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Gold Looks to 2026 After a Record-Breaking Year Marked by Geopolitical Tension and Strong Central Bank Demand

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Gold enters 2026 after one of the strongest years in its modern history, rising more than 60% in 2025 and setting over 50 record highs. The surge placed the metal ahead of all major asset classes and delivered its best performance since 1979. Now, investors are assessing whether gold can extend its momentum over the next year or whether the market is nearing a turning point.

Analysts say the 2025 rally was the product of several overlapping global forces. Persistent geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty, a softening US dollar, and expectations of lower interest rates all helped drive demand. Central banks also played a decisive role by continuing to absorb large volumes of gold, keeping official-sector buying well above pre-pandemic levels.

Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) highlights how these factors contributed to the metal’s rise. Geopolitical tensions alone added roughly 12 percentage points to year-to-date performance, while a weaker dollar and modestly lower rates provided another 10 points. Economic expansion and investor positioning also offered meaningful support.

Looking ahead, the WGC expects many of the same pressures to influence the market in 2026. But it cautions that gold begins the year from a very different starting point. Prices have already factored in broad expectations of steady global growth, moderate rate cuts, and a stable dollar. With real interest rates no longer falling sharply and momentum cooling, the Council describes gold as fairly valued at current levels.

In its central outlook, the WGC projects gold trading in a narrow band next year, with returns likely ranging between a 5% decline and a 5% gain. The group notes that investor sentiment is balanced rather than defensive, reducing the likelihood of outsized moves unless economic conditions shift significantly.

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Three alternative scenarios could force a deviation from this baseline. In a mild economic slowdown marked by extra US rate cuts, gold could rise 5% to 15% as investors position more cautiously. A deeper recession could push gains even higher, with the WGC estimating a potential 15% to 30% jump driven by aggressive policy easing and renewed safe-haven flows. On the other hand, if pro-growth policies from the Trump administration lift yields and strengthen the dollar, gold could fall 5% to 20% as opportunity costs rise.

Despite the WGC’s measured tone, major Wall Street institutions remain bullish. J.P. Morgan Private Bank expects prices to climb to between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs forecasts around $4,900. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley also see room for appreciation, though both acknowledge possible volatility in the coming months.

Much of this optimism is tied to ongoing demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, and the belief that many global investors remain underexposed to gold. Softening real yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty are also seen as supportive.

At the same time, risks could hinder further gains. A stronger US economy, renewed inflation pressures, or reduced central bank buying could weigh on the market. Rising supply from recycled gold, particularly in India where the metal is widely used as collateral, may also place pressure on prices.

While a repeat of 2025’s dramatic rise appears unlikely, analysts agree that gold enters the new year from a position of strength. Its reputation as a hedge during unpredictable times remains firmly intact, keeping it central to many investors’ long-term strategies.

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Business

Crypto Ownership Rises Across Europe Despite Volatile 2025

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Crypto assets faced a turbulent year in 2025, with a sharp market sell-off in October triggered by US President Donald Trump’s threat of new tariffs on China. Despite volatility, European interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow, with ownership rates rising across the continent.

According to the ‘Web3 Industry in France and Europe’ report by Adan, more than 90 percent of adults in major European economies are aware of crypto assets. Data from the European Central Bank shows that nine percent of eurozone adults held crypto in 2024, up from four percent in 2022. Ownership varies across countries, ranging from six percent in the Netherlands and Germany to 15 percent in Slovenia. Greece, Ireland, Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, and Austria follow closely, reflecting modest differences among nations.

James Sullivan, chief risk and compliance officer at BCB Group, said ownership patterns are shaped by digital adoption, investor risk appetite, and local market conditions. “Countries with strong financial innovation and a younger, predominantly male investor base tend to lead,” he told Euronews Business. Regulatory and economic factors also play a role. In markets with limited traditional investment options, crypto is often used speculatively, while awareness campaigns, like those in Italy, can boost adoption.

The UK, though not part of the eurozone, shows strong crypto activity, ranking third globally in transaction volumes behind the US and India as of 2024.

Across the eurozone, ownership more than doubled between 2022 and 2024. Greece and Lithuania recorded the largest increases, rising by ten percentage points, while Cyprus, Belgium, Ireland, Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Portugal, and Italy also saw gains of seven points or more. The Netherlands remained stable, while data for Croatia in 2022 is unavailable. Sullivan said this trend reflects growing consumer confidence, supported by global market momentum and the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation.

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MiCA establishes uniform rules for crypto assets, providing regulatory clarity and consumer protection. Sullivan said the framework signals mainstream recognition of crypto, encouraging cautious investors to enter the market.

Investment remains the primary use for crypto. In the eurozone, 64 percent of holders use it for investment, while 16 percent use it for payments, and 19 percent for both. The Netherlands and Germany show the highest focus on investment despite lower overall ownership, while France has the largest share of users leveraging crypto for payments at 25 percent.

Sullivan noted that most European consumers still use crypto primarily for speculation rather than daily transactions. While stablecoins could offer practical payment solutions, their adoption remains limited compared with traditional methods such as cards and cash. He added that the long-term success of crypto as a transactional tool will depend on MiCA’s effectiveness in regulating euro-denominated stablecoins and integrating them into existing payment systems.

Despite 2025’s volatility, the rise in ownership indicates that European retail interest in crypto remains strong, with regulation and market momentum supporting continued growth.

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Crypto Ownership Rising Across Europe Despite Market Volatility

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Cryptocurrencies have experienced a turbulent 2025, including a sharp sell-off in October following US President Donald Trump’s threat of new tariffs on China. Despite these fluctuations, crypto ownership continues to grow across Europe, according to recent reports.

The ‘Web3 Industry in France and Europe’ report by Adan, using data from early 2025, found that more than 90 percent of adults in major European economies are aware of crypto-assets. Ownership of these digital assets, though still limited, has been steadily increasing.

Data from a European Central Bank survey shows that in 2024, nine percent of adults in the eurozone held crypto-assets. Ownership varies across countries, ranging from six percent in the Netherlands and Germany to 15 percent in Slovenia. Other nations with above-average adoption include Greece, Ireland, Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, and Austria.

Experts attribute these differences to factors such as digital adoption, risk appetite, and local market conditions. James Sullivan, chief risk and compliance officer at BCB Group, told Euronews Business that countries with younger, more digitally-savvy investors and higher levels of financial innovation tend to have higher ownership rates. Local regulatory frameworks and economic conditions also play a role. In markets with limited traditional investment options, crypto may be used more speculatively, while awareness campaigns, like those conducted in Italy, boost adoption.

The UK, though not part of the eurozone, ranks third globally in transaction volumes behind the US and India, reflecting continued strong consumer activity.

Ownership of crypto-assets across the eurozone more than doubled between 2022 and 2024, rising from four percent to nine percent. Greece and Lithuania saw the largest increases, each climbing by ten percentage points, while Cyprus, Belgium, Ireland, Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Portugal, and Italy saw gains of seven points or more. The Netherlands was the only country where the rate remained unchanged.

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Sullivan highlighted that growing European interest in crypto reflects renewed confidence following previous market downturns. The introduction of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which sets uniform EU rules for previously unregulated crypto assets, has contributed to trust and encouraged new investors.

The majority of crypto holders use these assets primarily as an investment. In the eurozone, 64 percent of users cited investment as their main purpose, 16 percent for payments, and 19 percent for both. The Netherlands and Germany, despite relatively low ownership rates, had the highest shares of investment-focused users at 90 and 82 percent, respectively. France reported the highest use for payments at 25 percent.

Sullivan noted that while cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, have transactional potential, day-to-day use remains limited. He said broader adoption for payments will depend on MiCA’s success in regulating stablecoins and integrating them into existing payment systems, a key focus for the European Central Bank.

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Motherhood Can Narrow Career Opportunities Through Subtle Task Shifts, Study Finds

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Gender inequality in the workplace goes beyond measurable gaps in pay and representation, a recent study suggests, showing that subtle changes in women’s job tasks after having children can significantly hinder long-term career growth.

While disparities in earnings, employment, and leadership roles are well documented, women who take primary responsibility for childcare often face additional, less visible barriers just when their careers would otherwise accelerate. Research from Germany highlights that after childbirth, women are frequently assigned fewer analytical, complex, and interactive tasks, especially when they reduce working hours, quietly limiting opportunities for advancement.

The study, published in the Journal of Marriage and Family and titled The Job Task Penalty for Motherhood, was conducted by Wiebke Schulz of Bremen University and Gundula Zoch of Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg. Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study, the researchers tracked 1,978 women from 2011 to 2020, analyzing changes in five key dimensions of job tasks: analytical, complex, autonomous, interactive, and manual.

Schulz explained that interactive tasks, which often involve coordination and being “on call” for colleagues or clients, are easiest to reassign when caregiving responsibilities arise. Analytical or complex tasks, requiring sustained focus or ownership of long-term projects, also decline, sometimes because managers pre-emptively steer mothers away from high-responsibility work regardless of their actual capacity.

“After childbirth, many women see a shift from high-cognitive, high-interaction tasks to a narrower set of duties,” Schulz told Euronews Business. “Even small short-term downgrades can accumulate. Analytical and interactive tasks are where skills grow, performance is visible, and leadership pipelines are built. Losing access to them can slow wage growth, reduce promotion chances, and lock people into flatter career trajectories—even if job titles remain unchanged.”

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While the research focuses on Germany, Schulz noted that similar patterns appear across Europe, though the magnitude varies depending on cultural norms and institutional support.

The study recommends that employers make task allocation more transparent, tracking who receives high-growth assignments before and after parental leave or part-time transitions. Part-time roles can also be redesigned, with complex work broken into modular tasks and team-based ownership to maintain access to analytical and high-responsibility projects.

Training managers to recognize expectation-based bias is crucial, the study adds, as anticipatory reassignment can be just as damaging as performance-related reassignment. Policymakers are encouraged to expand full-day childcare and school coverage, strengthen flexible work rights with career protections, and incentivize fathers’ leave to reduce the assumption that mothers must adjust their roles.

The findings underline that gender inequality in the workplace is not only about who is hired or promoted, but also about the subtle ways work is allocated, shaping the long-term career paths of women across industries.

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