Business
High Electricity Prices Threaten Europe’s Green Transition and Industrial Competitiveness
Rising electricity costs are slowing Europe’s shift to a low-carbon economy and putting key industries at a competitive disadvantage, according to Morningstar’s latest Electrification Observer report.
The European Union has relied on electrification to reduce emissions in sectors such as transport, heating, and heavy industry. Despite generous subsidies and ambitious targets, the pace of adoption remains slow. Europe is on track to electrify just 25% of its energy consumption by 2030, short of the 32% needed to meet climate goals.
“Europe finds itself in a difficult bind,” said Tancrede Fulop, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. “High electricity prices deter adoption of clean technologies. Heat pumps remain unaffordable for many households, while energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel lose ground to competitors in the US and China.”
Electricity in Europe is significantly more expensive than in the US and China, a gap widened by post-2021 market turbulence. Morningstar forecasts EU electricity consumption to grow at only 1.1% annually from 2024 to 2030, compared with 1.4% in the US. Network levies and taxes are expected to keep prices high, reducing incentives for households and industry to switch to cleaner energy.
The report highlights heat pump deployment as a clear example. Only 39 million units are expected to be installed by 2030, far below the EU target of 60 million. Residential electrification is projected to rise from 26% in 2023 to 28% by 2030, resulting in annual CO₂ reductions of just 1.7%, slower than the previous decade.
Data centres and electric vehicles will contribute only modest gains. Energy consumption by data centres is expected to grow 15% annually, reaching 182 terawatt-hours by 2030. Battery electric vehicles are projected to make up 45% of European auto sales by 2030, but the electrification of transport will cover only 5% of total energy use, reducing CO₂ emissions from road transport by just 5%.
High electricity costs are also affecting the chemical industry, which is expected to contract by 10% over the next five years. Green hydrogen production is forecast at just 0.6 megatonnes by 2030, far below the EU’s 10 Mt target, as power costs make it uncompetitive in most member states.
The report warns that slow electrification could increase political and policy pressure, potentially delaying EU climate measures such as the 2026 phaseout of free industrial carbon allowances and 2027 carbon pricing for residential heating. Under current trends, Europe is projected to reduce emissions by only 43% by 2030, short of the 55% target set for 1990 levels.
Regional differences are emerging. Northern Europe, France, and the Iberian Peninsula benefit from lower power costs and abundant clean energy, attracting data centres and green industrial projects. Other regions face higher costs and slower progress.
Morningstar concludes that Europe risks paying the high price of decarbonisation without achieving its full benefits, trapped in a transition that is both costly and politically sensitive.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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