Business
Swiss National Bank Lowers Interest Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, marking its second consecutive reduction following a surprise 50-basis-point cut in December 2024. The move, which aligns with market expectations, comes as inflation remains low and economic uncertainty persists.
The SNB cited external geopolitical risks as potential threats to the Swiss economy and exports, emphasizing the need for appropriate monetary conditions. Swiss inflation fell from 0.7% in November 2024 to 0.3% in February 2025, primarily due to declining electricity prices, though higher domestic service costs partially offset the drop. The central bank projects inflation to average 0.4% this year and approximately 0.8% in both 2026 and 2027, assuming the policy rate remains at 0.25%.
“With today’s rate adjustment, the SNB is ensuring that monetary conditions remain appropriate, given the low inflationary pressure and heightened downside risks,” the bank stated. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy as necessary to maintain price stability over the medium term.”
Swiss Markets React Positively
Following the rate cut, Swiss stocks showed gains on Thursday morning. Healthcare giant Roche rose 0.2% on the SIX Swiss Exchange, while Nestlé and Novartis advanced 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. Investors responded positively to the SNB’s decision, viewing it as a measure to support economic stability and consumer spending.
Growth Outlook Revised Downward
Despite the rate cut, Switzerland’s economic growth is expected to slow in 2025. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) recently downgraded its growth forecast, projecting GDP—adjusted for sporting events—to expand by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, slightly below its previous estimates of 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.
“This would mean the Swiss economy would continue to grow below its historical average for another two years,” SECO noted. The country’s historical average growth rate has been 1.8%.
SECO’s revised outlook assumes no significant escalation in global trade tensions. However, it acknowledged that uncertainty surrounding international trade policies remains high. A worsening global economic climate could further impact Swiss growth and exports. Conversely, a more positive economic environment, driven by Germany’s newly approved fiscal package, could provide a boost.
Experts Weigh In on Swiss Economy
Global consultancy firm Roland Berger also forecasts a sport-event adjusted growth rate of 1.4% for 2025. The firm expects consumer spending to rise and investment to rebound, supported by easing inflation and lower interest rates. However, it warned that geopolitical uncertainty and increasing protectionism could strengthen the Swiss franc, potentially dampening export growth.
Despite the challenges, Swiss economic growth is expected to outpace the eurozone average, particularly as major economies such as Germany and France continue to struggle. The SNB’s latest policy adjustment aims to balance domestic economic stability with external risks, ensuring that inflation remains within target levels while supporting long-term growth.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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