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Eurozone Inflation Surges on Energy Shock, ECB Faces Tough Decisions

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Consumer prices in the eurozone jumped at their fastest monthly pace since October 2022, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran conflict. Economists are divided over whether the European Central Bank will respond with an interest-rate hike.

Eurostat’s flash estimate on Tuesday showed annual inflation rose to 2.5 percent in March, up from 1.9 percent in February. Month-on-month, prices increased 1.2 percent, marking the steepest monthly rise since October 2022. Energy prices were the main driver, climbing 4.9 percent year-on-year after falling 3.1 percent in February. Brent crude has surpassed $110 per barrel, while European natural gas prices have surged roughly 80 percent year-to-date.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, actually eased slightly to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent. Services inflation fell to 3.2 percent, and non-energy industrial goods dropped to 0.5 percent, suggesting the spike is primarily a first-round energy shock.

The impact of rising prices varies across the bloc. Croatia recorded the highest annual inflation at 4.7 percent, followed by Lithuania at 4.5 percent, Ireland at 3.6 percent, and Spain and Greece at 3.3 percent. Germany saw a rise to 2.8 percent, up 0.8 points from February. Italy and France reported 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Analysts say these differences reflect how energy costs reach consumers, with Italy relying heavily on natural gas, Spain’s short-term tariffs passing wholesale spikes quickly, and France’s nuclear generation and regulated electricity contracts limiting spillover.

The inflation rebound has reignited debate over the ECB’s next move. President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that even a temporary overshoot could warrant action but stressed that the bank would be guided by data, not forecasts.

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Market expectations indicate a 36 percent chance of an April rate hike, with June priced at a 76 percent probability for a 25-basis-point increase. Analysts at ABN AMRO expect two “insurance hikes” this year to anchor inflation expectations, while Bank of America sees rate hikes more likely later in the summer, depending on the persistence of the energy shock.

Economists note that households and firms remember the 2022 inflation surge vividly, which may influence consumer behavior and slow spending. BNP Paribas predicts core inflation will remain stable through the second quarter, assuming Brent stays above $100 per barrel and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed without major infrastructure damage.

The ECB faces a difficult balance: act now to prevent inflation expectations from rising or wait for evidence that the energy shock is feeding into the broader economy. March’s data shows that while headline inflation has surged, core pressures have not yet intensified, giving policymakers some room for caution.

If oil prices remain elevated and energy costs continue to feed into the broader economy, the ECB may have little choice but to tighten policy in the coming months, even as it weighs the potential impact on growth.

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SpaceX Targets Record $75 Billion IPO in Landmark Market Debut

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SpaceX has unveiled plans for a historic stock market debut, seeking to raise up to $75 billion through an initial public offering that could become the largest IPO ever recorded and further cement founder Elon Musk’s position among the world’s wealthiest individuals.

The aerospace company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., announced on Wednesday that it intends to offer 555.6 million shares at $135 each. The proposed sale would value the company at approximately $1.77 trillion, placing it among the most valuable publicly traded firms globally.

If completed as planned, the offering would surpass the record $26 billion raised by Saudi Aramco during its 2019 market debut. The listing is expected to draw significant attention from investors eager to gain exposure to one of the most influential private companies in the technology and aerospace sectors.

The IPO would substantially increase the value of Musk’s holdings in the company. Estimates suggest his stake could rise by more than $220 billion, potentially pushing his paper net worth beyond the $1 trillion mark. Despite the public offering, Musk is expected to maintain firm control over SpaceX through Class B shares, which carry enhanced voting rights. Company filings indicate he would retain more than 80 percent of voting power after the listing.

The ambitious offering comes despite ongoing financial losses. Regulatory filings show SpaceX recorded an operating loss of $2.6 billion last year on revenue of $18.7 billion. The company reported that losses have continued into the early months of 2026 as it invests heavily in expansion projects.

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SpaceX said proceeds from the IPO would help finance a range of long-term initiatives, including the expansion of its Starlink satellite internet network, development of advanced rocket technology and infrastructure investments tied to artificial intelligence. The company also reaffirmed its long-term vision of establishing a permanent human settlement on Mars, a goal Musk has championed for years.

Artificial intelligence has emerged as a key component of SpaceX’s future strategy. In its filing, the company highlighted the growing global AI market and outlined plans to integrate the technology across various operations. Some proposed projects, including space-based data centers, remain in early stages and have yet to be proven commercially viable.

Industry analysts view the SpaceX listing as a major test for public markets after several years of relatively subdued IPO activity. The offering could also pave the way for other high-profile technology firms to pursue public listings.

SpaceX plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “SPCX,” with shares potentially beginning trading as early as next week. Investors will be closely watching whether the company can justify its enormous valuation while pursuing its ambitious goals in space exploration, satellite communications and artificial intelligence.

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EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast as Middle East Conflict Drives Inflation and Energy Shock

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Economic growth across regions covered by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is set to slow more sharply than previously expected, as rising energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East push inflation higher and weaken momentum across emerging markets.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD said aggregate growth across its regions is now projected at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025 and 0.5 percentage points below its earlier February forecast. Growth is expected to recover modestly to 3.6% in 2027, although that too has been revised slightly lower.

The bank, which finances projects across central and eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, said the outlook has been disrupted by surging oil and gas prices, instability in shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and widening energy cost gaps between Europe and the United States.

The EBRD estimated that growth across its economies slowed to 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026, with weaker-than-expected performance recorded in several large markets including Egypt, Kazakhstan, Romania, Turkey and Ukraine.

Chief economist Beata Javorcik said the latest shock has hit already fragile economies. “The conflict in the Middle East has delivered a new shock to regions already navigating weakness in manufacturing industries and fragile fiscal positions,” she said.

Inflation has also reaccelerated after easing late last year. The EBRD reported that average inflation across its regions rose to 6.4% between February and April 2026, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. Higher energy and food costs were identified as the primary drivers, while currency depreciation against the US dollar added further pressure in several economies.

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The bank warned that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected, particularly in emerging markets where households spend a larger share of income on food and energy compared with advanced economies.

To cushion the impact, nearly two-thirds of EBRD economies have introduced measures such as fuel price caps, tax relief and targeted subsidies. However, the bank cautioned that these steps are placing additional strain on public finances at a time when borrowing costs are already rising.

Higher energy bills, tighter global financial conditions and elevated debt levels are compounding fiscal pressures across many member countries.

Looking ahead, the EBRD warned that a prolonged conflict could further disrupt supply chains, push energy prices higher and weaken investment flows. Such developments, it said, would weigh on already subdued growth prospects across its regions.

For now, policymakers face a difficult balance between supporting households and maintaining fiscal stability, as external shocks continue to reshape the economic outlook.

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Anthropic Moves Toward IPO, Signaling Possible First Major Public Listing in Generative AI Race

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Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has taken a significant step toward a public market debut, filing confidential paperwork with US regulators in a move that could see it become the first major generative AI firm to list on Wall Street.

The company confirmed on Monday that it had submitted a draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering of its common stock. Anthropic said the filing allows it to move forward with an IPO once regulatory review is complete, while stressing that timing, valuation and share pricing will depend on market conditions.

The development places Anthropic in a potential lead position over rivals OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI-backed ventures, as leading AI companies edge closer to public markets amid intense investor interest in the sector.

“I think we were all expecting OpenAI to go first, so it was a little bit surprising,” said Patrick Corrigan, a law professor at Notre Dame University who studies IPOs. He noted that a near-simultaneous arrival of major AI listings could give investors a direct basis for comparison. “There seems to be a bit of a first-mover’s advantage here,” he added.

Founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, Anthropic has rapidly grown into one of the most valuable private technology firms. The company recently reported raising $65bn in private funding, giving it a valuation of around $965bn. That figure places it ahead of OpenAI’s most recently disclosed valuation of about $852bn following a major fundraising round earlier this year.

Anthropic also said it is now generating an annualised revenue rate of $47bn, driven by growing enterprise demand for its Claude AI models, which are used for coding, content creation and workplace automation. The company released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.8, last week, highlighting improvements in software development and professional applications.

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The IPO filing arrives during a broader resurgence in global listing activity. According to KPMG, companies raised $42.6bn through 251 IPOs in the first quarter of 2026, a 45% increase year on year, with investors favouring fewer but larger deals. Analysts say artificial intelligence and space technology firms are expected to dominate upcoming listings.

Industry observers suggest Anthropic’s move could accelerate IPO plans across the AI sector. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives described the development as a potential catalyst for renewed activity in public markets, where technology listings have been subdued in recent years.

However, concerns remain over valuations and profitability across leading AI companies, which continue to invest heavily in computing infrastructure and model development without sustained earnings.

Some analysts compare the current wave of AI enthusiasm to the early internet era, when rapid innovation produced both long-term winners and high-profile failures. While optimism remains strong, questions persist over whether market expectations are running ahead of underlying financial fundamentals.

For now, Anthropic’s filing marks a pivotal moment in the competition among leading AI firms, setting the stage for what could become one of the most closely watched IPO races in recent technology history.

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