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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations

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A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.

The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.

Ceasefire Implementation and Violations

Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.

The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.

Challenges in Withdrawal

Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.

The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.

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Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks

Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.

Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.

As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.

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EU Must End ‘Naivety’ on Trade and Confront China’s Industrial Strategy, Says French Minister

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France’s Minister for Foreign Trade, Nicolas Forissier, has called on the European Union to abandon what he described as “naivety” in its approach to global trade, urging a tougher stance on countries accused of distorting markets through industrial policy and trade practices.

Speaking in an interview with Euronews’ 12 Minutes With programme, Forissier said Europe must respond more firmly to what he described as the weaponisation of trade dependencies, warning that China in particular could damage its own long-term interests by undermining European industry.

“The Chinese have to understand that they won’t win anything if they destroy the European industry and then the European market, which is an essential market for them,” he said. “We must no longer be naive.”

His comments come as the European Commission prepares to hold an “orientation debate” next week on how to respond to a surge of low-cost Chinese imports. The discussion is expected to shape possible new trade defence measures, with further talks likely when EU leaders meet in Brussels in mid-June.

Forissier said the shift in thinking was not limited to China alone but applied to any country using commercial leverage to gain strategic advantage. “It is not only China,” he said. “It is all the countries that weaponise trade.”

Among the proposals under consideration is a requirement for EU companies to diversify supply chains, sourcing components from at least three different suppliers in order to reduce dependency on any single foreign market. Asked whether he supported such a measure, Forissier replied: “Yes, we have to.”

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Other options include targeted tariffs on sensitive industries such as chemicals, alongside stronger use of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tools to counter imports priced below domestic market levels. These measures are designed to address concerns over overcapacity in China’s industrial sector and its impact on European manufacturers.

The debate is taking place against a backdrop of widening trade imbalances. EU goods imports from China exceeded exports by €359.3 billion in 2025, marking an increase of nearly 20% compared with the previous year.

China has already warned it could retaliate if the bloc imposes new restrictions, raising concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions between two of the world’s largest economies.

France has repeatedly pushed for a more assertive European trade policy, arguing that state subsidies, export controls on raw materials and industrial overproduction in major economies are distorting global markets.

Forissier stressed that Europe must maintain open dialogue with Beijing while defending its own industrial base. “We try to respect the Chinese,” he said. “The Chinese have to respect us, and this is the message European institutions have to send.”

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US Says Iran Talks ‘Borderline’ as Pakistan Pushes Diplomacy Amid War Tensions

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US President Donald Trump has said ongoing negotiations over the conflict involving Iran are teetering on the “borderline” between reaching a diplomatic agreement and a return to renewed military strikes, as tensions continue to rise across the region.

The remarks came as Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for fresh talks aimed at de-escalating the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. His visit follows a series of high-level diplomatic engagements involving Pakistani officials and Iranian leadership in recent days.

Munir was received in Tehran by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, alongside Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who has also travelled to the Iranian capital multiple times this week for meetings with senior officials.

Despite the renewed diplomatic activity, Iran has downplayed expectations of a breakthrough. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the visit did not signal any decisive shift in negotiations, describing the differences between the parties as “deep and extensive,” according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.

Speaking at a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been limited progress in the discussions but cautioned against optimism.

“There’s a little bit of movement and that’s good,” Rubio said, adding that he did not want to exaggerate developments. He also warned that Washington retains “other options” if diplomacy fails, echoing Trump’s earlier comments that military action remains on the table if Iran does not agree to terms.

Trump has previously stated that he paused consideration of a strike due to what he described as “serious negotiations” taking place, but has repeatedly warned that the fragile ceasefire reached in mid-April could collapse.

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained committed to talks despite what he called repeated breaches of diplomacy by Washington. He said Iran was participating “with a responsible approach and with all seriousness” in an effort to secure what he described as a fair outcome, according to Iranian state media.

A key point of contention remains the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route through which a significant share of global oil and gas supplies pass. Iranian actions in the waterway and US responses have heightened fears of wider economic disruption.

Iran has effectively restricted access through the strait, while US Central Command has reportedly blocked Iranian ports and redirected commercial vessels since mid-April. The European Union has since expanded its sanctions framework targeting those involved, calling the blockade contrary to international law.

Rubio said allied nations were also discussing contingency plans in case negotiations fail, warning that the situation may require a “plan B” if diplomatic efforts collapse.

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US Green Card Rule Change Forces Most Applicants to Apply From Abroad

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A sweeping policy change in the United States has upended a long-standing immigration process, requiring most foreign nationals seeking green cards to leave the country and complete their applications from abroad.

Under the new directive issued Friday by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), individuals in the United States on temporary visas — including work, student and tourist permits — will generally no longer be able to adjust their status to permanent residency while remaining in the country. Instead, they must return to their home countries and apply through US consulates, except in limited “extraordinary circumstances.”

USCIS spokesperson Zach Kahler said the policy was intended to realign the immigration system with its original framework.

“From now on, an alien who is in the U.S. temporarily and wants a Green Card must return to their home country to apply, except in extraordinary circumstances,” Kahler said. He added that the change would reduce incentives for people to remain in the US after visa denials.

The decision marks a significant departure from decades of practice, under which many migrants have been allowed to apply for permanent residency from within the United States. That pathway has been commonly used by spouses of US citizens, workers, students, and individuals with family ties in the country.

The process of obtaining a green card often takes months or even years, raising concerns that applicants may now be forced to leave jobs, homes and families while waiting for approval abroad.

Immigration attorneys and advocacy groups said they were still assessing the scope of the policy and how it would be enforced. Many also warned that practical barriers could make compliance difficult, particularly for applicants from countries where travel is restricted or where US consular services are limited or unavailable.

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Shev Dalal-Dheini of the American Immigration Lawyers Association said the move appeared to disrupt established procedures. “USCIS is trying to upend decades of processing of adjustment of status,” she said, noting widespread uncertainty over who would be affected.

Jessie De Haven of the California Immigration Project said the policy could discourage eligible applicants from proceeding altogether. “It’s really hard to tell how this is going to be applied,” she said. “I do think it might have a chilling effect on people applying.”

The announcement forms part of a broader immigration crackdown under the Trump administration, which has sought to tighten legal pathways while increasing enforcement measures against irregular migration.

Officials have framed the change as an effort to close loopholes and strengthen oversight of the immigration system. Critics, however, argue it could lead to prolonged separations for families and create new obstacles for lawful immigrants seeking permanent residency in the United States.

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