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Majority of Europeans Support Increased Defence Spending, but Doubt Autonomy from U.S., Survey Finds
A majority of Europeans support boosting national defence budgets, but remain sceptical about achieving independence from the United States on security matters within the next five years, according to a new survey released ahead of a key NATO summit.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) surveyed more than 16,000 people across 12 European countries, finding broad support for increased defence spending amid escalating global tensions and concerns about waning U.S. commitment to European security.
Clear majorities in countries such as Poland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Estonia, and Portugal backed raising defence budgets. In several others — including France, Germany, Spain, and Romania — pluralities also favoured increased military spending. Italy was the only country where a majority (57%) opposed such increases.
However, when it comes to reducing reliance on U.S. military support, Europeans are far more cautious. Only in Denmark and Portugal did a majority of respondents express confidence that the EU could achieve strategic autonomy before the end of the decade. Most respondents in Poland, Estonia, and Spain believed that such independence would be either “very difficult” or “practically impossible” to achieve. Italian and Hungarian respondents were particularly doubtful, with over half in each country expressing strong scepticism.
Despite uncertainty over European self-reliance, the survey revealed a strong consensus on continued support for Ukraine. Majorities or pluralities in 11 out of the 12 countries surveyed rejected the idea of withdrawing military support, lifting sanctions against Russia, or pressuring Ukraine to surrender occupied territory — even if the U.S. shifts its stance.
The results come at a politically sensitive moment, as NATO leaders prepare to meet in The Hague this week. A major point of discussion will be a proposal to increase the alliance’s defence spending target. While former U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed for a dramatic rise to 5% of GDP, NATO members are currently considering a more modest increase to 3.5%, with an additional 1.5% dedicated to defence-related infrastructure, cybersecurity, and broader security initiatives.
Not all NATO members are aligned. Spain, in particular, has expressed reservations, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warning that a 5% spending target would be “unreasonable” and “counterproductive,” potentially diverting resources from broader EU defence integration efforts.
Meanwhile, the EU is advancing its own plans to strengthen defence capabilities. A new initiative aims to mobilise €800 billion in defence investments over four years, partly by easing fiscal rules for member states and offering low-interest loans through a scheme known as SAFE.
Defence and strategic autonomy are also expected to feature prominently at the upcoming EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday.
Britain and Norway have launched new joint naval patrols aimed at protecting undersea cables from Russia, with a combined fleet of at least 13 warships safeguarding critical infrastructure in the North Atlantic, officials said. The announcement follows discussions in December between UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on defense cooperation.
British Defence Secretary John Healey said on Thursday that the operation was designed to deter Russian submarines suspected of “malign activity” near undersea infrastructure north of the UK. A frigate, aircraft, and hundreds of personnel monitored a Russian attack submarine and two spy vessels during an operation lasting more than a month. Healey said the Russian ships eventually left the area.
His message to Moscow was clear: “We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.” Healey emphasized that while global attention is focused on conflicts in the Middle East, Russia remains the main threat to the UK and its allies.
British officials have highlighted the overlap between Russia’s support for Iran and its ongoing war in Ukraine. Tehran has provided Moscow with Shahed drones, which are now also manufactured in Russia under the designation Geran. Healey said, “Putin would want us to be distracted by the Middle East. We will not take our eyes off Putin.”
The UK has also prepared to seize ships suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a flotilla of old oil tankers of unclear ownership designed to bypass international sanctions imposed over Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Previously, the UK only assisted France and the US in monitoring such vessels. Healey said, “We are ready to take action” against these ships.
Norwegian Defence Minister Tore O. Sandvik, who signed the joint naval agreement with Healey, said the patrols allow both countries to “defend themselves together.” The deployment builds on a £10 billion (€11 billion) deal for Norway to purchase at least five British-made frigates, which, together with eight British ships, will operate along NATO’s northern flank.
Russian naval activity near UK waters has reportedly risen by 30 percent over the past two years. NATO officials have also warned that attacks on undersea cables are among the “most active threats” to Western infrastructure. Acting Assistant Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber, James Appathurai, said recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere reflect Russia’s long-term undersea program, which includes research ships, submarines, unmanned vehicles, divers, and explosives targeting communications and energy pipelines.
The new UK-Norway patrols signal a heightened focus on securing vital maritime infrastructure amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing Russian naval operations in European waters.
Reports of new attacks across the الخليج on Wednesday have shaken early optimism following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, raising doubts about how quickly the agreement can take hold.
The ceasefire, announced late الثلاثاء, had been welcomed across the region as tensions between واشنطن and طهران escalated. However, neither side specified when the truce would come into effect, and events on Wednesday suggested hostilities had not fully subsided.
In the United Arab Emirates, authorities reported a fresh Iranian attack targeting the Habshan gas complex. The strike disrupted operations and prompted officials to suspend production at the facility after falling debris from intercepted projectiles caused multiple fires. According to the Abu Dhabi media office, two Emirati nationals and one Indian worker suffered minor injuries.
Journalists in Dubai reported receiving air raid alerts early in the morning and observed continued air defence activity, including fighter jets operating overhead. The developments marked a sharp end to the brief sense of relief that had followed the ceasefire announcement.
In Qatar, residents in Doha also received early morning alerts after a night of heightened tension. Reports indicated a prolonged Iranian raid on Tuesday evening, with at least eight interception blasts heard across the city. The incident disrupted air traffic, with inbound flights diverted for about an hour before normal operations resumed.
Bahrain experienced similar unrest. Sirens sounded again on Wednesday morning, warning residents to seek shelter as new explosions were heard. The renewed activity followed overnight strikes that damaged homes in the Sitra area and left two people injured by falling debris after an Iranian drone was intercepted.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, residents reported hearing air defence systems in operation late Wednesday morning. Initial reports suggested the activity may have been part of a drill, though details remained limited.
The renewed attacks come despite an agreement announced by US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials for a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies. Trump had earlier described a 10-point proposal from Iran as a possible basis for negotiations, though he later questioned its credibility.
Israel signalled support for the temporary pause in strikes against Iran but clarified that it would continue its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, highlighting ongoing tensions beyond the immediate US-Iran conflict.
The situation underscores the fragile nature of the ceasefire, with continued military activity casting uncertainty over its implementation. As diplomatic efforts continue, the coming days are likely to determine whether the agreement can hold or whether the region will see further escalation.
Sweden’s security service, Sapo, has accused Iran of increasing its targeting of dissidents since the start of the Iran war, alleging that it has recruited organised crime networks to carry out acts of violence داخل the country. The warning comes as five teenagers are due to appear in court on Wednesday over the alleged attempted murder of an Iranian dissident researcher in southern Sweden.
Prosecutors say the group targeted Arvin Khoshnood, a researcher and commentator on Iranian affairs, at his home in the city of Malmö on September 2 last year. According to the charge sheet, one of the suspects, aged 16 at the time, rang the doorbell armed with a knife and asked Khoshnood’s wife if he was at home. Khoshnood, who was present, remained out of sight and contacted police immediately.
Authorities allege the teenager had been recruited through encrypted messaging apps and promised payment to carry out the attack. Prosecutors say three of the accused, along with a fourth individual believed to be the mastermind, provided instructions, supplied the weapon, and negotiated the terms before the attempt was made. Three of the teenagers face charges of attempted murder, while the others are accused of complicity.
“These are acts that fall under so-called crime as a service, where young perpetrators in Sweden take on assignments from individuals connected to organised crime,” prosecutor Per-Erik Rinsell said in a statement.
Khoshnood has suggested the plot may be linked to the Foxtrot network, one of Sweden’s most prominent criminal gangs. Its leader, Rawa Majid, has been reported to have connections to Iran, although such claims remain contested. The group has been associated with a series of shootings, bombings, and other violent incidents in recent years, often recruiting young people through online platforms.
The case has drawn attention to what Swedish authorities describe as a growing security threat. Sapo has identified Iran as one of the main risks to national security, accusing it of using criminal gangs to target Israeli interests and Iranian opposition figures within Sweden. Tehran has denied these allegations.
Khoshnood, who frequently appears in Swedish media as an expert on Iran, has openly expressed support for exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah. Investigators believe his public stance may have made him a target.
Several of the accused teenagers are also facing charges related to a separate attempted murder in Uddevalla, which occurred a week after the incident in Malmö. Authorities have not confirmed whether that case involved another Iranian dissident.
The trial is expected to shed light on the alleged links between foreign actors and domestic criminal networks, as Sweden grapples with rising concerns over organised crime and national security.
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