Health
New Predictive Health Model Forecasts Risk of Over 1,000 Diseases
Scientists have developed a new predictive model that can estimate a person’s risk of developing more than 1,000 medical conditions, including diabetes, cancer, and heart disease, years before symptoms emerge.
The research, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, describes the tool as one of the largest demonstrations to date of how advanced data models could be applied to healthcare. The system was trained on anonymised health records from 400,000 people in the United Kingdom and tested using data from 1.9 million patients in Denmark.
By analysing the sequence of past medical events—such as diagnoses, smoking histories, and the time gaps between them—the model can identify patterns that often precede serious illnesses. Researchers stressed that the results represent probabilities, not certainties, likening the output to a weather forecast.
“This is the beginning of a new way to understand human health and disease progression,” said Moritz Gerstung, head of the oncology modelling group at the German Cancer Research Centre (DKFZ), which helped lead the project.
The model proved most reliable in predicting conditions with well-documented and consistent progression pathways. These include certain cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and septicaemia, a severe blood infection. Its accuracy was also stronger in the near term, providing more dependable forecasts over a span of several years than over decades.
However, the system struggled with conditions that are less predictable, such as infectious diseases, mental health disorders, and pregnancy-related complications. Researchers said this limitation highlights the complexity of these conditions and the challenges in forecasting them based on past data alone.
Ewan Birney, interim director general of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL), another partner in the project, described the results as “a big step towards more personalised and preventive approaches to healthcare.” He said the model demonstrated how long-term health data could be harnessed to generate meaningful predictions.
The collaborative effort also involved the University of Copenhagen. While the tool is not yet ready for clinical use, scientists believe it could eventually help doctors flag high-risk patients earlier and guide tailored preventive care. Gerstung said the model might “support earlier, more tailored interventions” once further validated.
Independent experts cautioned that the datasets used to build the system were limited in scope. Because they primarily reflect populations in the UK and Denmark, the findings may not be fully representative of other regions or diverse groups. More work will be needed to test the model across varied populations, particularly given differences in age, ethnicity, and healthcare access.
For now, researchers say the model’s value lies in deepening the understanding of how diseases evolve over time and how lifestyle factors interact with medical history to shape long-term health outcomes.
Health
World Cup Emotion Can Strain the Heart, Cardiologists Warn Fans at Risk
As the World Cup begins, medical experts are cautioning football fans with underlying heart conditions that the emotional intensity of matches can place unexpected strain on the cardiovascular system.
Cardiologists say that the excitement, tension, and anxiety generated during high-stakes games can trigger physical reactions similar to intense exercise, raising heart rate, blood pressure, and stress hormones.
“Intense emotions, whether positive or negative, can act as ‘precipitating risk factors’ for cardiovascular events such as heart attack,” said Paola Santalucia, a cardiologist and board member of the European Heart Network.
She explained that moments of extreme excitement, such as a decisive penalty shootout or a last-minute goal, may pose risks for people already living with heart disease. Those with additional risk factors, including hypertension, obesity, or smoking habits, are also advised to be cautious during emotionally charged matches.
Research using wearable devices has shown that during major football events, some fans experience heart rates climbing as high as 150 beats per minute. That level is comparable to sprinting and reflects how strongly the body reacts to emotional stress.
A study examining supporters during the 2025 German Cup final found that even watching from home can significantly affect physiological responses. “They still had an increase in heart rate that compares to walking, even though they didn’t walk,” said Christian Deutscher, professor of sports economics at Bielefeld University and co-author of the study.
He noted that the most intense reactions often occur not during goals themselves, but during moments of uncertainty such as VAR checks, penalty shootouts, or shots striking the post. These unpredictable situations, he said, are what drive the strongest emotional and physical responses among fans.
Deutscher also pointed out that stadium spectators may experience even greater strain due to environmental factors such as heat and alcohol consumption.
However, experts emphasize that football itself is not inherently dangerous. Instead, it is the body’s natural response to excitement that can create temporary stress.
“The adrenergic stimulation is at its max: extreme high blood pressure, high heart rate, and adrenaline, cortisol, skyrocketing,” said Dan Atar, professor of cardiology at Oslo University Hospital. In rare cases, he added, this surge can contribute to the rupture of arterial plaque in vulnerable individuals, potentially leading to a heart attack.
Atar stressed that such events can occur in everyday situations as well, including physical exertion like shoveling snow. “It is in no way dangerous to watch a football game,” he said. “All this is physiologic. It’s not dangerous to be excited.”
Still, he acknowledged that combining emotional stress with alcohol, heat, and pre-existing conditions can increase risk for some viewers.
Doctors advise those at higher risk to continue prescribed medications, limit alcohol intake, avoid smoking, and watch for warning signs such as chest pain or irregular heartbeat.
“The key message is not to avoid enjoying the match, but to do so with moderation and awareness,” Santalucia said.
Health
AI Models Show Ability to Mimic Human Emotions, Offering New Pathways for Mental Health Research
Health
AI Saves Clinicians Weeks of Work but Health Systems Struggle to Keep Up, Philips Report Finds
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