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Europe Faces Tough Winter as Low Gas Stocks and Rising Prices Raise Household Bill Risks

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Europe is heading towards one of its most difficult winter gas seasons since the energy crisis of 2022, with wholesale prices rising sharply while gas storage levels remain well below their normal seasonal average.

The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month gas price was trading above €66 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, after briefly exceeding €68. At the start of 2026, the price was around €29 per MWh.

The latest increase has been driven partly by concerns that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could continue into the winter, limiting energy supplies and intensifying competition for liquefied natural gas.

EU gas storage was 62.99% full at the end of August 24, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. That compares with a five-year average of about 79%.

Germany’s storage facilities were around 51% full, while the Netherlands had filled only 44.3% of available capacity.

Natasha Fielding, editorial manager for gas, LNG, coal and biomass at Argus Media, said European stocks were unusually low for this point of the year. She noted that the last period with similarly low levels was in 2021, before the previous major gas crisis.

European gas consumption is now around 15% to 20% below 2021 levels, according to Oxford Economics. The consultancy said this means the bloc can operate with less gas in storage, although it would need greater reliance on winter LNG imports.

That could create stronger competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has added to those concerns because the waterway normally handles a significant share of global LNG shipments.

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Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that gas prices could rise above €100 per MWh in December if Middle Eastern energy exports recover only gradually through 2027.

A prolonged price increase would eventually reach households, although the impact would not be immediate. Existing contracts, hedging arrangements and fixed-price deals can delay the effect of wholesale market movements.

Oxford Economics estimates that it takes about six months on average for wholesale gas price changes to be fully reflected in consumer prices. The timing varies considerably between countries.

In the Netherlands, household prices can respond relatively quickly because of the structure of the retail market. In Germany and Austria, widespread 12-month or 24-month fixed contracts mean the full impact can take close to a year.

France, Italy and Spain could see consumer prices respond within several months.

Italy is considered particularly exposed to a gas price shock because of its high dependence on gas and relatively quick pass-through to consumers, although its storage levels are currently among Europe’s strongest.

Weather will remain a major factor. A colder-than-normal winter would increase heating demand and put additional pressure on already limited supplies, potentially pushing household energy costs higher across the continent.

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US Expands Iran Sanctions, Putting Global Companies on Notice

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The United States has expanded sanctions aimed at cutting Iran off from the global financial system, warning companies around the world that continuing to do business with Tehran could put their access to the US dollar at risk.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the campaign as an “economic onslaught” against Iran’s remaining financial connections. He also said he expected a major financial institution to be sanctioned before the end of the week.

The latest measures, described by Washington as Operation Economic Outcast, target almost 60 companies, individuals and vessels across several countries. Chinese nationals are among those affected. The Treasury has also withdrawn licences that previously allowed limited transactions involving Iran.

The new approach expands the threat of secondary sanctions beyond Iran’s oil industry. Shipping, aviation, gold, technology and digital assets are now among the sectors facing greater scrutiny.

Bessent said companies that help move money for Iran could be excluded from the US dollar system. When asked whether China could be targeted, he said no entity would be exempt from the measures.

Washington has not imposed penalties directly on a third country under the latest measures, instead giving companies time to adjust their activities. Bessent did not provide a specific deadline but warned that the United States would not wait indefinitely.

President Donald Trump has also been contacting foreign leaders as Washington seeks to persuade them to reduce or end commercial ties with Iran.

Iran has promised to respond and said it expects major trading partners to resist US pressure.

For European companies, direct exposure to Iran remains relatively small. European Union trade in goods with Iran was worth about €3.72 billion in 2025, with EU exports accounting for €2.97 billion. That represented around 0.1% of the bloc’s total exports, a sharp decline from more than €27 billion in trade recorded in 2011.

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Germany accounted for about 32% of EU-Iran trade, followed by Italy with 16% and the Netherlands with 15%. European exports to Iran mainly include pharmaceuticals, machinery and medical equipment, while imports are largely food products such as pistachios.

European financial markets showed little immediate reaction to the announcement, with major indexes trading modestly higher on Tuesday.

The larger concern for European businesses is the effect of US sanctions on international banking and trade networks. Banks, insurers, shipping firms and commodity traders can face penalties because of transactions involving sanctioned entities, even when their own operations are outside Iran.

European companies remember the case of BNP Paribas, which paid $8.9 billion in 2014 after processing transactions involving Iran, Sudan and Cuba.

The latest US measures are therefore likely to force international businesses to weigh their limited Iranian trade against the much larger importance of maintaining access to the US financial system.

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Spanish workers spend equivalent of 231 days paying taxes

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Spain’s Tax Freedom Day fell on August 20 this year, according to Fundación Civismo, meaning the average worker had theoretically earned enough income by that date to cover their annual tax and social security burden.

The Spanish liberal think tank estimates that the average worker spends 231 days of the year covering taxes and social contributions in 2026, two more days than last year. The figure has risen sharply since 2018, when Fundación Civismo calculated that Tax Freedom Day fell on June 27 after 177 days.

That represents a shift of 54 days over eight years.

Fundación Civismo attributed the change to several factors, including income tax brackets that have not kept pace with inflation, higher social security contributions, the restoration of some higher VAT rates and additional regional and municipal taxes.

The organization calculates the tax burden by considering the total cost of employing a typical worker. Its reference example involves an employee earning a gross annual salary of €32,446. Including employer contributions, the worker costs the company €42,390.70.

Of that amount, the employee is estimated to receive €24,724.91 in take-home pay. About €17,665.79, representing 41.7 percent of the total employment cost, goes toward income tax and employee and employer social security contributions.

The calculation means that workers receive approximately €58.30 for every €100 spent by an employer on their employment.

The foundation also argues that inflation can increase the effective tax burden even when workers experience little real wage growth. When tax brackets remain unchanged while salaries rise, employees can move into higher tax bands without experiencing a comparable improvement in purchasing power.

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VAT adds another significant cost. Fundación Civismo estimates that the average worker pays around €2,213 a year in VAT, equivalent to almost 33 days of net income.

The study also counts local property tax, vehicle taxes, inheritance and gift taxes and other charges under what it calls “silent taxation”. These are estimated at about €4,110 a year, representing more than two months of the model worker’s net income.

Tax Freedom Day differs across Spain’s autonomous communities because of variations in regional income taxes, deductions and local charges. The Basque Country recorded the earliest date at August 14, followed by Madrid on August 15. Catalonia and Extremadura had the latest dates, both on August 26.

However, Tax Freedom Day is not an official government indicator. Critics argue that the calculation treats taxes purely as a cost without accounting for public services such as healthcare, education and pensions.

Spain’s official tax-to-GDP ratio stood at about 38 percent in 2025, according to Eurostat data cited in the report, compared with 35.2 percent in 2019.

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Bitcoin Surges Past $79,500 as Short Covering and US Crypto Support Fuel Rally

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Bitcoin surged above $79,500 on Friday, marking its strongest level in months as traders rushed to close bearish positions and signals from Washington pointed to easier financial conditions and stronger support for the cryptocurrency industry.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $79,500 before retreating to around $77,700. The move left Bitcoin more than 25% higher than it was at the start of the week, making it one of the digital asset’s sharpest weekly rallies in years.

Bitcoin had spent much of 2026 struggling to regain momentum after falling from its record high of about $126,000 reached in October last year. The cryptocurrency dropped to roughly $57,600 in early July and then traded in a narrow range between $62,000 and $66,000 for six consecutive weeks.

The prolonged weakness encouraged traders to increase bets that Bitcoin would fall further. Once the cryptocurrency broke above its recent trading range this week, those positions were rapidly unwound, creating a wave of forced short covering that accelerated the price increase.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, and other digital assets also gained as traders moved back into riskier assets.

Market momentum was strengthened by signs of additional liquidity from the US Treasury. The department doubled the size of its bond buybacks earlier this week in an effort to ease pressure in the Treasury market. When bond yields rose again, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the government could increase the buybacks further.

Lower borrowing costs, improved liquidity and a weaker dollar can encourage investors to put more money into assets considered riskier, including cryptocurrencies.

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Regulatory developments in Washington also supported the rally. On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets”, which would introduce lighter registration requirements for some cryptocurrency issuers.

President Donald Trump added to the industry’s optimism when he hosted several major crypto executives at the White House on Wednesday. Among those attending were Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong, Ripple Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse and Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

Trump urged lawmakers to approve the long-delayed Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. The legislation would divide regulatory responsibility for digital assets between the SEC and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It passed the House last year but remains stalled in the Senate, where it will face a key procedural vote on September 15.

Trump’s comments also sparked a sharp move in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. He said the CFTC was working to bring the decentralised derivatives exchange onshore in a fully compliant manner.

HYPE jumped about 25% within 24 hours of the remarks and was trading near $74, more than 30% above its level before Trump’s comments. Hyperliquid has become a closely watched example of how far the administration’s more supportive approach to the crypto sector could extend.

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