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Diageo Faces Uncertainty as U.S. Tariff Threat Looms Over North American Sales

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UK-based drinks giant Diageo plc has warned that escalating trade tensions in North America could significantly impact its business, with potential losses of up to $200 million (€193.7 million) in the second half of 2025 if threatened U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect.

Diageo, which owns more than 200 brands including Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Baileys, and Captain Morgan, exports whiskey from Canada and tequila from Mexico to the U.S., its largest market. With North America generating the highest net sales volume for Diageo, any new tariffs could have far-reaching financial consequences.

On Tuesday, the company reported its financial year 2025 interim results, revealing lackluster performance in the last quarter and announcing the removal of its medium-term sales growth target of 5-7%, citing uncertainty over the global trade environment.

U.S. Tariffs Delayed but Risks Remain

U.S. President Donald Trump had planned to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods on Tuesday, but following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the move has been postponed for a month. However, analysts warn that Diageo remains vulnerable if the tariffs are implemented.

Following the announcement, Diageo’s share price fell 1.3% on Tuesday afternoon, reflecting investor concerns about the company’s exposure to trade disputes.

Disappointing Financial Performance

Diageo’s latest earnings report showed a slight decline in net sales, with reported revenue at $10.9 billion (€10.6 billion), down 0.6%, mainly due to foreign exchange challenges. Organic net sales grew just 1% to $101 million (€97.8 million), while operating profit fell 4.9%, also affected by currency fluctuations.

CEO Debra Crew remained optimistic, highlighting that Diageo continues to gain market share in four out of five global regions.

“We outperformed the market in North America with high-quality share growth and positive organic net sales growth, driven by strong execution and momentum in Don Julio and Crown Royal,” Crew said in the earnings statement.

She also praised the success of Guinness, which delivered double-digit growth for the eighth consecutive half-year period, attributing the rise to brand building, innovation, and increasing global demand.

However, sales of premium spirits like Tanqueray, Gordon’s, and Smirnoff have been under pressure, as consumers turn to cheaper alternatives due to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Analysts React to Diageo’s Results

Market analysts had mixed reactions to Diageo’s performance and decision to withdraw its medium-term sales forecast.

Chris Beckett, head of research at Quilter Cheviot, described the results as “satisfactory”, noting that organic sales rose slightly while profits dipped marginally, indicating a stabilization in performance. However, he warned that the removal of sales guidance may be negatively received by investors.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said Diageo’s uncertain outlook and external challenges have weighed on investor confidence.

“Diageo has had little good news to toast so far in 2025. First, the threat of cancer warning labels on its drinks emerged, and now the company has withdrawn its medium-term guidance,” Mould said.

He added that if the U.S. tariffs are imposed, Diageo will need to test its pricing power to see if it can pass higher costs onto consumers.

Future Outlook

Diageo’s earnings per share (EPS) fell 9.6%, mainly due to weaker performance from Moët Hennessy. The company is also struggling with lower global demand for premium spirits, as inflationary pressures push consumers toward budget-friendly brands.

Despite the challenges, Diageo reassured investors that it would provide more frequent trading updates and near-term guidance. However, with U.S. tariffs looming and shifting consumer spending habits, the company faces significant headwinds in the months ahead.

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DHL Express to Suspend High-Value Consumer Shipments to U.S. Amid Regulatory Changes

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DHL Express, the international courier division of Germany’s Deutsche Post, announced it will temporarily suspend global business-to-consumer (B2C) shipments valued over $800 to individuals in the United States starting April 21. The move comes in response to new U.S. customs regulations that have extended clearance times for incoming goods.

According to a notice published on the company’s website, the suspension affects only shipments above the $800 threshold sent to private individuals. Business-to-business (B2B) shipments will continue but may experience delays due to the new processing requirements. Shipments under $800, whether destined for individuals or businesses, remain unaffected.

The change follows an April 5 update to U.S. customs rules, which now require formal entry processing for all imports valued over $800. Previously, this threshold stood at $2,500. DHL cited the revised policy as the reason for the temporary suspension, as the additional paperwork and procedural requirements have significantly slowed customs clearance.

“This is a temporary measure,” the company stated, without specifying when services might resume.

While the announcement was undated, online metadata indicates it was compiled on Saturday. The update marks a significant shift for international logistics companies that rely on streamlined processes to handle high-volume e-commerce shipments.

DHL’s decision comes amid rising trade tensions and shifting import policies in the United States, particularly concerning packages from China and Hong Kong. Last week, Hongkong Post suspended sea mail services to the U.S., accusing Washington of “bullying” after the United States revoked duty-free trade provisions for packages from the region.

In response to earlier inquiries from Reuters, DHL emphasized its commitment to compliance, saying it would continue processing shipments from Hong Kong “in accordance with the applicable customs rules and regulations.” The company also said it is working with customers to help them adapt to the upcoming changes, particularly those set to take effect on May 2.

Industry analysts say the new U.S. customs policy could have a wide-reaching impact on cross-border e-commerce, as formal entry requirements typically involve additional documentation, processing fees, and longer delivery times. Retailers and logistics firms alike are now reassessing their operations to minimize disruption for customers.

DHL has not provided a specific date for when high-value B2C shipments to the U.S. will resume but indicated that the pause is a precautionary response to the evolving regulatory environment.

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Trump Administration Imposes New Fees on Chinese Ships, Escalating Trade Tensions

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The Trump administration on Thursday announced new fees targeting Chinese-built and Chinese-owned vessels docking at U.S. ports, escalating the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing. The move is aimed at countering China’s growing dominance in the global shipbuilding industry and protecting U.S. maritime interests.

The announcement, made by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), follows a year-long investigation launched under the Biden administration into China’s shipbuilding practices. USTR Ambassador Greer said the decision is designed to “begin to reverse Chinese dominance, address threats to the U.S. supply chain, and send a demand signal for U.S.-built ships.”

The new policy will introduce fees based on net tonnage per voyage for Chinese-built and owned vessels entering U.S. ports. This first phase is set to take effect in 180 days. A second phase, targeting foreign-owned liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels built in China, will be implemented within three years.

The fees could reach as high as $1 million for each Chinese-built ship and $1.5 million for foreign-owned carriers with Chinese-built vessels in their fleets, according to findings from the USTR investigation. The move marks a significant shift in maritime trade policy, as the U.S. seeks to reduce its dependency on Chinese-made ships.

The USTR probe, launched in April 2024 under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, was prompted by a petition from five national labor unions raising concerns over China’s increasing control over global shipping. The USTR concluded that China’s practices unfairly displaced foreign competitors and reduced global competition in maritime logistics.

China currently dominates the global shipbuilding market, with Chinese-built vessels accounting for 81% of the total market share in 2024. In the energy sector, China controls 48% of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessel market and 38% of the LNG sector, according to Veson Nautical.

In response to last year’s proposal, China’s Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. investigation as “a mistake on top of a mistake.” However, no official statement has been issued following the latest U.S. policy announcement.

Despite the new maritime fees, President Trump appeared to signal a pause in further tariff hikes. Speaking to reporters, he said, “At a certain point, I don’t want [tariffs] to go higher because… you make it where people don’t buy.” Trump indicated he may lower existing tariffs to avoid further disruption in trade flows.

Currently, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs of 145% on all Chinese imports, while China has retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. In response, Beijing has hinted at shifting its countermeasures to the U.S. services sector, including legal consultancy, tourism, and education.

As tensions continue to rise, the shipping fee move represents a broader effort by Washington to reshape global trade and strengthen domestic manufacturing — though it risks inflaming economic ties with China even further.

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Global Luxury Sector Faces New Blow as US-China Trade War Escalates

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The global luxury industry, already grappling with declining demand and changing consumer habits, faces a new hurdle as the trade war between the United States and China intensifies. Analysts warn that the sector’s fragile recovery may be further threatened by President Donald Trump’s recent decision to hike tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 245%.

According to a memorandum seen by Euronews, the luxury market is forecasted to grow modestly at 1% to 3% annually between 2024 and 2027. This is a sharp slowdown compared to the 5% yearly growth seen between 2019 and 2023, and 9% between 2021 and 2023, as highlighted in a report by McKinsey.

China and the US are two of the largest luxury markets globally. In 2023, China accounted for 22%–24% of global luxury consumption, while US consumers contributed around 21% of total revenue in 2024, according to Bain & Company and Bank of America. Popular products in both markets include handbags, cosmetics, footwear, and leather goods, with brands such as Chanel, Dior, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Prada dominating sales.

However, economic slowdowns in both countries, combined with rising inflation and interest rates, have already caused luxury shoppers to scale back. The cost of living crisis in several regions has shifted consumer preferences toward more durable and budget-conscious purchases. Furthermore, luxury brands that raised prices post-pandemic without matching innovation are losing their exclusivity appeal.

The latest round of US tariffs, coupled with retaliatory Chinese tariffs currently at 125%, have added fresh uncertainty to the sector. Global stock markets have responded negatively, wiping billions in market capitalization from luxury giants. Shares of Lululemon Athletica dropped 20.7% on Nasdaq, Prada Group fell 23.4% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Kering and LVMH declined 26.3% and 19.9% respectively on Euronext Paris.

LVMH, often seen as a bellwether for the luxury industry, reported a 2% dip in Q1 2025 revenue to €20.3 billion. Fashion and leather goods revenue dropped 4%, perfumes and cosmetics remained flat, and wines and spirits fell 8%. Only watches and jewelry showed growth with a modest 1% increase.

Beyond China, US tariffs on EU goods—although reduced to 10% temporarily—also pose risks. The US imports various luxury products from Europe, including wine, chocolate, high-end apparel, and cars. These tariffs could increase prices for American consumers, potentially leading to reduced spending.

Additionally, the fragmented and globalized supply chains of luxury brands may incur hidden costs due to tariffs, further squeezing margins and complicating logistics.

In a surprising twist, the rising cost of luxury imports has led some Chinese manufacturers to promote knock-off products directly to US consumers via platforms like TikTok. Claiming to be original equipment manufacturers, they offer imitations of products like Birkin bags and Lululemon leggings at steep discounts. While their claims are largely unverified, Chinese wholesale platform DHgate has surged to the number two spot on the US Apple App Store, signaling growing consumer interest in alternatives amid rising prices.

As trade tensions deepen, the luxury sector is bracing for further disruptions in an already turbulent market landscape.

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