Health

New Predictive Health Model Forecasts Risk of Over 1,000 Diseases

Published

8 months ago

September 18, 2025

Scientists have developed a new predictive model that can estimate a person’s risk of developing more than 1,000 medical conditions, including diabetes, cancer, and heart disease, years before symptoms emerge.

The research, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, describes the tool as one of the largest demonstrations to date of how advanced data models could be applied to healthcare. The system was trained on anonymised health records from 400,000 people in the United Kingdom and tested using data from 1.9 million patients in Denmark.

By analysing the sequence of past medical events—such as diagnoses, smoking histories, and the time gaps between them—the model can identify patterns that often precede serious illnesses. Researchers stressed that the results represent probabilities, not certainties, likening the output to a weather forecast.

“This is the beginning of a new way to understand human health and disease progression,” said Moritz Gerstung, head of the oncology modelling group at the German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), which helped lead the project.

The model proved most reliable in predicting conditions with well-documented and consistent progression pathways. These include certain cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and septicaemia, a severe blood infection. Its accuracy was also stronger in the near term, providing more dependable forecasts over a span of several years than over decades.

However, the system struggled with conditions that are less predictable, such as infectious diseases, mental health disorders, and pregnancy-related complications. Researchers said this limitation highlights the complexity of these conditions and the challenges in forecasting them based on past data alone.

Ewan Birney, interim director general of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL), another partner in the project, described the results as “a big step towards more personalised and preventive approaches to healthcare.” He said the model demonstrated how long-term health data could be harnessed to generate meaningful predictions.

The collaborative effort also involved the University of Copenhagen. While the tool is not yet ready for clinical use, scientists believe it could eventually help doctors flag high-risk patients earlier and guide tailored preventive care. Gerstung said the model might “support earlier, more tailored interventions” once further validated.

Independent experts cautioned that the datasets used to build the system were limited in scope. Because they primarily reflect populations in the UK and Denmark, the findings may not be fully representative of other regions or diverse groups. More work will be needed to test the model across varied populations, particularly given differences in age, ethnicity, and healthcare access.

For now, researchers say the model’s value lies in deepening the understanding of how diseases evolve over time and how lifestyle factors interact with medical history to shape long-term health outcomes.

Health

Global Mental Health Cases Near 1.2 Billion as Anxiety and Depression Drive Sharp Worldwide Rise

Published

4 days ago

May 22, 2026

Web Reporter

A major global analysis has found that mental health conditions have surged to an estimated 1.2 billion people worldwide, driven largely by steep increases in anxiety and depression over the past three decades.

The findings, published in The Lancet as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, show that the number of people living with mental disorders has almost doubled since 1990, marking a 95% rise. Researchers say major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders have seen even sharper growth, increasing by 131% and 158% respectively, making them the most prevalent mental health conditions globally.

The report describes mental illnesses as widespread conditions that create long-term disability and significant human suffering. It also highlights broader consequences for economies and public services, including reduced productivity, lower workforce participation and increasing pressure on health and welfare systems.

Researchers estimate that in 2023 alone, around 620 million females and 552 million males were affected by mental health conditions. While the overall burden is rising across both sexes, the study points to notable differences in the types and prevalence of disorders.

Among women, depression and anxiety were the most commonly reported conditions, alongside higher rates of eating disorders such as anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa. The report links this disparity to a mix of biological, social and structural factors, including exposure to domestic violence, sexual abuse, gender inequality and reproductive health-related changes.

In contrast, neurodevelopmental and behavioural disorders, including attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder and autism spectrum conditions, were more frequently diagnosed in men.

Teenagers aged 15 to 19 were identified as the group experiencing the highest mental health burden globally, raising concerns about early onset of conditions and insufficient preventive care for young people.

The study identifies several key risk factors associated with mental illness, including childhood sexual violence, bullying and intimate partner violence. These factors are strongly linked to conditions such as depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and anxiety disorders. However, researchers note that such exposures have remained relatively stable over time and account for only a portion of the overall rise.

According to the authors, broader drivers are likely contributing to the increasing prevalence of mental disorders. These include genetic and biological influences, poverty, inequality, and the growing impact of global crises such as armed conflict, pandemics, natural disasters and climate-related stress.

While mental health conditions have long been a leading cause of disability worldwide, the report warns that the situation is worsening. At the same time, health systems have not expanded services at a pace matching demand.

The authors caution that the gap between rising need and limited access to care is becoming more pronounced, leaving millions without adequate treatment or support.

Health

Europe Records Sharp Rise in Sexually Transmitted Infections, ECDC Warns

Published

5 days ago

May 21, 2026

Web Reporter

Cases of bacterial sexually transmitted infections across Europe have climbed to record levels after rising steadily for a decade, according to new figures released by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

The agency said infections such as gonorrhoea and syphilis reached their highest levels since European surveillance began, raising concerns among health officials about the growing impact on reproductive and long-term health.

“Sexually transmitted infections have been on the rise for 10 years and reached record high levels in 2024,” said Bruno Ciancio, head of the ECDC unit for directly transmitted and vaccine-preventable diseases.

The report found that gonorrhoea cases rose to 106,331 in 2024, marking a 303 percent increase since 2015. Syphilis infections more than doubled over the same period, reaching 45,577 cases. Chlamydia remained the most commonly reported infection, with 213,443 recorded cases.

Health officials warned that untreated infections can lead to serious complications, including infertility, chronic pain and neurological or cardiovascular problems linked to advanced syphilis.

The steepest increase was recorded in gonorrhoea cases. The ECDC said the 2024 notification rate was the highest since monitoring began in 2009.

Gonorrhoea, caused by the bacterium Neisseria gonorrhoeae, often shows no symptoms, particularly among women, making diagnosis and treatment more difficult and allowing transmission to continue unnoticed.

Between 2023 and 2024, gonorrhoea rates rose by 7.9 percent among men, with the highest levels seen in those aged 25 to 34. More than half of reported cases involved men who have sex with men.

Among women, reported gonorrhoea cases fell by 8.6 percent overall, although the highest rates remained among women aged between 20 and 24.

The ECDC said high infection rates among women of reproductive age remained concerning because of the risk of complications affecting fertility and reproductive health.

Ireland, Malta, Iceland, Luxembourg, Denmark and Spain recorded the highest gonorrhoea rates in 2024.

The report also highlighted a sharp increase in congenital syphilis, a condition in which the infection passes from a pregnant woman to her unborn child. Cases nearly doubled from 2023 levels and reached the highest point recorded since 2009.

Between 2015 and 2024, Bulgaria reported the highest number of congenital syphilis cases, followed by Portugal and Hungary.

The ECDC said congenital syphilis is preventable and noted that the World Health Organization European region has set a target of reducing cases to fewer than one per 100,000 live births by 2030.

Experts pointed to changing sexual behaviour as a major factor behind the increase in infections. Josep Mallolas, head of the HIV/AIDS unit at Hospital Clínic Barcelona, said condom use had declined while the number of sexual partners had increased, particularly among younger age groups.

The ECDC added that expanded screening programmes, improved testing access and better reporting systems may also partly explain the rise in detected cases. Officials called for broader prevention campaigns, increased testing and stronger monitoring efforts across Europe.

Health

White House Rejects Report It Blocked Return of Ebola-Infected US Doctor

Published

5 days ago

May 21, 2026

Web Reporter

The White House has denied reports that the United States blocked the return of an American missionary doctor infected with Ebola while working in the Democratic Republic of Congo, after a newspaper report claimed his evacuation to the US had been delayed over political and public health concerns.

The report, published by The Washington Post and citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, alleged that US officials initially refused to allow Dr. Peter Stafford to return home after he contracted Ebola in eastern Congo. According to the report, Stafford was eventually flown to Germany for treatment after delays linked to internal discussions within the administration.

White House spokesman Kush Desai strongly rejected the claims, calling the report “absolutely false.”

“The Trump administration’s overriding and sole priority is the health and safety of the American people,” Desai said in a statement. He added that Berlin’s Charité hospital is internationally recognised for treating highly infectious diseases and offers care comparable to top American medical centres.

Dr. Stafford had been working in Bunia, in eastern Congo, when he treated a patient suffering from severe abdominal pain. The illness was initially suspected to be linked to gallbladder complications, but the patient later died and was believed to have been infected with Ebola. A test confirming the disease was reportedly not conducted before burial.

Several days later, Stafford developed symptoms including fever, severe fatigue, pain and chills. He was eventually transported to Germany for specialist treatment at the Charité hospital in Berlin, which has extensive experience handling dangerous viral outbreaks.

The doctor’s wife and four children have also been admitted to the hospital’s isolation unit after US authorities requested assistance from Germany, according to the German Federal Health Ministry.

The controversy has revived memories of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, when two infected American aid workers were flown back to the United States for treatment. At the time, Donald Trump publicly criticised the decision in social media posts, warning against bringing Ebola patients into the country.

The latest outbreak in Congo has been identified as the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which carries a fatality rate estimated between 25 and 50 percent. Health officials say there are currently no approved vaccines or targeted treatments specifically for this strain.

Authorities in Congo have reported nearly 600 suspected cases and 139 deaths so far, although officials believe the real number of infections may be higher because of limited testing and surveillance capacity in affected regions.

Meanwhile, heightened concerns over Ebola have also affected international travel. A recent Air France flight from Paris to Detroit was diverted to Canada after US authorities reportedly denied the aircraft entry into American airspace because a passenger had recently travelled to Congo.

Despite the concerns surrounding his evacuation, reports from Berlin indicate Stafford’s condition has begun to improve and that he is now able to eat again.