Business
Goldman Sachs Downgrades Mercedes-Benz and Porsche Amid Industry Challenges
Goldman Sachs has downgraded German automotive giants Mercedes-Benz AG and Porsche AG, citing mounting challenges including rising costs, tariff risks, and weakening electric vehicle (EV) profitability. The move underscores growing concerns over the European car industry as it grapples with intensifying market pressures.
In a note released Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst George Galliers highlighted a bleak outlook for 2025, driven by higher labor costs, stricter environmental regulations, and dwindling earnings from Chinese joint ventures. The sector, already reeling from a 12% decline in 2024, faces an anticipated 9% earnings drop in 2025 and a further 6% in 2026.
Challenges Facing European Automakers
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), a cornerstone of Europe’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions, remain a significant challenge for profitability. Goldman Sachs projects BEV penetration in Europe and the European Free Trade Association to grow from 14.3% in 2024 to 19% in 2025, driven by regulatory pressures. However, Galliers questioned whether the anticipated sales growth could offset high production costs, which continue to weigh on profit margins.
Another pressing issue is the sharp decline in earnings from Chinese joint ventures. According to Goldman, these earnings fell 36% year-on-year in 2024, reflecting broader difficulties faced by Western automakers in the world’s largest car market. Notably, Ford and General Motors have already seen their Chinese operations become unprofitable, raising concerns that European manufacturers could face a similar fate.
Downgrade Details
Goldman Sachs downgraded Porsche SE from a “Buy” to a “Sell” rating, citing limited growth prospects and ongoing financial risks. Galliers noted that softening demand for BEVs in Western markets and challenges in China could dampen Porsche’s outlook for 2025. Additionally, high leverage and Volkswagen’s restructuring efforts are expected to hinder near-term financial improvements.
Mercedes-Benz AG was downgraded from “Buy” to “Neutral.” The report pointed to declining demand for luxury vehicles, mixed reception for AMG models, and challenges posed by an ageing S-Class lineup. By the end of Q3 2024, Mercedes’ car division had seen a 44% decline in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), with a further 14% drop forecasted for 2025 before a modest recovery in 2026.
Despite these setbacks, the report highlighted opportunities for Mercedes in autonomous driving technology and its partnership with Nvidia. Advancements in these areas, coupled with shareholder return strategies, could provide a brighter long-term outlook.
Tariff Risks and Industry Uncertainty
Trade tensions and tariff risks further complicate the industry’s recovery. The European Union recently imposed tariffs on Chinese-made BEVs, while potential trade disputes with the U.S. could disrupt global supply chains.
A Potential Bright Spot
Amid the challenges, Renault emerged as a potential outperformer in the European auto sector. Goldman cited the French automaker’s focus on cost discipline and strong product pipeline as key strengths.
As European automakers navigate this turbulent landscape, Galliers remarked: “Secular concerns have weighed on auto multiples for almost a decade.” The question remains whether industry leaders can adapt to an evolving market and reclaim their competitive edge.
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