Business

Gold Looks to 2026 After a Record-Breaking Year Marked by Geopolitical Tension and Strong Central Bank Demand

Published

4 months ago

December 9, 2025

Gold enters 2026 after one of the strongest years in its modern history, rising more than 60% in 2025 and setting over 50 record highs. The surge placed the metal ahead of all major asset classes and delivered its best performance since 1979. Now, investors are assessing whether gold can extend its momentum over the next year or whether the market is nearing a turning point.

Analysts say the 2025 rally was the product of several overlapping global forces. Persistent geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty, a softening US dollar, and expectations of lower interest rates all helped drive demand. Central banks also played a decisive role by continuing to absorb large volumes of gold, keeping official-sector buying well above pre-pandemic levels.

Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) highlights how these factors contributed to the metal’s rise. Geopolitical tensions alone added roughly 12 percentage points to year-to-date performance, while a weaker dollar and modestly lower rates provided another 10 points. Economic expansion and investor positioning also offered meaningful support.

Looking ahead, the WGC expects many of the same pressures to influence the market in 2026. But it cautions that gold begins the year from a very different starting point. Prices have already factored in broad expectations of steady global growth, moderate rate cuts, and a stable dollar. With real interest rates no longer falling sharply and momentum cooling, the Council describes gold as fairly valued at current levels.

In its central outlook, the WGC projects gold trading in a narrow band next year, with returns likely ranging between a 5% decline and a 5% gain. The group notes that investor sentiment is balanced rather than defensive, reducing the likelihood of outsized moves unless economic conditions shift significantly.

Three alternative scenarios could force a deviation from this baseline. In a mild economic slowdown marked by extra US rate cuts, gold could rise 5% to 15% as investors position more cautiously. A deeper recession could push gains even higher, with the WGC estimating a potential 15% to 30% jump driven by aggressive policy easing and renewed safe-haven flows. On the other hand, if pro-growth policies from the Trump administration lift yields and strengthen the dollar, gold could fall 5% to 20% as opportunity costs rise.

Despite the WGC’s measured tone, major Wall Street institutions remain bullish. J.P. Morgan Private Bank expects prices to climb to between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs forecasts around $4,900. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley also see room for appreciation, though both acknowledge possible volatility in the coming months.

Much of this optimism is tied to ongoing demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, and the belief that many global investors remain underexposed to gold. Softening real yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty are also seen as supportive.

At the same time, risks could hinder further gains. A stronger US economy, renewed inflation pressures, or reduced central bank buying could weigh on the market. Rising supply from recycled gold, particularly in India where the metal is widely used as collateral, may also place pressure on prices.

While a repeat of 2025’s dramatic rise appears unlikely, analysts agree that gold enters the new year from a position of strength. Its reputation as a hedge during unpredictable times remains firmly intact, keeping it central to many investors’ long-term strategies.

Business

Fuel Prices Surge Across Europe as Middle East Crisis Pushes Oil Above $100

Published

2 days ago

April 10, 2026

Web Reporter

Fuel prices across Europe have risen sharply in recent weeks following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with both petrol and diesel costs climbing significantly since late February.

The increase comes as Brent crude oil prices moved above $100 per barrel after a joint strike by the United States and Israel on Iran, triggering concerns about global energy supply. The rise in crude prices has quickly filtered down to consumers across European countries.

According to the European Commission, the average price of Euro-super 95 petrol in the European Union stood at €1.871 per litre at the end of March, while diesel reached €2.076 per litre. Compared to late February, petrol prices are about 15 percent higher, while diesel has surged by around 30 percent.

There are wide differences in fuel prices across EU member states. The Netherlands recorded the highest diesel prices at €2.46 per litre, followed by Denmark and Germany. Other countries with above-average diesel costs include Finland, Belgium, France and Ireland.

At the other end of the scale, Malta reported the lowest diesel price at €1.21 per litre, significantly below the EU average. Hungary, Slovenia and Bulgaria also ranked among the least expensive markets for diesel. In several countries including Spain, Slovakia and Croatia, diesel prices remained below €2 per litre.

Petrol prices show a similar pattern. The Netherlands again recorded the highest price at €2.33 per litre, with Denmark and Germany also among the most expensive. Greece and France reported petrol prices above €2 per litre as well.

Malta had the lowest petrol price at €1.34 per litre, followed by Bulgaria. Other relatively cheaper markets included Slovenia, Hungary and Spain, where prices remained below €1.60 per litre.

The data also highlights the role of taxation in fuel pricing. Taxes account for a significant portion of costs across Europe, making up more than half of petrol prices and nearly 45 percent of diesel prices on average. The share varies by country, with Slovenia recording one of the highest tax proportions on petrol, while Bulgaria had one of the lowest.

Despite the shift toward cleaner energy, traditional fuels continue to dominate the European vehicle market. According to Eurostat, petrol-powered cars accounted for 66.6 percent of new registrations in 2024, followed by diesel vehicles at 16.9 percent and fully electric cars at 13.5 percent.

The latest rise in fuel costs underscores the continued sensitivity of European energy markets to geopolitical developments, with consumers facing increased expenses as global tensions persist.

Business

Oil Prices Surge as Strait of Hormuz Closure Shakes Markets

Published

3 days ago

April 9, 2026

Web Reporter

The brief sigh of relief across global markets lasted barely a day. Brent crude climbed sharply back towards $100 a barrel on Thursday after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending a clear signal that the fragile Middle East ceasefire was already fracturing.

The global benchmark was trading at $98.61 a barrel in early afternoon dealings, up about 4 percent, after plunging as much as 16 percent the previous day to below $91. That earlier drop had been driven by optimism that a two-week pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran could ease tensions and stabilize energy flows.

Iran’s move to shut the strategic waterway followed Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which Tehran described as a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global energy supplies, carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure has raised immediate concerns among governments and businesses about supply disruptions and rising costs.

Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company Adnoc, said Iran appeared to be using control of the strait as a political tool rather than ensuring free navigation. Analysts say such actions could deepen uncertainty for industries that rely heavily on stable energy supplies.

Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisory firm deVere, warned that the situation leaves a significant share of global oil flows exposed to geopolitical risk. For small and medium-sized businesses already dealing with high energy costs, the renewed volatility adds further pressure.

Stock markets reacted negatively to the developments. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent after posting strong gains the previous day, while Germany’s DAX dropped 1.4 percent and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.7 percent. In Asia, major indexes in Japan, South Korea, and China all closed lower.

Wall Street, which had rallied strongly on Wednesday with the S&P 500 rising 2.5 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining nearly 3 percent, was expected to open lower as investor confidence weakened.

US President Donald Trump said American forces would remain in the Gulf until a lasting agreement is secured and respected, warning of serious consequences if the situation deteriorates further.

Meanwhile, Israel intensified its military operations in Lebanon, carrying out its heaviest strikes since the conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group escalated last month. Reports indicate that more than 250 people have been killed in the latest wave of attacks.

The renewed instability highlights the continued vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical tensions. With oil prices approaching $100 a barrel once again, businesses are facing renewed uncertainty, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and logistics that are highly sensitive to fuel costs.

Business

Spain Employment Hits Record as Social Security Enrolment Tops 22 Million

Published

6 days ago

April 6, 2026

Web Reporter

Spain’s labour market reached a historic milestone in March, with Social Security enrolment surpassing 22 million contributors for the first time, driven by seasonal hiring linked to Easter and continued growth in the services sector.

New data released on Monday showed that the number of contributors, adjusted for seasonal variations, rose to 22,010,532 after 80,274 jobs were added during the month. In average terms, employment increased by 211,510 people, marking the largest rise ever recorded for a March period.

Unadjusted figures also reflected a record level, with more than 21.8 million people registered with Social Security. The government highlighted that the number of contributors has grown by nearly 3.4 million since 2018, pointing to sustained expansion in the labour market.

Officials said the latest gains were supported by increased activity during Easter Week, which traditionally boosts employment in tourism, hospitality and other service-related industries. Growth has also been noted in higher-skilled sectors, including information technology, science and professional services.

The data showed that female employment continues to rise, nearing 10.4 million, while permanent contracts have increased as a share of overall employment. Authorities linked these trends to labour reforms introduced in recent years aimed at improving job stability and workforce participation.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez acknowledged the milestone in a brief social media message before later praising workers in a video statement. He said the achievement reflected the efforts of millions of people contributing to the country’s economic progress.

The labour market report also indicated a modest improvement in unemployment. The number of jobless people fell by 0.9 percent in March to 2.42 million, the lowest level recorded for the month since 2008. Over the past year, unemployment has declined by more than 160,000.

Second Vice-President and Employment Minister Yolanda Díaz said that both female and youth unemployment have reached historic lows. She attributed the positive results to structural changes in the labour market and policies designed to support job creation and stability.

Economists note that while seasonal factors played a role in the March figures, the broader trend points to continued resilience in Spain’s economy. Strong demand in services and ongoing improvements in employment conditions have helped sustain growth despite external uncertainties.

The latest figures underline the strength of Spain’s recovery in recent years, with employment reaching new highs and unemployment continuing its gradual decline.