Business
UK Economy Nearly 10% Weaker Than Peers After Years of Brexit-Linked Drag, New Analysis Finds
A decade after the Brexit referendum, the UK economy has significantly diverged from its pre-2016 path, with a new report showing that prolonged uncertainty and reduced business investment have left the country substantially weaker than comparable advanced nations.
The analysis, published by the Decision Maker Panel at King’s College London, estimates that by early 2025 the UK economy was about 8% smaller than it would have been had it remained in the EU, based on national macroeconomic data. Firm-level data suggests a slightly smaller but still substantial gap of around 6%.
Researchers say the drag did not come from a single shock but from years of hesitation across the business landscape. Political turbulence, shifting trade rules and repeated negotiations led companies to freeze or delay investment, hiring and expansion. Instead of concentrating on new products or growth strategies, managers redirected time and resources toward contingency planning and adjusting to evolving regulations.
“Investment is estimated to have been 12% to 18% lower, employment 3% to 4% lower, and productivity also 3% to 4% lower than it would have been if the UK had not voted to leave the EU,” the report states.
The effects have varied across sectors. Companies most deeply tied into European supply chains — many of them high-productivity exporters — absorbed the hardest impact. Researchers describe the Brexit shift as a rare example of a “reverse trade reform,” noting that barriers were raised rather than dismantled.
While trade volumes did not collapse immediately after the referendum, the study highlights that this was partly because existing EU rules remained in place for several years. The major break came when the Trade and Cooperation Agreement took effect, marking a clear divergence in the UK’s trading conditions.
As the 2010s gave way to the post-Brexit era, the UK’s economic position slipped against other advanced economies. The report estimates that UK GDP per capita has grown between 6% and 10% less than similar countries, placing the country around the 10th percentile among its international peers.
Researchers also concluded that many early forecasts, although directionally correct, underestimated how persistent uncertainty would be. What policymakers initially viewed as a temporary period of adjustment has become an extended structural shift affecting investment behaviour, productivity performance and confidence.
The findings outline a picture of a country reshaped not by a single political decision but by years of diverted business energy and weakened competitiveness. Almost ten years after the referendum, the report argues, the economic effects continue to ripple through the UK, with little indication that the long-term drag has yet begun to ease.
Business
Global Stock Sell-Off Deepens as AI Data Centre Concerns Hit Chipmakers
European shares opened sharply lower on Friday as a heavy sell-off in US technology stocks spread across global markets, with investors concerned that political opposition to artificial intelligence data centres could slow the industry’s expansion.
The S&P 500 companies lost a record $2.9 trillion in market value on Thursday. In early European trading, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.2%, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.6%, while France’s CAC 40 and London’s FTSE 100 each declined 1.4%.
The MSCI AC Asia Index fell more than 4% as investors sold AI-related and semiconductor shares. However, US futures pointed to a possible pause, with Nasdaq-100 futures rising 1.5% at around 10:15 CET.
Markets were assessing whether sweeping Democratic victories in this week’s US midterm elections could result in tighter restrictions on data centre construction. Opposition to the projects has grown across political lines, with several successful candidates pledging to slow or stop new developments.
Market intelligence firm Cleanview estimates that about 40% of planned US data centre capacity is located in states where governors or governors-elect have pledged or already introduced pauses on new projects. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also proposed a federal moratorium earlier this year.
The uncertainty has raised questions about whether technology companies will earn sufficient returns on the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in AI infrastructure. Higher borrowing costs could also make construction more expensive, potentially reducing demand for chips and electricity.
Chipmakers lead global market declines
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.2% on Thursday, marking its largest one-day fall since 2020. The index was down around 16% for the week through the close.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.4%. All three recorded their steepest daily percentage losses since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025.
Stuart Clark, a portfolio manager at Quilter, said the declines highlighted the dependence of major US stock indices on a relatively small number of large technology and semiconductor companies.
The sell-off also reduced the fortunes of prominent technology executives. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang’s net worth fell by $15.1 billion, while Elon Musk’s dropped by $79.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Asian chipmakers also suffered heavy losses. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 6% lower, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 6% after an earlier decline of as much as 8.8% triggered a 20-minute trading halt. SK Hynix shares dropped 10.4% and Samsung Electronics lost 6.4%.
Taiwan’s Taiex finished 4.5% lower, with TSMC shares down 4.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was about 1.1% lower at the midday break, while Shanghai’s Composite declined 1.1%.
Neil Wilson of Saxo Markets described the sell-off as potentially excessive but said investors would first want to see markets stabilise.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Dutch bank ING was seeking to sell a portfolio of data centre loans worth about $500 million. Brent crude traded just below $99 a barrel, while government bonds gained as investors sought safer assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.84%, and the euro slipped 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1188.
Business
BMW Profits Fall as Chinese Competition Forces Deeper Cost Cuts
BMW reported a decline in third-quarter profits on Wednesday, a day after issuing its second profit warning of the year as mounting competition from Chinese carmakers and restructuring costs put pressure on the German manufacturer’s business.
The company’s pre-tax profit fell 11% in the three months to September, while net profit dropped around 15% to €1.45 billion. Revenue declined almost 6% to €30.45 billion, BMW said.
The latest warning, announced on Tuesday, followed higher restructuring expenses, including the planned elimination of around 8,000 jobs in Germany. BMW said these costs could push its core automotive division close to break-even, or into an operating loss, for the full year.
The operating margin in the car division fell to 3.4% in the third quarter, compared with 5.2% in the same period last year. BMW now expects the division’s full-year operating margin to range between minus 0.5% and plus 0.5%, a sharp reduction from its previous forecast of 1% to 3%.
BMW chief executive Milan Nedeljkovic said the company needed to respond quickly to changes across the automotive industry.
“Current developments in our industry call for decisiveness and swift implementation,” he said. “We will therefore specifically intensify and accelerate structural measures.”
The pressure reflects wider challenges facing German manufacturers, including Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, which are also reducing costs and jobs. Chinese carmakers have gained ground in their domestic market with competitively priced vehicles and advanced technology, while expanding their presence in Europe.
BMW’s difficulties have been particularly pronounced in China, traditionally one of its most important markets. Vehicle deliveries there fell 24.8% in the third quarter, extending a decline that has already taken sales to their lowest level since 2017 last year.
The drop in China contributed to a 6.3% decline in BMW’s global deliveries during the quarter. Sales moved in the opposite direction in other major markets, rising 2.6% in Europe and 2.5% in the United States.
The group, which owns the BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce brands, is seeking to regain ground in China by shifting more of the supply chain for vehicles made there to local suppliers. The strategy is intended to improve competitiveness and respond more closely to customer demand in the market.
The latest results add to concerns about the outlook for Germany’s automotive industry, which faces pressure from weaker demand, high production costs and the rapid expansion of Chinese competitors.
Despite the profit warning and weaker quarterly performance, BMW shares rose around 2% from Tuesday’s closing level by 11 a.m. Central European Time on Wednesday.
Business
Eurozone Opens Race to Replace ECB President Christine Lagarde
Eurozone governments have until Friday, 6 November, to nominate candidates to succeed European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, with finance ministers scheduled to review the submissions at a meeting on 9 November.
The appointment process began after Lagarde informed European Council President António Costa last week that she intended to leave the post on 7 February 2027, almost nine months before the end of her eight-year term.
A Eurogroup spokesperson told Euronews that the Council of the European Union had initiated the procedure to appoint her successor. The ECB Executive Board is appointed by the European Council, which makes its decision based on a recommendation from the Council of the EU.
Eurogroup President and Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis has asked eurozone members to submit nominations by Friday. The Eurogroup will then assess the candidates at its 9 November meeting.
A nominee must secure support from at least 16 of the 21 eurozone countries, representing at least 65 per cent of the bloc’s population. EU leaders will make the final appointment after receiving opinions from the European Parliament and the ECB’s Governing Council.
Lagarde announced her early departure last Thursday, saying she wanted greater freedom to speak about issues beyond monetary policy.
“I don’t think that I can remain neutral,” she told reporters in Frankfurt. “I’m interested in the truth, and I see the truth being very often damaged, contradicted by misrepresentation.”
She did not say whether she would support a candidate in France’s presidential election in April 2027. Her decision to leave early has fuelled speculation about the timing of the succession, allowing French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to influence the appointment before the election.
Lagarde has promised continuity at the central bank and is expected to chair two more interest-rate meetings, in December and February. The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.5 per cent at its latest meeting.
Two candidates have emerged as leading contenders. Spain has backed Pablo Hernández de Cos, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements and former governor of the Bank of Spain. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly endorsed him in September, while opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has also expressed support.
The Netherlands has backed former central bank governor Klaas Knot, who led the institution for 14 years until 2025. Prime Minister Rob Jetten described him as a “perfect fit” for many countries.
Other names mentioned in the race include former Bank of France governor François Villeroy de Galhau and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.
The negotiations are expected to extend beyond the presidency. ECB Executive Board positions held by Germany’s Isabel Schnabel and Ireland’s chief economist Philip Lane are also due to become vacant in the coming months. With several senior posts changing hands, governments are expected to negotiate over the appointments as part of a wider package.
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