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EBRD Economies Show Resilience Amid Global Trade Disruptions

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As U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to reshape global commerce, countries within the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) region are expected to experience only limited direct effects. However, the ripple effects of slowing global growth and shifting investment patterns could pose challenges in the years ahead, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.

Global Growth Projections Lowered

The EBRD has revised its global growth projections for 2025 downward, reducing forecasts from 3.5% to 3.2%, citing ongoing uncertainty in international trade policies. The U.S. government’s recent threats to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside doubling levies on Chinese goods to 20%, have contributed to an uncertain trade environment that could impact investment and production worldwide.

“Uncertainty surrounding trade regulations can have a significant detrimental effect on trade, investment, and production,” the EBRD report states. Additionally, the economic impact of U.S. tariffs will depend on whether they are applied universally or selectively.

Limited Direct Impact, But Indirect Consequences Loom

While Eastern Europe and Central Asia have minimal direct exposure to U.S. trade restrictions, EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik highlighted the indirect effects that could weigh on economic performance.

“The direct effect of possible U.S. tariffs is going to be limited simply because relatively few countries in Eastern Europe or Central Asia export significant quantities to the U.S.,” Javorcik explained. “What’s going to matter more is the indirect effect.”

Slower economic growth in advanced European economies will have a spillover impact on their trading partners in EBRD regions. Additionally, U.S. policies may affect emerging markets through two key channels:

  1. Cuts to U.S. financial aid – Countries such as Ukraine, Lebanon, Moldova, and Mongolia could feel the effects of reduced U.S. support.
  2. Higher borrowing costs – With U.S. interest rates expected to remain high, borrowing costs on international markets will increase, particularly for countries with high external debt in foreign currencies.
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Foreign Investment Flows Shift to Connector Economies

The combination of U.S.-led trade tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine is reshaping foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns. Investment flows between Europe and Russia and between the West and China have declined significantly, leading to increased FDI in “connector economies”—countries that maintain strong ties with both Western and Eastern blocs.

“We are seeing a reconfiguration of global FDI flows,” said Javorcik. “There’s been a sharp decline in inflows to China and Germany, while investment in India has increased. What’s particularly striking is the surge in FDI to the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan—countries that pursue multi-vector geopolitical policies.”

Central Asia Emerges as a Key Beneficiary

Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus have experienced a significant rise in exports due to their role in intermediated trade. Compared to 2021, exports from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Georgia, and Armenia to the European Union have surged by 90% in 2024. However, total exports declined by 5% compared to 2023, indicating a slowdown in trade growth.

Javorcik pointed out that Central Asia is now the fastest-growing region among EBRD economies, expanding at twice the speed of other regions. This growth has been driven by declining inflation, rising real wages, and increased consumer spending.

“While real wages in EU-EBRD economies remain 9% below pre-Covid levels, wages in Central Asia and the Caucasus have significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels, boosting purchasing power and economic activity,” Javorcik added.

EBRD Expands Investments in Emerging Markets

The shifting global investment landscape has led to record EBRD commitments in Central Asia. In 2024, the bank invested €2.26 billion across 121 projects in six regional economies, signaling a strategic focus on emerging markets.

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Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty in Global Trade

As geopolitical tensions, evolving trade relationships, and U.S. policies continue to shape the global economy, the resilience of EBRD nations will depend on their ability to adapt to disruptions and attract diversified investments. While connector economies in Central Asia and the Middle East are benefiting from investment shifts, the long-term impact of global trade tensions remains uncertain.

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Fuel Prices Surge Across Europe as Middle East Crisis Pushes Oil Above $100

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Fuel prices across Europe have risen sharply in recent weeks following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with both petrol and diesel costs climbing significantly since late February.

The increase comes as Brent crude oil prices moved above $100 per barrel after a joint strike by the United States and Israel on Iran, triggering concerns about global energy supply. The rise in crude prices has quickly filtered down to consumers across European countries.

According to the European Commission, the average price of Euro-super 95 petrol in the European Union stood at €1.871 per litre at the end of March, while diesel reached €2.076 per litre. Compared to late February, petrol prices are about 15 percent higher, while diesel has surged by around 30 percent.

There are wide differences in fuel prices across EU member states. The Netherlands recorded the highest diesel prices at €2.46 per litre, followed by Denmark and Germany. Other countries with above-average diesel costs include Finland, Belgium, France and Ireland.

At the other end of the scale, Malta reported the lowest diesel price at €1.21 per litre, significantly below the EU average. Hungary, Slovenia and Bulgaria also ranked among the least expensive markets for diesel. In several countries including Spain, Slovakia and Croatia, diesel prices remained below €2 per litre.

Petrol prices show a similar pattern. The Netherlands again recorded the highest price at €2.33 per litre, with Denmark and Germany also among the most expensive. Greece and France reported petrol prices above €2 per litre as well.

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Malta had the lowest petrol price at €1.34 per litre, followed by Bulgaria. Other relatively cheaper markets included Slovenia, Hungary and Spain, where prices remained below €1.60 per litre.

The data also highlights the role of taxation in fuel pricing. Taxes account for a significant portion of costs across Europe, making up more than half of petrol prices and nearly 45 percent of diesel prices on average. The share varies by country, with Slovenia recording one of the highest tax proportions on petrol, while Bulgaria had one of the lowest.

Despite the shift toward cleaner energy, traditional fuels continue to dominate the European vehicle market. According to Eurostat, petrol-powered cars accounted for 66.6 percent of new registrations in 2024, followed by diesel vehicles at 16.9 percent and fully electric cars at 13.5 percent.

The latest rise in fuel costs underscores the continued sensitivity of European energy markets to geopolitical developments, with consumers facing increased expenses as global tensions persist.

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Oil Prices Surge as Strait of Hormuz Closure Shakes Markets

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The brief sigh of relief across global markets lasted barely a day. Brent crude climbed sharply back towards $100 a barrel on Thursday after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending a clear signal that the fragile Middle East ceasefire was already fracturing.

The global benchmark was trading at $98.61 a barrel in early afternoon dealings, up about 4 percent, after plunging as much as 16 percent the previous day to below $91. That earlier drop had been driven by optimism that a two-week pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran could ease tensions and stabilize energy flows.

Iran’s move to shut the strategic waterway followed Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which Tehran described as a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global energy supplies, carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure has raised immediate concerns among governments and businesses about supply disruptions and rising costs.

Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company Adnoc, said Iran appeared to be using control of the strait as a political tool rather than ensuring free navigation. Analysts say such actions could deepen uncertainty for industries that rely heavily on stable energy supplies.

Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory firm deVere, warned that the situation leaves a significant share of global oil flows exposed to geopolitical risk. For small and medium-sized businesses already dealing with high energy costs, the renewed volatility adds further pressure.

Stock markets reacted negatively to the developments. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent after posting strong gains the previous day, while Germany’s DAX dropped 1.4 percent and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.7 percent. In Asia, major indexes in Japan, South Korea, and China all closed lower.

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Wall Street, which had rallied strongly on Wednesday with the S&P 500 rising 2.5 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining nearly 3 percent, was expected to open lower as investor confidence weakened.

US President Donald Trump said American forces would remain in the Gulf until a lasting agreement is secured and respected, warning of serious consequences if the situation deteriorates further.

Meanwhile, Israel intensified its military operations in Lebanon, carrying out its heaviest strikes since the conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group escalated last month. Reports indicate that more than 250 people have been killed in the latest wave of attacks.

The renewed instability highlights the continued vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical tensions. With oil prices approaching $100 a barrel once again, businesses are facing renewed uncertainty, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and logistics that are highly sensitive to fuel costs.

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Spain Employment Hits Record as Social Security Enrolment Tops 22 Million

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Spain’s labour market reached a historic milestone in March, with Social Security enrolment surpassing 22 million contributors for the first time, driven by seasonal hiring linked to Easter and continued growth in the services sector.

New data released on Monday showed that the number of contributors, adjusted for seasonal variations, rose to 22,010,532 after 80,274 jobs were added during the month. In average terms, employment increased by 211,510 people, marking the largest rise ever recorded for a March period.

Unadjusted figures also reflected a record level, with more than 21.8 million people registered with Social Security. The government highlighted that the number of contributors has grown by nearly 3.4 million since 2018, pointing to sustained expansion in the labour market.

Officials said the latest gains were supported by increased activity during Easter Week, which traditionally boosts employment in tourism, hospitality and other service-related industries. Growth has also been noted in higher-skilled sectors, including information technology, science and professional services.

The data showed that female employment continues to rise, nearing 10.4 million, while permanent contracts have increased as a share of overall employment. Authorities linked these trends to labour reforms introduced in recent years aimed at improving job stability and workforce participation.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez acknowledged the milestone in a brief social media message before later praising workers in a video statement. He said the achievement reflected the efforts of millions of people contributing to the country’s economic progress.

The labour market report also indicated a modest improvement in unemployment. The number of jobless people fell by 0.9 percent in March to 2.42 million, the lowest level recorded for the month since 2008. Over the past year, unemployment has declined by more than 160,000.

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Second Vice-President and Employment Minister Yolanda Díaz said that both female and youth unemployment have reached historic lows. She attributed the positive results to structural changes in the labour market and policies designed to support job creation and stability.

Economists note that while seasonal factors played a role in the March figures, the broader trend points to continued resilience in Spain’s economy. Strong demand in services and ongoing improvements in employment conditions have helped sustain growth despite external uncertainties.

The latest figures underline the strength of Spain’s recovery in recent years, with employment reaching new highs and unemployment continuing its gradual decline.

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