Business
EBRD Economies Show Resilience Amid Global Trade Disruptions
As U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to reshape global commerce, countries within the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) region are expected to experience only limited direct effects. However, the ripple effects of slowing global growth and shifting investment patterns could pose challenges in the years ahead, according to the EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
Global Growth Projections Lowered
The EBRD has revised its global growth projections for 2025 downward, reducing forecasts from 3.5% to 3.2%, citing ongoing uncertainty in international trade policies. The U.S. government’s recent threats to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside doubling levies on Chinese goods to 20%, have contributed to an uncertain trade environment that could impact investment and production worldwide.
“Uncertainty surrounding trade regulations can have a significant detrimental effect on trade, investment, and production,” the EBRD report states. Additionally, the economic impact of U.S. tariffs will depend on whether they are applied universally or selectively.
Limited Direct Impact, But Indirect Consequences Loom
While Eastern Europe and Central Asia have minimal direct exposure to U.S. trade restrictions, EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik highlighted the indirect effects that could weigh on economic performance.
“The direct effect of possible U.S. tariffs is going to be limited simply because relatively few countries in Eastern Europe or Central Asia export significant quantities to the U.S.,” Javorcik explained. “What’s going to matter more is the indirect effect.”
Slower economic growth in advanced European economies will have a spillover impact on their trading partners in EBRD regions. Additionally, U.S. policies may affect emerging markets through two key channels:
- Cuts to U.S. financial aid – Countries such as Ukraine, Lebanon, Moldova, and Mongolia could feel the effects of reduced U.S. support.
- Higher borrowing costs – With U.S. interest rates expected to remain high, borrowing costs on international markets will increase, particularly for countries with high external debt in foreign currencies.
Foreign Investment Flows Shift to Connector Economies
The combination of U.S.-led trade tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine is reshaping foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns. Investment flows between Europe and Russia and between the West and China have declined significantly, leading to increased FDI in “connector economies”—countries that maintain strong ties with both Western and Eastern blocs.
“We are seeing a reconfiguration of global FDI flows,” said Javorcik. “There’s been a sharp decline in inflows to China and Germany, while investment in India has increased. What’s particularly striking is the surge in FDI to the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan—countries that pursue multi-vector geopolitical policies.”
Central Asia Emerges as a Key Beneficiary
Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus have experienced a significant rise in exports due to their role in intermediated trade. Compared to 2021, exports from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Georgia, and Armenia to the European Union have surged by 90% in 2024. However, total exports declined by 5% compared to 2023, indicating a slowdown in trade growth.
Javorcik pointed out that Central Asia is now the fastest-growing region among EBRD economies, expanding at twice the speed of other regions. This growth has been driven by declining inflation, rising real wages, and increased consumer spending.
“While real wages in EU-EBRD economies remain 9% below pre-Covid levels, wages in Central Asia and the Caucasus have significantly surpassed pre-pandemic levels, boosting purchasing power and economic activity,” Javorcik added.
EBRD Expands Investments in Emerging Markets
The shifting global investment landscape has led to record EBRD commitments in Central Asia. In 2024, the bank invested €2.26 billion across 121 projects in six regional economies, signaling a strategic focus on emerging markets.
Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty in Global Trade
As geopolitical tensions, evolving trade relationships, and U.S. policies continue to shape the global economy, the resilience of EBRD nations will depend on their ability to adapt to disruptions and attract diversified investments. While connector economies in Central Asia and the Middle East are benefiting from investment shifts, the long-term impact of global trade tensions remains uncertain.
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