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AI Could Replace Up to Three Million UK Jobs, But Boost Economy in the Long Run

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Artificial intelligence (AI) could ultimately displace between one and three million jobs across the UK, according to a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. The study suggests that AI-driven changes to the labor market could gradually increase unemployment, with annual job losses expected to peak between 60,000 and 275,000 as AI technology becomes more widely integrated across various industries.

The report, titled Impact of AI on the Labour Market, projects that despite these displacements, AI will ultimately create new demands and opportunities for workers. “Our best guess is that AI’s peak impact on unemployment is likely to be in the low hundreds of thousands,” the report states, noting that while some jobs may be eliminated, these effects will “be capped and ultimately offset” over time as the economy adjusts and new job categories emerge.

The report indicates that AI is particularly likely to affect fields that rely on cognitive tasks, such as administration, sales, customer service, and data-intensive roles in sectors like finance and banking. The gradual adoption of AI is expected to streamline operations, potentially reducing the need for human labor in these areas.

However, AI’s economic impact could be substantial, with the study estimating it could ultimately grow the UK economy by up to 14% by 2050. In the short term, AI adoption is expected to have a “relatively modest” effect, potentially boosting GDP by around 1% within the next five years, with a predicted rise in unemployment by as much as 180,000 by 2030. In the long term, labor productivity and time savings are expected to contribute to broader economic growth, especially as companies find ways to use AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

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According to the study, large-scale AI adoption could allow firms to save roughly a quarter of private-sector workforce time, representing the equivalent productivity of six million workers. London, already a major hub for generative AI, holds 30% of Europe’s AI startups, underscoring the UK’s leadership in this growing sector, as highlighted by a June study from venture capital firms Accel and Dealroom.

The report also suggests that the benefits of AI are likely to reach smaller businesses if larger AI companies can develop scalable, cost-effective solutions that smaller enterprises can affordably implement. In addition, AI has the potential to improve the labor supply by enhancing workforce productivity and reducing time lost to health issues or job mismatches.

For AI’s transition to succeed, the study emphasizes the need for government involvement. The researchers recommend that governments proactively provide workers with training and information about workplace changes driven by AI, along with financial safety nets and retraining programs to maximize employment opportunities. The report also calls for contingency plans to address any disruptions if job losses and AI integration prove more challenging than expected.

While AI may lead to significant job transformations, the report sees it as a powerful tool for growth, with the potential to revolutionize productivity and economic output if carefully managed and widely adopted.

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US to Pay RWE $1.22 Billion to End Offshore Wind Leases

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The United States government will pay German energy company RWE $1.22 billion (€1.06 billion) to relinquish several offshore wind leases, marking another major setback for the country’s renewable energy sector under President Donald Trump.

RWE said on Thursday that it had reached an agreement with the US Department of the Interior to give up leases linked to proposed wind projects off the coasts of New York, California and Louisiana.

The company said it had determined that there was no realistic path to obtaining permits for the projects in the foreseeable future.

The settlement comes as the Trump administration continues its efforts to halt or restrict offshore wind development across the United States. Trump has repeatedly criticised wind turbines, describing them as unattractive and an economic and environmental problem.

The president has also said he does not want new wind turbines built during his time in office.

The administration has increasingly favoured conventional energy sources as it seeks to expand domestic power production and meet rising electricity demand.

RWE said it would redirect some of its planned US investment towards gas projects. The company plans to spend $900 million acquiring a 16% stake in a liquefied natural gas project in Louisiana.

The German group said its US operations had broader plans to invest about €17 billion over the next six years. The investment programme is expected to increase its electricity generation capacity in the country from about 13 gigawatts across 27 states to 22 gigawatts by 2031.

The agreement follows a similar deal involving French energy company TotalEnergies. In March, the company agreed to relinquish offshore wind leases in the Carolina Long Bay and New York Bight areas.

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The Interior Department said it would pay TotalEnergies about $1 billion under that arrangement, while the company planned to redirect investment towards natural gas projects.

US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum welcomed the RWE settlement, saying the agreement would support energy security and reliable electricity supplies.

The changes come as US electricity demand is expected to rise, driven partly by data centres, manufacturing and other energy-intensive industries. The Trump administration has argued that natural gas and other conventional energy sources can provide dependable power as the country expands its electricity infrastructure.

RWE’s decision highlights the growing uncertainty facing offshore wind developers in the US, where projects have encountered regulatory, political and economic obstacles.

For the company, shifting part of its investment towards gas represents a significant change in strategy as it responds to the changing US energy policy environment.

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Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Deal May Be Close as Shipping Risks Persist

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US President Donald Trump has said an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within days, while warning Iran of severe consequences if negotiations fail, as tensions continue to disrupt one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.

Speaking to reporters in California on Tuesday, Trump said negotiators had made significant progress and suggested a breakthrough could come as early as Wednesday.

“We had a very good day,” Trump said, adding that a deal could be reached “tomorrow or the next day.”

Earlier in the day, Trump adopted a tougher tone during an interview with Fox News, saying the strategic waterway would reopen soon or Iran would “get hit very hard.”

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is a critical shipping route for global oil and natural gas exports. Since the conflict began on 28 February, Iran has tightened its control over the passage and has sought to regulate vessel movements and introduce transit fees, powers it had not previously exercised.

The issue has become one of the main obstacles in diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions following an April ceasefire.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also expressed cautious optimism, telling CNBC there was a possibility of reaching an agreement by Wednesday or Thursday.

Despite the positive signals from Washington, Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied that direct negotiations with the United States were taking place.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Washington was participating in discussions involving Oman and Iran aimed at increasing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

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According to reports from Axios, citing US and regional officials, negotiators are working toward a temporary 60-day agreement that would allow ships to pass safely through the waterway. The proposed arrangement could reportedly be announced this week if talks are successful.

Qatar, which has played a mediating role in regional diplomacy, said efforts to reduce tensions remain active but indicated that no direct talks between the United States and Iran are currently scheduled. Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, discussed de-escalation efforts with Trump during a telephone conversation on Tuesday.

While diplomatic efforts continued, security concerns remained high across the region.

Britain’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman on Tuesday, leaving one crew member missing.

Elsewhere, an Indian cargo vessel sank in the Red Sea after coming under attack from unidentified assailants. All crew members were rescued safely.

The ongoing disruptions in Hormuz have increased the importance of alternative shipping routes through the Red Sea. However, those routes also face security challenges following attacks claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement, which has declared a maritime blockade targeting vessels linked to Saudi Arabia.

The instability has forced many shipping companies to reassess routes and security measures, while energy markets continue to monitor developments closely. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically significant waterways, carrying a substantial share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making any disruption a major concern for international trade and energy supplies.

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Netanyahu Rejects US Ceasefire Draft, Insists Hamas Must Disarm Before Israeli Withdrawal

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected key elements of a United States-backed proposal aimed at advancing a ceasefire in Gaza, insisting that Israeli forces will not withdraw from territory they currently control until Hamas has fully disarmed.

Netanyahu’s comments, made on Tuesday, cast fresh uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to revive negotiations and highlighted a rare public disagreement between Israel and the administration of US President Donald Trump.

The proposed agreement, backed by Washington, sought to build on a ceasefire framework reached last October. Under the draft plan, Hamas would begin a process of disarmament while Israel would halt military strikes and start withdrawing from approximately 60% of Gaza currently under Israeli control. The proposal also envisioned the deployment of an international stabilization force and the establishment of an independent Palestinian administration to oversee governance and reconstruction in the territory.

Speaking in a video posted on social media, Netanyahu said Israel had received a draft proposal from the United States but had not accepted it.

“The Trump administration sent us a draft. We did not agree. It is not our draft. We sent our comments. This is our position,” Netanyahu said.

He added that Israel was examining whether Hamas could genuinely be persuaded to surrender its weapons but stressed that Israeli security interests would remain the government’s priority.

“We stand firm on our interests,” Netanyahu said, adding that Israeli forces would continue to take whatever measures they considered necessary to protect the country, its territory and its citizens.

The Israeli leader reiterated his long-standing position that Hamas must first disarm before any substantial Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza can take place.

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The latest disagreement threatens to complicate international efforts to secure a lasting end to the conflict. The ceasefire reached last October halted large-scale military operations and led to the release of the remaining hostages held in Gaza. However, negotiations over implementing other parts of the agreement have since stalled.

The central dispute remains unchanged. Israel insists that Hamas must surrender its weapons and dismantle its military capabilities before any further concessions are made. Hamas, meanwhile, maintains that Israel must first stop its military operations and begin withdrawing its forces from Gaza before discussions on disarmament can proceed.

Both sides continue to accuse each other of violating the terms of the existing truce, making progress toward a broader agreement increasingly difficult.

Netanyahu’s remarks also come at a politically sensitive time as he prepares for a difficult re-election campaign ahead of Israel’s October elections. His government has consistently argued that eliminating Hamas as a military force remains a central objective of the war.

While the Trump administration continues to promote negotiations as a path toward ending the conflict, Netanyahu’s latest comments indicate that significant differences remain over the sequence of disarmament, military withdrawal and post-war governance, leaving the future of the proposed agreement uncertain.

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