narrows noticeably.

In PPP-adjusted terms, Switzerland remained at the top with wages equivalent to 106,532 international dollars. Germany climbed significantly in the rankings, moving from seventh place in nominal terms to second place after purchasing power adjustments were applied. Luxembourg and the Netherlands also ranked highly.

Turkey saw the biggest improvement after the adjustment, jumping nine places from the bottom of the nominal wage rankings to 18th place. Analysts said lower living costs boosted the purchasing power of Turkish salaries despite relatively low nominal incomes.

By contrast, Iceland experienced one of the largest declines in PPP rankings due to its high cost of living, dropping from second to ninth place.

The OECD figures are based on full-time employees in sectors including manufacturing, retail, finance, construction and transport. Agriculture, education, healthcare and public administration were excluded from the calculations.

The report also noted that differences in income tax systems across Europe mean take-home pay can vary significantly even among countries with similar gross salary levels.

Business

Cristiano Ronaldo Invests in Streaming Platform Ahead of 2026 World Cup

Published

19 hours ago

May 15, 2026

Web Reporter

Football star Cristiano Ronaldo has expanded his growing business empire by taking a stake in the company behind Portuguese streaming platform LiveModeTV, adding sports media to a portfolio that already spans technology, hospitality, healthcare and entertainment.

The announcement was made on Thursday by the platform, which is operated by Brazilian media company LiveMode. LiveModeTV launched in Portugal in December 2025 as the company’s first international venture and focuses on streaming sports competitions online free of charge.

According to Portuguese sports outlet A Bola, the platform is set to broadcast 34 matches from the 2026 FIFA World Cup live and free for viewers in Portugal, including all matches involving the Portuguese national team.

In a statement shared with Bloomberg, Ronaldo said the partnership aimed to make major sporting events more accessible to fans through digital platforms and social media.

“Sport can change lives,” Ronaldo said, adding that the project seeks to expand the reach of top competitions through YouTube broadcasts and online content distributed across social media platforms.

LiveModeTV also highlighted plans to focus heavily on fan engagement ahead of the World Cup, which is now less than a month away.

“Together, we’re going to bring live football to YouTube in an innovative way, putting the fans at the centre of everything,” the platform said in a statement posted on Facebook.

The investment marks another step in Ronaldo’s steady expansion into business ventures away from the football pitch. The Portugal captain has built a broad portfolio in recent years under his CR7 brand while also investing in companies across multiple industries.

In media, Ronaldo holds stakes in Portuguese media group Medialivre and film studio UR-Marv, a partnership with British filmmaker Matthew Vaughn.

His football-related investments include a stake in Spanish club UD Almería. Ronaldo has also invested in artificial intelligence company Perplexity AI, hotel operator Grupo Pestana, and Insparya, which operates hair restoration clinics.

Additional holdings include investments in nutrition and software businesses as well as Portuguese porcelain manufacturer Vista Alegre.

The move into sports streaming comes as competition intensifies among broadcasters and digital platforms seeking younger audiences through online and mobile viewing. Ronaldo, one of the most followed athletes in the world on social media, is expected to play a major role in promoting LiveModeTV’s coverage during the World Cup.

Business

Europe Set to Deepen Dependence on US LNG as Russian Gas Phase-Out Accelerates, Report Finds

Published

3 days ago

May 13, 2026

Web Reporter

Europe is on track to rely heavily on the United States for its liquefied natural gas imports in 2026, with American supplies expected to account for nearly two-thirds of total LNG shipments to the continent, according to a new analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

The report, released on Wednesday, highlights how Europe’s energy landscape has been reshaped in the years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent geopolitical tensions, including disruptions linked to the war involving Iran. These developments have accelerated a shift away from Russian fossil fuels and increased dependence on alternative suppliers, particularly the United States.

IEEFA estimates that US LNG already made up about 57% of Europe’s imports in 2025, a significant rise compared with levels before the conflict. The organisation said the share is likely to grow further as additional long-term supply agreements come into effect and Europe continues to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.

The European Union is pursuing a policy under its REPowerEU framework to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027. Since 2022, member states have rapidly increased purchases of LNG, with the United States emerging as the dominant supplier.

While the shift has helped stabilise energy supplies during periods of disruption, the report warned that it has also created a new dependency risk. Concentrating imports from a single external supplier, even a reliable ally, could leave Europe exposed to future price shocks, political pressures, or supply constraints.

The IEEFA noted that US LNG typically costs more than pipeline gas due to liquefaction, transportation, and regasification expenses. It estimates that European countries spent about €117 billion on US LNG between early 2022 and mid-2025.

Despite rising imports, overall gas consumption in Europe has been declining. High energy prices, weaker industrial demand, energy conservation efforts, and the expansion of renewable energy sources have all contributed to reduced usage. In 2024, LNG imports fell as demand reached its lowest level in more than a decade, before rebounding in 2025 due to colder weather and efforts to refill storage facilities.

Some European policymakers have warned against replacing dependence on Russian energy with reliance on another dominant supplier. European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera has urged greater investment in renewable energy and electrification to reduce structural dependence on imported fossil fuels.

The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has also raised concerns about growing supply concentration linked to US LNG.

At the same time, countries such as Germany have expanded LNG infrastructure, including floating terminals, making them among the largest importers of US gas in Europe. However, analysts caution that continued expansion of import capacity may exceed long-term demand as Europe accelerates its energy transition toward cleaner sources.