Health
New Predictive Health Model Forecasts Risk of Over 1,000 Diseases
Scientists have developed a new predictive model that can estimate a person’s risk of developing more than 1,000 medical conditions, including diabetes, cancer, and heart disease, years before symptoms emerge.
The research, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, describes the tool as one of the largest demonstrations to date of how advanced data models could be applied to healthcare. The system was trained on anonymised health records from 400,000 people in the United Kingdom and tested using data from 1.9 million patients in Denmark.
By analysing the sequence of past medical events—such as diagnoses, smoking histories, and the time gaps between them—the model can identify patterns that often precede serious illnesses. Researchers stressed that the results represent probabilities, not certainties, likening the output to a weather forecast.
“This is the beginning of a new way to understand human health and disease progression,” said Moritz Gerstung, head of the oncology modelling group at the German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), which helped lead the project.
The model proved most reliable in predicting conditions with well-documented and consistent progression pathways. These include certain cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and septicaemia, a severe blood infection. Its accuracy was also stronger in the near term, providing more dependable forecasts over a span of several years than over decades.
However, the system struggled with conditions that are less predictable, such as infectious diseases, mental health disorders, and pregnancy-related complications. Researchers said this limitation highlights the complexity of these conditions and the challenges in forecasting them based on past data alone.
Ewan Birney, interim director general of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL), another partner in the project, described the results as “a big step towards more personalised and preventive approaches to healthcare.” He said the model demonstrated how long-term health data could be harnessed to generate meaningful predictions.
The collaborative effort also involved the University of Copenhagen. While the tool is not yet ready for clinical use, scientists believe it could eventually help doctors flag high-risk patients earlier and guide tailored preventive care. Gerstung said the model might “support earlier, more tailored interventions” once further validated.
Independent experts cautioned that the datasets used to build the system were limited in scope. Because they primarily reflect populations in the UK and Denmark, the findings may not be fully representative of other regions or diverse groups. More work will be needed to test the model across varied populations, particularly given differences in age, ethnicity, and healthcare access.
For now, researchers say the model’s value lies in deepening the understanding of how diseases evolve over time and how lifestyle factors interact with medical history to shape long-term health outcomes.
Health
Medieval Manuscripts Reveal Thousands-Year History of Deadly Sheep Virus
DNA recovered from medieval manuscripts has given scientists new clues about the long history of sheep pox, a highly contagious disease that has threatened livestock for thousands of years.
An international team led by researchers at University College Dublin discovered traces of sheep pox virus in parchment used for some of Europe’s historic manuscripts. The findings suggest that animal diseases may have left genetic records in old documents, providing scientists with another way to study how pathogens developed over time.
During the Middle Ages, parchment was commonly made from the treated skin of sheep, goats and cattle. Researchers extracted DNA from the animal skins used to produce centuries-old manuscripts and identified genetic material linked to the sheep pox virus.
The study involved geneticists, historians, virologists, protein chemists and conservation specialists. Louis L’Hôte, the study’s lead author, said the research showed that parchment could preserve DNA from animal pathogens and provide valuable evidence about infectious diseases in the past.
Among the manuscripts examined was the approximately 1,000-year-old York Gospels, considered one of the finest surviving illuminated manuscripts from the late Anglo-Saxon period. Researchers also examined the Corpus Glossary at Corpus Christi College in Cambridge, an early English dictionary, along with other medieval texts from Britain and continental Europe.
In some manuscripts, several pages contained sheep pox virus DNA. Researchers said this could indicate that animals infected with the disease were used to produce the parchment.
The team compared the genetic material recovered from the manuscripts with older DNA samples obtained from Bronze Age sheep teeth. Their analysis indicated that sheep pox has affected livestock for more than 3,700 years.
Sheep pox spreads quickly among animals and can infect a large proportion of a flock. The disease causes fever and skin lesions and can result in death. Outbreaks can also cause major financial losses through reduced milk production, damage to wool and hides, and restrictions on livestock trade.
There is no evidence that sheep pox infects humans.
The research, published in Science Advances, also provided insight into how the virus changed over time. Scientists found that the sheep pox virus genome remained relatively stable during the past several thousand years.
L’Hôte said the finding contrasts with the evolutionary history of some other pathogens, including smallpox. The stability of the sheep pox genome may indicate that important genetic changes occurred much earlier in the virus’s history and helped it adapt to sheep.
Researchers said the work could encourage scientists to examine other archives and libraries for genetic traces of historic animal diseases. Ancient DNA preserved in manuscripts could offer a new source of information about outbreaks that affected livestock and societies long before modern disease surveillance existed.
Health
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Health
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