Health
Global Breast Cancer Cases and Deaths Projected to Surge by 2050, WHO Reports
Breast cancer diagnoses and deaths are expected to increase significantly worldwide over the next few decades, with developing countries expected to bear the greatest burden, according to the latest projections from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) of the World Health Organization (WHO).
In 2022, 2.3 million women globally were diagnosed with breast cancer, and 670,000 died from the disease. With one in 20 women diagnosed in their lifetime, breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women. By 2050, breast cancer deaths are projected to rise by 68%, while new cases will increase by 38%.
“Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide, and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening,” said Dr. Joanne Kim, an IARC scientist and co-author of the study, published in the journal Nature Medicine.
While death rates have declined in Cuba and 29 wealthier nations, only seven countries—Malta, Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Slovenia—are meeting global health targets to reduce breast cancer deaths by at least 2.5% annually. Several others, including Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand, are nearing this goal. According to the study, if all countries achieved this reduction, global breast cancer deaths could be nearly halved by 2050.
The highest breast cancer incidence rates were reported in Australia, New Zealand, Northern America, and Northern Europe, possibly due to lifestyle factors such as alcohol consumption and lower physical activity levels. In Europe, the lifetime risk of developing breast cancer ranges from 4.9% in Ukraine to 11.1% in France. The risk of dying from the disease varies from 1.1% in Norway and Spain to 2.6% in Montenegro.
However, the mortality rate is significantly higher in developing regions like Melanesia, Polynesia, and Western Africa due to limited access to early detection, diagnosis, and treatment. While only 17% of breast cancer patients in wealthier nations die from the disease, the mortality rate rises to 56% in developing countries. Additionally, breast cancer is diagnosed at a younger age in Africa, where 47% of cases occur in women under 50, compared with 18% in North America, 19% in Europe, and 22% in Oceania.
Dr. Kim emphasized the importance of government investment in early detection and treatment programs, stating that such efforts could save millions of lives in the coming decades.
Health
Medieval Manuscripts Reveal Thousands-Year History of Deadly Sheep Virus
DNA recovered from medieval manuscripts has given scientists new clues about the long history of sheep pox, a highly contagious disease that has threatened livestock for thousands of years.
An international team led by researchers at University College Dublin discovered traces of sheep pox virus in parchment used for some of Europe’s historic manuscripts. The findings suggest that animal diseases may have left genetic records in old documents, providing scientists with another way to study how pathogens developed over time.
During the Middle Ages, parchment was commonly made from the treated skin of sheep, goats and cattle. Researchers extracted DNA from the animal skins used to produce centuries-old manuscripts and identified genetic material linked to the sheep pox virus.
The study involved geneticists, historians, virologists, protein chemists and conservation specialists. Louis L’Hôte, the study’s lead author, said the research showed that parchment could preserve DNA from animal pathogens and provide valuable evidence about infectious diseases in the past.
Among the manuscripts examined was the approximately 1,000-year-old York Gospels, considered one of the finest surviving illuminated manuscripts from the late Anglo-Saxon period. Researchers also examined the Corpus Glossary at Corpus Christi College in Cambridge, an early English dictionary, along with other medieval texts from Britain and continental Europe.
In some manuscripts, several pages contained sheep pox virus DNA. Researchers said this could indicate that animals infected with the disease were used to produce the parchment.
The team compared the genetic material recovered from the manuscripts with older DNA samples obtained from Bronze Age sheep teeth. Their analysis indicated that sheep pox has affected livestock for more than 3,700 years.
Sheep pox spreads quickly among animals and can infect a large proportion of a flock. The disease causes fever and skin lesions and can result in death. Outbreaks can also cause major financial losses through reduced milk production, damage to wool and hides, and restrictions on livestock trade.
There is no evidence that sheep pox infects humans.
The research, published in Science Advances, also provided insight into how the virus changed over time. Scientists found that the sheep pox virus genome remained relatively stable during the past several thousand years.
L’Hôte said the finding contrasts with the evolutionary history of some other pathogens, including smallpox. The stability of the sheep pox genome may indicate that important genetic changes occurred much earlier in the virus’s history and helped it adapt to sheep.
Researchers said the work could encourage scientists to examine other archives and libraries for genetic traces of historic animal diseases. Ancient DNA preserved in manuscripts could offer a new source of information about outbreaks that affected livestock and societies long before modern disease surveillance existed.
Health
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Health
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