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Euro’s Safe-Haven Status Grows, But Long-Term Stability Needs Structural Reform: S&P Analyst
The euro’s growing appeal as a global safe-haven currency signals a promising shift for Europe’s economic role on the world stage. However, according to Sylvain Broyer, Chief EMEA Economist at S&P Global Ratings, the momentum is far from guaranteed without substantial economic reforms and a stronger focus on domestic demand.
In a commentary published exclusively for Euroviews, Broyer emphasized that while recent market behavior reflects increased confidence in the euro during times of financial uncertainty, sustaining that trust requires more than fiscal stimulus packages. “Being viewed as a safe haven is not always a positive—it brings responsibility,” he noted, urging Europe to reconfigure its growth model to become more self-reliant.
Currently, the euro comprises only 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, compared to 58% for the US dollar. Though the euro is strengthening and trading closer to its fair value of around $1.15, Broyer warns that maintaining or improving this position hinges on significant policy shifts, particularly a move toward boosting domestic consumption over export reliance.
Europe’s deep-rooted dependency on global trade, especially with a trade model shaped by decades of adherence to the Washington Consensus, leaves it vulnerable. Should the US further restrict imports, Europe could face intense competition from Chinese products redirected toward European markets. China’s edge in production efficiency, regulatory flexibility, and technological development could pose a serious challenge.
To safeguard against this, Broyer advocates for expanding Europe’s domestic economy while preserving its commitment to free trade. He points to Germany’s stimulus efforts and rising EU-wide defence spending as initial steps in the right direction. Together, these initiatives could lift the eurozone’s GDP by up to half a percentage point annually by 2028—an impactful change for a region where growth typically hovers around 1.2%.
Still, the economist warns that Europe’s limited fiscal capacity, constrained by budgetary rules and a relatively small EU budget, will require more than short-term spending to achieve long-term resilience. “Reforms must begin with dismantling internal trade barriers,” Broyer said, citing IMF research indicating that aligning Europe’s internal trade efficiency with US interstate levels could boost per capita GDP by 7%.
Further gains could come from fully realizing the EU’s proposed Savings and Investment Union (SIU). OECD data suggests that even modest increases in market capitalisation could raise per capita GDP by 2.5%, improving investment in innovation and reinforcing the continent’s competitive edge.
Ultimately, Broyer concluded, the euro’s emergence as a reliable safe haven depends not only on short-term fiscal tools but also on deep, structural reforms. These would enhance the EU’s ability to withstand global shocks and reduce dependence on the US dollar—offering a path to a more autonomous and robust economic future.
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WHO Warns Congo Ebola Outbreak Could Surpass West Africa’s Deadliest Epidemic
The World Health Organization has warned that an Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo is spreading so rapidly that it could surpass the devastating West African epidemic of 2014 to 2016, which killed more than 11,000 people.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Wednesday that the current outbreak had already killed more than 2,000 people among over 4,300 reported cases. He warned that the outbreak is advancing faster than health authorities can contain it.
“At its current pace, it’s on track to eclipse the West African Ebola outbreak of 2014 to 2016,” Tedros told reporters.
The West African epidemic, which affected countries including Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, recorded at least 28,000 cases and took about eight months to reach 1,000 deaths. The speed of the current outbreak has raised serious concerns among health officials and international agencies.
The Congo outbreak was officially declared on May 15, but genetic sequencing later showed that the virus had been circulating since February. This earlier start has complicated efforts to trace infections and establish effective control measures.
The outbreak is concentrated in eastern Congo, where conflict, poor infrastructure and limited healthcare capacity have made the response more difficult. The affected region lies close to the borders with South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda.
Many new cases and deaths are being recorded in communities that are difficult for health workers to reach. Medical facilities in some areas lack equipment and resources, while some health workers have reportedly stopped working because of unpaid wages.
Misinformation has also created obstacles. Health officials say some communities remain suspicious of outsiders and are reluctant to visit clinics, making it harder to identify cases and prevent further transmission.
“The outbreak had a big head start, still way ahead of us, and we’re playing catch-up,” Tedros said.
Dr Abdirahman Mahamud, WHO director for health emergency alert and response operations, said the agency expects the outbreak to reach its peak within six months under a moderate scenario. He warned that the outbreak could continue for nine to 12 months under a more severe scenario.
The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, a rare Ebola strain for which no approved vaccine or treatment is currently available. Clinical trials of two potential treatments began last month in Ituri, the province reporting the highest number of cases.
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