Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 (€96,300) mark on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in the US dollar. However, concerns over low trading volumes and the absence of fresh catalysts have left analysts questioning the sustainability of the rally.
The cryptocurrency gained 4% on Monday, marking its first return above the $100,000 threshold since December 19. By early Tuesday during the Asian trading session, Bitcoin had climbed further, trading at $101,670 (€97,900) as of 4:30 am CET.
Renewed Investor Interest
The market witnessed over $900 million (€867 million) in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows on Monday, signaling a resurgence in investor confidence. Despite this, data from Coinbase indicated that institutional buying volumes remained subdued, suggesting that the rally may be short-lived without stronger support.
Dollar Decline Sparks Market Optimism
Bitcoin’s rise coincided with a sharp drop in the US dollar index, which fell by more than 1% intraday—the steepest decline since 2023—following a report by The Washington Post suggesting that President-elect Donald Trump might soften his tariff stance. The report briefly boosted global stock markets and cryptocurrencies, with the euro posting its largest single-day gain against the dollar in 14 months.
However, Trump later denied the report, asserting on his Truth Social account that his tariff policy would remain unchanged. The dollar regained some ground and is expected to strengthen further in the lead-up to Trump’s inauguration on January 20, potentially pressuring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Year-End Decline and Fed Policy Impact
Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop in December, falling approximately 16% from its mid-month peak of $108,000 (€104,000) to end the year at $91,000 (€86,700). Analysts attributed the decline to profit-taking and thin holiday trading volumes.
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut in December also played a role, as its projections indicated only two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, dampening expectations of a more significant monetary policy shift.
Market Optimism for 2025
Despite the recent volatility, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance in 2025. Josh Gibert, a market analyst at eToro Australia, remarked last week, “Bitcoin’s and crypto’s performance in 2024 solidifies its place within a diversified investment portfolio.”
Option markets also indicate bullish sentiment, with high interest in a $120,000 (€115,600) call option expiring on March 28. Traders are betting that the Trump administration will enact pro-cryptocurrency policies, including relaxed regulations and integrating Bitcoin into the US strategic reserves—an initiative Trump reiterated in December.
As the President-elect’s inauguration approaches, the market eagerly awaits policy announcements that could shape the future of cryptocurrency and potentially push Bitcoin to new heights.