Business
EBRD Warns of Slowing Growth in Europe Amid Chinese Competition and US Tariffs
Economic growth across countries where the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) operates is facing headwinds from mounting trade tensions, Chinese competition, and weakening global demand, according to the bank’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
Growth in the 43 economies where the EBRD invests rose from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent in the first half of 2025. However, the bank warned of a marked slowdown in the second half of the year, with Central Europe, the Baltics, South-Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean all expected to feel the pressure. The EBRD forecasts average output growth of 3.1 percent in 2025, easing slightly before rebounding to 3.3 percent in 2026.
The outlook is uneven across regions. Several Central European and Baltic economies are among the hardest hit. Slovenia’s growth forecast was sharply cut by 1.2 percentage points, with output now expected to expand by just 0.7 percent this year. The country suffered a steep drop in exports to the United States, equivalent to 1 percent of GDP. Hungary’s forecast was trimmed by 1 percent to 0.5 percent growth, as frozen European Union funds, rising financing costs, and spillovers from Germany’s industrial slowdown weighed heavily. Latvia and Estonia also faced downward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percent respectively.
By contrast, Poland’s outlook was upgraded, with growth now projected at 2.5 percent in 2025, supported by infrastructure spending, energy transition projects, and defence investments. Lithuania also saw an improvement in its 2026 forecast. “Countries that are diversified and have invested in public infrastructure, like Poland, are proving more resilient,” said EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik.
In Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Ukraine’s growth forecast was reduced by 0.8 percent to 2.5 percent, reflecting the impact of ongoing Russian aggression and weak harvests. In South-Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania, forecasts were cut by 0.3 percent for 2025 and 0.5 percent for 2026, with Romania highlighted as particularly vulnerable unless it can maximize EU funding.
Trade challenges loom large over Europe’s medium-term prospects. Nearly all EU exports to the US are subject to a 15 percent tariff as of August 2025, a measure expected to erode competitiveness despite a temporary boost from frontloaded shipments earlier this year. At the same time, competition from China is intensifying. “China now accounts for a quarter of global exports, more than Germany and the US combined, and is becoming a direct competitor for advanced European countries,” Javorcik noted.
Despite these risks, opportunities remain. Higher US tariffs on Chinese goods could allow Eastern European producers to capture market share, while Chinese foreign investment could bring technology transfers to European industries. Defence and infrastructure spending may also stimulate growth if channeled effectively.
“Spending on energy security, IT infrastructure, and developing next-generation defence systems could benefit the private sector and sustain long-term growth,” Javorcik added.
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