Ethiopia’s long-awaited Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was officially inaugurated in September, marking what Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described as “a generational victory.” But while the ceremony was hailed as a triumph in Addis Ababa, leaders in Egypt and Sudan called it an “existential threat,” deepening long-standing tensions over control of the Nile’s waters.

Speaking at the inauguration on 9 September, Abiy praised the dam as a symbol of national pride and self-reliance. “This lake has brought with it a wealth greater than Ethiopia’s GDP. The era of begging has ended,” he declared to gathered officials and regional leaders. Behind him, torrents of water cascaded from the 74-billion-cubic-metre reservoir — a body of water roughly the size of Greater London.

The dam, located on the Blue Nile in western Ethiopia, is expected to generate between 5,000 and 6,000 megawatts of electricity, potentially transforming the country into a regional energy hub. Abiy described it as a “shared opportunity” for neighbouring nations. Yet no representatives from Egypt or Sudan attended the ceremony, underlining their deep opposition to the project.

Just weeks later, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned that his country “will not stand idly by” in response to what he called Ethiopia’s “irresponsible” actions. Cairo and Khartoum have long feared that the dam will restrict the flow of water downstream, threatening their agriculture and livelihoods.

The Nile dispute predates the GERD by decades. Egypt’s water rights are anchored in colonial-era agreements — including treaties from 1902, 1929, and 1959 — that heavily favoured Cairo, granting it roughly two-thirds of the Nile’s flow. Ethiopia, which contributes about 85% of the river’s water through the Blue Nile, argues those accords were unfairly imposed and outdated.

“The construction of the GERD was the first time these old treaties were truly challenged,” said Ahmed Morsey, an Egyptian analyst with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Ethiopian scholar Tsedenya Girmay added that a 2015 declaration of principles was meant to ease tensions, ensuring the dam would operate without harming downstream nations. “But domestic political crises derailed those efforts,” she said.

In Ethiopia, the dam has become a symbol of unity in a nation often divided by internal strife. “The GERD is the one thing that unites Ethiopians,” Tsedenya noted, pointing out that it even features in school curricula. With nearly 60 million Ethiopians lacking electricity, the project is seen as crucial for national development.

Egypt, meanwhile, sees the dam as a direct threat to its survival. Ninety-five percent of its 115 million citizens live along the Nile, which remains the country’s primary water source. Al-Sisi has insisted Egypt will pursue diplomacy, though past U.S.-brokered negotiations have collapsed amid mutual distrust.

Analysts suggest that regional instability has only hardened positions. Sudan’s civil war has drawn its leaders closer to Egypt’s stance, while Ethiopia accuses Cairo of meddling in its internal affairs. At the same time, the European Union has tilted toward Egypt, recently reaffirming its “support for Egypt’s water security” during a summit in Brussels.

According to Corrado Čok of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the EU’s shift stems from its growing reliance on Egypt for regional stability, energy cooperation, and migration control. “Cairo has become an indispensable partner,” he said, noting that this alignment has weakened Europe’s once-neutral role in the Nile dispute.

As the GERD begins operations, its promise of prosperity for Ethiopia contrasts sharply with fears of crisis in Egypt and Sudan — a reminder that the Nile, the river that sustains life across the region, continues to divide as much as it unites.