Business
China Reports 5% Economic Growth Amid Record Trade Surplus and Domestic Challenges
China said its economy grew by 5% in 2025, meeting the government’s official target despite a slowdown to 4.5% in the final quarter of the year, driven in part by a record trade surplus.
The world’s second-largest economy faced a year of weak domestic spending, a prolonged property market downturn, and ongoing uncertainty from US tariff policies. Analysts describe the figures as reflecting a “two-speed economy,” with manufacturing and exports supporting growth while consumer spending remains cautious and the housing sector continues to weigh on overall activity.
Some economists question the official numbers. Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, said the figures “overstate the pace of economic expansion” by at least 1.5 percentage points, citing weak investment and subdued household consumption.
Data released on Monday also highlighted China’s deepening demographic challenges. The number of births fell to 7.9 million in 2025, the lowest since records began in 1949. The country’s population declined for the fourth consecutive year, dropping 3.4 million to 1.4 billion. Experts warn that falling birth rates could reduce demand for housing and consumer goods, adding pressure to an already struggling property market.
The property sector remains a key concern. House prices continued to fall in December, dropping 2.7% year-on-year, marking the sharpest decline in five months. Property investment fell 17.2% for the year. The prolonged slump affects construction activity, household wealth, and local government finances, leaving millions of homeowners with unfinished or devalued properties.
Retail sales rose only 0.9% in December, the slowest pace in three years, while factory output increased 5.2%, slightly up from November’s 4.8%. Analysts say export growth and manufacturing output are currently propping up the economy, while domestic consumption remains weak.
China recorded a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025, driven by strong exports outside the United States. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, warned that “China is effectively pushing growth through exports at a loss,” a strategy that may not be sustainable as it can undermine profits and long-term expansion.
Speaking on Monday, Kang Yi, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, acknowledged the economy “faces problems and challenges, including strong supply and weak demand,” but said China can “maintain stable, sound growth momentum this year.”
Analysts say China faces a delicate balancing act. Policymakers aim to support growth through targeted stimulus and boost consumer confidence while avoiding excessive debt and reducing reliance on exports amid ongoing global trade tensions, including uncertainty over US tariff policies.
While China officially met its growth target, the underlying economic picture suggests caution. Weak domestic demand, a fragile property market, and demographic shifts indicate that sustaining long-term growth will require careful management of both fiscal and monetary policy.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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