Health
Global Obesity Rates Expected to Soar by 2050, Study Warns
A new study published in The Lancet projects that by 2050, nearly 60% of adults and 31% of children and young people worldwide will be overweight or obese, marking a sharp increase from previous decades. The research highlights a growing health crisis, with experts warning of serious consequences for global well-being.
A Worsening Trend
According to the study, 3.8 billion adults and 746 million young people are expected to be overweight or obese by mid-century. This marks a significant rise from 1990 figures when 731 million adults and 198 million young people were classified as overweight or obese. The findings show that each new generation is gaining weight earlier and faster than before.
For example, in high-income countries, 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by the age of 25, but this percentage increased to 16% for men born in the 1990s and is expected to reach 25% for those born in 2015. This trend is fueling an epidemic linked to type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and certain cancers.
Emmanuela Gakidou, one of the study’s authors, called the obesity crisis a “monumental societal failure.”
Global Hotspots for Obesity
The study identified several countries as obesity hotspots. In 2021, over half of the world’s overweight or obese adults were concentrated in just eight countries:
- China (402 million)
- India (180 million)
- United States (172 million)
- Brazil (88 million)
- Russia (71 million)
- Mexico (58 million)
- Indonesia (52 million)
- Egypt (41 million)
Future growth in obesity rates is expected to be driven by population increases in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Among high-income nations, the United States, Chile, and Argentina are projected to have the highest obesity rates. In Europe, Greece is forecasted to have the highest levels of obesity by 2050, affecting 48% of women and 41% of men.
Impact on Healthcare Systems
As obesity rates climb, so do associated health risks. The study estimates that by 2050, one in four obese adults worldwide will be over 65, adding further strain on global healthcare systems. The effects are already being felt in countries like the U.S., Australia, and parts of Europe, where obesity-related health complications are lowering life expectancy and quality of life.
Despite these alarming trends, research suggests that only 7% of countries worldwide have healthcare systems prepared to tackle the rising obesity-related health burdens. Experts warn that without intervention, obesity will continue to drive millions of premature deaths annually from conditions like diabetes, heart disease, cancer, and stroke.
Rising Obesity Rates Among Young People
The research also paints a troubling picture for younger generations. While most young people in 2050 are expected to be overweight rather than obese, childhood and adolescent obesity rates are set to increase by 121%.
Obesity is expected to rise sharply in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean, as well as in large nations such as the U.S. and China. Among high-income nations, Chile is forecasted to have the highest childhood obesity rates, while the U.S. will lead in obesity among young adults (ages 15-24). In Europe, Greece and San Marino will have the highest rates among boys and girls, respectively.
Dr. Jessica Kerr, one of the study’s authors, emphasized that interventions are still possible, saying, “If we act now, we can prevent a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents.”
Calls for Policy Changes
Experts argue that addressing the crisis requires more than just medical treatments. The study measured obesity using body mass index (BMI), a widely used metric, but one that some researchers say should be replaced with more precise health indicators.
Meanwhile, new weight-loss drugs, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, have been hailed as potential game-changers, but experts caution that medications alone cannot stop the obesity epidemic.
Johanna Ralston, CEO of the World Obesity Federation, warned that tackling obesity requires comprehensive policy changes. Strategies such as food labeling, taxation on unhealthy foods, and better urban planning to encourage physical activity are crucial to combating the crisis.
“We can’t just treat our way out of it. We need to change the way we approach food and exercise as a society,” Ralston said.
The findings underscore the urgent need for a global, multi-pronged strategy to address the obesity epidemic before it becomes an even greater public health catastrophe.
Health
Medieval Manuscripts Reveal Thousands-Year History of Deadly Sheep Virus
DNA recovered from medieval manuscripts has given scientists new clues about the long history of sheep pox, a highly contagious disease that has threatened livestock for thousands of years.
An international team led by researchers at University College Dublin discovered traces of sheep pox virus in parchment used for some of Europe’s historic manuscripts. The findings suggest that animal diseases may have left genetic records in old documents, providing scientists with another way to study how pathogens developed over time.
During the Middle Ages, parchment was commonly made from the treated skin of sheep, goats and cattle. Researchers extracted DNA from the animal skins used to produce centuries-old manuscripts and identified genetic material linked to the sheep pox virus.
The study involved geneticists, historians, virologists, protein chemists and conservation specialists. Louis L’Hôte, the study’s lead author, said the research showed that parchment could preserve DNA from animal pathogens and provide valuable evidence about infectious diseases in the past.
Among the manuscripts examined was the approximately 1,000-year-old York Gospels, considered one of the finest surviving illuminated manuscripts from the late Anglo-Saxon period. Researchers also examined the Corpus Glossary at Corpus Christi College in Cambridge, an early English dictionary, along with other medieval texts from Britain and continental Europe.
In some manuscripts, several pages contained sheep pox virus DNA. Researchers said this could indicate that animals infected with the disease were used to produce the parchment.
The team compared the genetic material recovered from the manuscripts with older DNA samples obtained from Bronze Age sheep teeth. Their analysis indicated that sheep pox has affected livestock for more than 3,700 years.
Sheep pox spreads quickly among animals and can infect a large proportion of a flock. The disease causes fever and skin lesions and can result in death. Outbreaks can also cause major financial losses through reduced milk production, damage to wool and hides, and restrictions on livestock trade.
There is no evidence that sheep pox infects humans.
The research, published in Science Advances, also provided insight into how the virus changed over time. Scientists found that the sheep pox virus genome remained relatively stable during the past several thousand years.
L’Hôte said the finding contrasts with the evolutionary history of some other pathogens, including smallpox. The stability of the sheep pox genome may indicate that important genetic changes occurred much earlier in the virus’s history and helped it adapt to sheep.
Researchers said the work could encourage scientists to examine other archives and libraries for genetic traces of historic animal diseases. Ancient DNA preserved in manuscripts could offer a new source of information about outbreaks that affected livestock and societies long before modern disease surveillance existed.
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