China has set its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 5% for 2025, maintaining the same goal as last year despite escalating trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainties. The announcement came during the annual Two Sessions government meeting, where Chinese leaders also unveiled a series of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the economy.
Increased Deficit and Lower Inflation Target
As part of its Government Work Report, Beijing has raised its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, marking the highest level in three decades. This move aligns with its “highly proactive” fiscal policy stance, which was initially outlined in January.
Additionally, the government has lowered its inflation target to 2% from 3% in 2024, the lowest in more than two decades, reflecting concerns over sluggish domestic demand and a slowing economy.
The Two Sessions—the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)—are expected to conclude on March 11, with more economic policies set to be discussed.
Beijing Announces New Stimulus Measures
To support economic growth, China has unveiled a range of stimulus measures, including:
- 4.4 trillion yuan (€570 billion) in special-purpose bonds for infrastructure projects.
- 1.3 trillion yuan (€168 billion) in ultra-long special Treasury bonds to finance long-term projects.
- 500 billion yuan (€65 billion) in special sovereign bonds to strengthen the country’s largest commercial banks.
The government has also announced policies to boost domestic consumption, support the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, and expand renewable energy projects. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to stimulate domestic demand, particularly as trade risks grow due to tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Additionally, China plans to expand cross-border e-commerce to push for more exports, with new supporting policies set to be introduced.
US-China Trade War Escalates
The latest round of stimulus measures comes amid a widening trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Last month, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which was doubled to 20% on Tuesday.
In retaliation, China has announced a 15% tariff on U.S. agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, alongside a 10% tariff on soy, pork, beef, fruits, and vegetables. These duties will take effect on March 10.
This follows Beijing’s first round of retaliatory tariffs in February, which targeted U.S. liquefied natural gas, crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles.
The escalating trade war, combined with tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada, has led to sharp declines in global stock markets. Trump acknowledged the economic impact of his tariff strategy but downplayed concerns, stating in a Congressional address that the U.S. is “okay with that.”
Chinese Markets Rebound as Copper Prices Surge
Despite the trade tensions, Chinese markets showed resilience on Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index rebounded nearly 2%, snapping a four-day losing streak, while all three mainland stock benchmarks posted gains.
In the commodities market, copper futures surged 1.6%, driven by Beijing’s additional stimulus measures aimed at infrastructure and AI projects. As the world’s largest copper importer, China’s increased demand has lifted prices, benefiting global manufacturers and electric vehicle producers.
However, crude oil prices remained near yearly lows, weighed down by OPEC+’s recent decision to increase supply.
Looking Ahead
With trade tensions rising and economic headwinds persisting, China’s leadership faces mounting pressure to stabilize growth and shield its economy from external risks. The next phase of economic policies will likely focus on strengthening domestic industries, securing alternative trade partnerships, and ensuring financial stability amid ongoing global uncertainties.