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Majority of Europeans Support Increased Defence Spending, but Doubt Autonomy from U.S., Survey Finds
A majority of Europeans support boosting national defence budgets, but remain sceptical about achieving independence from the United States on security matters within the next five years, according to a new survey released ahead of a key NATO summit.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) surveyed more than 16,000 people across 12 European countries, finding broad support for increased defence spending amid escalating global tensions and concerns about waning U.S. commitment to European security.
Clear majorities in countries such as Poland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Estonia, and Portugal backed raising defence budgets. In several others — including France, Germany, Spain, and Romania — pluralities also favoured increased military spending. Italy was the only country where a majority (57%) opposed such increases.
However, when it comes to reducing reliance on U.S. military support, Europeans are far more cautious. Only in Denmark and Portugal did a majority of respondents express confidence that the EU could achieve strategic autonomy before the end of the decade. Most respondents in Poland, Estonia, and Spain believed that such independence would be either “very difficult” or “practically impossible” to achieve. Italian and Hungarian respondents were particularly doubtful, with over half in each country expressing strong scepticism.
Despite uncertainty over European self-reliance, the survey revealed a strong consensus on continued support for Ukraine. Majorities or pluralities in 11 out of the 12 countries surveyed rejected the idea of withdrawing military support, lifting sanctions against Russia, or pressuring Ukraine to surrender occupied territory — even if the U.S. shifts its stance.
The results come at a politically sensitive moment, as NATO leaders prepare to meet in The Hague this week. A major point of discussion will be a proposal to increase the alliance’s defence spending target. While former U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed for a dramatic rise to 5% of GDP, NATO members are currently considering a more modest increase to 3.5%, with an additional 1.5% dedicated to defence-related infrastructure, cybersecurity, and broader security initiatives.
Not all NATO members are aligned. Spain, in particular, has expressed reservations, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warning that a 5% spending target would be “unreasonable” and “counterproductive,” potentially diverting resources from broader EU defence integration efforts.
Meanwhile, the EU is advancing its own plans to strengthen defence capabilities. A new initiative aims to mobilise €800 billion in defence investments over four years, partly by easing fiscal rules for member states and offering low-interest loans through a scheme known as SAFE.
Defence and strategic autonomy are also expected to feature prominently at the upcoming EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday.
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Britain and Norway Step Up Naval Patrols to Protect Undersea Infrastructure from Russia
Britain and Norway have launched new joint naval patrols aimed at protecting undersea cables from Russia, with a combined fleet of at least 13 warships safeguarding critical infrastructure in the North Atlantic, officials said. The announcement follows discussions in December between UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on defense cooperation.
British Defence Secretary John Healey said on Thursday that the operation was designed to deter Russian submarines suspected of “malign activity” near undersea infrastructure north of the UK. A frigate, aircraft, and hundreds of personnel monitored a Russian attack submarine and two spy vessels during an operation lasting more than a month. Healey said the Russian ships eventually left the area.
His message to Moscow was clear: “We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.” Healey emphasized that while global attention is focused on conflicts in the Middle East, Russia remains the main threat to the UK and its allies.
British officials have highlighted the overlap between Russia’s support for Iran and its ongoing war in Ukraine. Tehran has provided Moscow with Shahed drones, which are now also manufactured in Russia under the designation Geran. Healey said, “Putin would want us to be distracted by the Middle East. We will not take our eyes off Putin.”
The UK has also prepared to seize ships suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a flotilla of old oil tankers of unclear ownership designed to bypass international sanctions imposed over Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Previously, the UK only assisted France and the US in monitoring such vessels. Healey said, “We are ready to take action” against these ships.
Norwegian Defence Minister Tore O. Sandvik, who signed the joint naval agreement with Healey, said the patrols allow both countries to “defend themselves together.” The deployment builds on a £10 billion (€11 billion) deal for Norway to purchase at least five British-made frigates, which, together with eight British ships, will operate along NATO’s northern flank.
Russian naval activity near UK waters has reportedly risen by 30 percent over the past two years. NATO officials have also warned that attacks on undersea cables are among the “most active threats” to Western infrastructure. Acting Assistant Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber, James Appathurai, said recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere reflect Russia’s long-term undersea program, which includes research ships, submarines, unmanned vehicles, divers, and explosives targeting communications and energy pipelines.
The new UK-Norway patrols signal a heightened focus on securing vital maritime infrastructure amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing Russian naval operations in European waters.
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