Health
Global Breast Cancer Cases and Deaths Projected to Surge by 2050, WHO Reports
Breast cancer diagnoses and deaths are expected to increase significantly worldwide over the next few decades, with developing countries expected to bear the greatest burden, according to the latest projections from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) of the World Health Organization (WHO).
In 2022, 2.3 million women globally were diagnosed with breast cancer, and 670,000 died from the disease. With one in 20 women diagnosed in their lifetime, breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women. By 2050, breast cancer deaths are projected to rise by 68%, while new cases will increase by 38%.
“Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide, and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening,” said Dr. Joanne Kim, an IARC scientist and co-author of the study, published in the journal Nature Medicine.
While death rates have declined in Cuba and 29 wealthier nations, only seven countries—Malta, Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Slovenia—are meeting global health targets to reduce breast cancer deaths by at least 2.5% annually. Several others, including Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand, are nearing this goal. According to the study, if all countries achieved this reduction, global breast cancer deaths could be nearly halved by 2050.
The highest breast cancer incidence rates were reported in Australia, New Zealand, Northern America, and Northern Europe, possibly due to lifestyle factors such as alcohol consumption and lower physical activity levels. In Europe, the lifetime risk of developing breast cancer ranges from 4.9% in Ukraine to 11.1% in France. The risk of dying from the disease varies from 1.1% in Norway and Spain to 2.6% in Montenegro.
However, the mortality rate is significantly higher in developing regions like Melanesia, Polynesia, and Western Africa due to limited access to early detection, diagnosis, and treatment. While only 17% of breast cancer patients in wealthier nations die from the disease, the mortality rate rises to 56% in developing countries. Additionally, breast cancer is diagnosed at a younger age in Africa, where 47% of cases occur in women under 50, compared with 18% in North America, 19% in Europe, and 22% in Oceania.
Dr. Kim emphasized the importance of government investment in early detection and treatment programs, stating that such efforts could save millions of lives in the coming decades.
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