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Oil Surge and War Fears Weigh on Global Markets as Investors Brace for Prolonged Conflict

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Global financial markets showed signs of strain on Monday as oil prices surged sharply amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, raising concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Benchmark Brent crude climbed above $116 a barrel in early trading, marking a rise of more than 50 percent since the conflict began on 28 February, when prices were just over $70. The increase reflects growing fears over supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil shipments.

European stock markets opened lower but showed mixed performance by the afternoon. DAX in Germany was slightly down, while the FTSE 100 in United Kingdom recovered earlier losses to trade higher. France’s CAC 40 also edged into positive territory.

The uncertain mood followed declines across Asia, where major indices dropped amid worries over rising energy costs and the possibility of further escalation. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell sharply, while markets in South Korea, Australia, and Hong Kong also posted losses.

Analysts say the duration of the conflict is becoming a key concern for investors. Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor said that reports of growing US troop deployments in the region have heightened fears of a possible ground operation, despite conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran.

Losses on Wall Street have added to the unease. US equities recorded a fifth consecutive weekly decline, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both entering correction territory after falling more than 10 percent from recent peaks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted declines, though to a lesser extent.

The surge in oil prices has been linked to geopolitical developments, including comments by Donald Trump about the possibility of US forces targeting Iran’s Kharg Island, a major oil export terminal. The remarks have fueled speculation about further military escalation and its potential impact on global energy supplies.

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Rising crude prices are already feeding into broader economic concerns. Analysts warn that sustained high energy costs could push inflation higher worldwide, complicating efforts by central banks to stabilize growth.

In response to the mounting risks, finance and energy officials from the G7 are scheduled to hold an emergency meeting to assess the situation and coordinate potential responses. It marks the fourth such high-level discussion since the conflict began.

Investors remain cautious as markets attempt to gauge the trajectory of the conflict and its economic fallout. The combination of volatile energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and weakening equity markets is expected to keep sentiment fragile in the days ahead.

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Europe’s Cooling Energy Demand Doubles as Record Heatwaves Drive Air Conditioning Use

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Household energy consumption for cooling across the European Union has nearly doubled in six years as rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves increase reliance on air conditioning, according to new data highlighting the growing impact of climate change on energy demand.

The figures come as June 2026 became the hottest June ever recorded in western Europe and the second warmest globally, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Globally, 2024, 2023 and 2025 now rank as the three hottest years on record.

EU household energy consumption for space cooling climbed from 40.5 thousand terajoules (TJ) in 2018 to 80.4 thousand TJ in 2024, an increase of 99%. Compared with 2010, when consumption stood at just 15.5 thousand TJ, cooling-related energy use has surged by 420% over the past 14 years.

The increase has not been uniform across Europe. Austria recorded the largest percentage rise, with household cooling energy consumption jumping from 22 TJ in 2018 to 253 TJ in 2024, representing an increase of more than 1,000%. Analysts noted that such dramatic growth partly reflects the country’s previously low use of air conditioning.

Among EU member states, Czechia recorded a 244% increase, followed by Italy with a 193% rise. Energy consumption for cooling also more than doubled in Hungary, Finland, Spain, Slovenia and Greece during the same period.

In contrast, France registered a 52% increase, while Germany saw relatively modest growth of 8%.

Although cooling demand is rising rapidly, it still accounts for less than 1% of total household energy consumption across the EU, averaging 0.84% in 2024. The share is considerably higher in warmer regions.

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Cyprus recorded the highest proportion, with 16% of household energy used for cooling, followed by Malta at 15% and EU candidate country Albania at 13.4%. Greece devoted 7.4% of household energy to cooling, while Spain, Italy and Croatia also reported shares above 2%.

Italy remains the EU’s largest consumer of cooling energy, using 26.3 thousand TJ in 2024, equivalent to nearly one-third of the bloc’s total cooling energy demand. Spain ranked second with 14.3 thousand TJ, while Turkey, included among candidate countries, recorded the third-highest level.

The surge in cooling demand has already affected electricity markets. During the June 2026 heatwaves, power consumption rose sharply across Europe’s four largest economies. France experienced the largest increase, with grid operator RTE estimating that every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature adds between 0.7 and 1 gigawatt of electricity demand. Cooling needs alone contributed an estimated additional 10 to 14 gigawatts during the hottest days.

Higher electricity demand, combined with reduced wind generation in Germany and temporary cuts to French nuclear output caused by unusually warm river water, pushed wholesale electricity prices above €200 per megawatt-hour in Germany, nearly €160 in France and more than €110 in Spain.

Scientists continue to warn that Europe is warming at roughly twice the global average, making the continent increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat and placing growing pressure on energy systems as cooling becomes an essential part of daily life.

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China’s June Exports Surge 27% as AI Demand and Vehicle Shipments Boost Trade

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China’s exports posted stronger-than-expected growth in June, rising 27 percent from a year earlier as booming demand linked to artificial intelligence and robust overseas sales of vehicles and technology products lifted trade, according to data released by the country’s customs agency.

The June performance marked a sharp acceleration from the 19.4 percent annual increase recorded in May and exceeded economists’ expectations. Imports also gathered pace, climbing 36 percent year on year after a 27.4 percent rise in May. Analysts said higher import costs resulting from the conflict involving Iran contributed to the increase in import values.

China’s monthly trade surplus widened to $125.6 billion in June from $105.4 billion in May, reflecting continued strength in exports despite concerns about slowing domestic demand.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, said trade values experienced another significant increase during June.

“Trade values took another big leg up in June,” he said in a research note, adding that higher semiconductor prices driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence played a major role. He also noted that demand for Chinese goods remained resilient beyond the technology sector.

Exports of electric vehicles, conventional automobiles and other advanced technology products continued to support manufacturing activity as global investment in artificial intelligence increased demand for semiconductors, electronic components and related equipment.

The export sector has helped offset weaker domestic consumption and investment, which continue to face pressure from China’s prolonged property market downturn.

During the first six months of 2026, exports increased 17.6 percent compared with the same period last year, while imports rose 26.6 percent, according to customs figures.

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China’s expanding trade surplus has continued to draw attention from policymakers in the United States and Europe, where concerns have grown over widening trade imbalances. In response to higher tariffs and other trade barriers, many Chinese manufacturers have expanded production facilities overseas, particularly in Europe, while exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa have continued to grow.

June exports to Southeast Asia climbed nearly 35 percent from a year earlier. Shipments to the European Union increased by more than 18 percent, while exports to Latin America rose over 28 percent. Exports to the United States advanced almost 14 percent, partly reflecting weaker shipments during the same period last year after higher tariffs were introduced following President Donald Trump’s return to office.

Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at BNP Paribas Securities China, said export growth is expected to continue but warned that future performance remains vulnerable to changing global demand and regulatory measures affecting key industries such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence.

China is scheduled to release its April-to-June economic growth figures on Wednesday. The government has set a growth target of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent for 2026, slightly below the 5 percent expansion recorded last year. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 4.6 percent but expects growth to slow to 4.1 percent in 2027 as policymakers continue efforts to stimulate consumer spending.

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Property Taxes Across Europe Vary Widely, with Belgium Among the Costliest and Cyprus the Most Affordable

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Buying property in Europe can involve far more than the purchase price, as homeowners face a range of taxes from acquisition through ownership and eventual sale. A review by the Global Property Guide shows significant differences in how European countries tax real estate, with Belgium emerging as one of the most expensive markets for property owners, while Cyprus and Malta remain among the least heavily taxed.

Property owners across Europe may encounter four main taxes: transfer tax at the time of purchase, annual property tax, tax on rental income and capital gains tax when selling. The amount paid depends not only on tax rates but also on how each country calculates taxable values, making direct comparisons challenging.

Rental income taxes show some of the widest differences across the continent. For non-resident landlords earning €1,500 a month in rent, Denmark imposes the highest tax rate at 42.11 percent, followed by the Netherlands at 36 percent and Finland at 30 percent. Cyprus does not charge tax at that income level, while Luxembourg applies a rate of just 2.94 percent.

For higher rental income of €12,000 per month, Belgium records the highest tax burden at 47.27 percent. Denmark follows with 43.22 percent, while Germany and Greece each apply rates of 41 percent. Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands maintain relatively stable tax rates regardless of rental income, unlike countries with progressive tax systems such as Austria, where rental earnings are taxed alongside personal income.

Transfer taxes also differ sharply. Belgium charges up to 12.5 percent in some regions, meaning buyers of a €500,000 property could pay as much as €62,500 in tax before taking ownership. Regional incentives for owner-occupiers can reduce that amount, particularly in Wallonia and Brussels. At the opposite end of the scale, Estonia and the Czech Republic impose no transfer tax, while Lithuania’s acquisition costs are around 0.4 percent of the purchase price.

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Annual property taxes vary because countries use different methods to determine taxable values. Spain’s maximum property tax rate can reach 4.8 percent, although it is based on cadastral values rather than current market prices. In the United Kingdom, council tax on a home worth about €300,000 generally ranges between €2,000 and €3,200 annually. France, Belgium and Spain typically collect lower annual amounts because taxes are calculated using older assessed property values. Cyprus and Malta do not levy annual property taxes.

Capital gains taxes also differ considerably. Denmark taxes profits from property sales at rates of up to 52.07 percent when gains are included with personal income. Germany offers one of Europe’s most favourable systems, exempting gains entirely if the property has been owned for more than 10 years. Malta applies a different approach by charging a transaction tax on the sale price rather than taxing the capital gain itself.

The report concludes that Belgium remains one of Europe’s most heavily taxed property markets due to its combination of high purchase duties, rental income taxes and ongoing ownership costs. Cyprus and Malta continue to rank among the most attractive destinations for property investors because of their lighter tax regimes, highlighting the wide differences that remain across Europe’s real estate markets.

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