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Euro Rises to Two-Month High Amid Tariff Delay and Ukraine Peace Talks

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The euro surged to its highest level in nearly two months on Monday, bolstered by US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs and his push for peace talks in Ukraine. However, analysts caution that the common currency’s rebound may be short-lived amid lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Euro Gains as Inflation Concerns Ease

The EUR/USD pair climbed to nearly 1.05 in the early Asian trading session, reaching levels last seen on December 18 and briefly touched again in late January. The euro’s rally is largely attributed to Trump’s unexpected tariff delay and renewed optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

Market sentiment improved last week after Trump announced a delay in his proposed reciprocal tariffs, a move that eased concerns over inflationary pressures. While the US president has frequently used tariff threats as a negotiation tool, he has so far only implemented a 10% levy on Chinese goods, leaving markets hopeful that further duties might be scaled back or scrapped.

Adding to the optimism, crude oil prices dropped sharply following Trump’s phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The discussion, which Trump described as “lengthy and highly productive”, fueled speculation that negotiations might include easing restrictions on Russian oil exports. If that were to happen, inflationary pressures could subside further, strengthening the euro while weakening the US dollar.

The improved outlook for European markets has led traders to favor the euro and British pound, according to Michael McCarthy, Chief Commercial Officer at Moomoo Australia. “Markets are seeing this as a ‘double win’ trade—peace prospects in Ukraine are boosting sentiment toward the European economy, while waning post-election optimism in the US is pulling the dollar down,” he said.

Concerns Over Sustainability of Euro’s Rally

Despite the temporary boost, market analysts warn that the euro’s gains could be short-lived as both Trump’s tariff policy and Ukraine peace negotiations remain highly uncertain.

Just days after announcing the tariff delay, Trump revealed plans to introduce new levies on automobiles starting April 2, targeting key US trading partners—particularly the European Union. The sweeping reciprocal tariffs remain under review by the US Commerce Department, with a final decision expected by April 1. Should these tariffs be implemented aggressively, they could undermine confidence in the euro and push the currency lower once again.

Similarly, while talks of a Ukraine peace deal have sparked optimism, the complexity of ceasefire negotiations means a resolution could take months, if not longer. A key meeting in Paris on Monday, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, will see EU leaders—including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—discuss a joint military defense spending package. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also expected to participate, aiming to strengthen European defense capabilities in post-war Ukraine.

However, Trump has insisted that the EU take greater responsibility for its own security, which could pressure European governments to increase military spending—potentially leading to higher debt levels that could weigh on the euro.

Upcoming German Elections Add to Uncertainty

Another looming factor that could impact the euro is Germany’s snap elections, set to take place in less than a week. Political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy has historically pressured the euro, and a volatile election outcome could further weaken investor confidence in the currency.

Despite the euro’s current strength, some analysts remain bullish on the US dollar, pointing to America’s strong economic performance compared to Europe’s fragile recovery.

“My stance remains bullish USD,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London, in a client note. “Ongoing US economic outperformance should see both the dollar and US stocks continue to climb, albeit in a volatile manner,” he added.

With tariff decisions pending, geopolitical tensions still unresolved, and European economic challenges persisting, the euro’s rally may struggle to hold in the coming weeks.

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Trump Highlights McDonald’s in Economic Message as Beef Prices Rise

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President Donald Trump used a speech at the McDonald’s Impact Summit on Monday to cast himself as a champion of affordability, even as beef prices continue to rise for U.S. consumers.

Trump praised McDonald’s as “one of the most successful companies in the history of the world” and thanked the fast-food chain for lowering prices. His remarks came amid data showing the average price of ground beef reached $6.32 per pound in September, up about 13 percent from a year earlier.

The president also referenced the Big Mac Index, a widely recognized, though informal, measure of inflation. According to the latest Economist reading, a U.S. Big Mac cost $6.01 in July, up from $5.69 a year earlier and $5.15 three years ago. The index compares Big Mac prices across countries to illustrate changes in purchasing power.

“I’m honoured to stand before you as the very first former McDonald’s fry cook ever to become president of the United States,” Trump told McDonald’s franchise representatives in Washington. He highlighted a brief stint working behind the counter, a reference used throughout his 2024 campaign.

Trump also recalled serving McDonald’s on the campaign trail from his private plane, Trump Force One, and said he once made Robert F. Kennedy Jr. try a meal at the chain. In addition, he mentioned tech industry figures, thanking Sundar Pichai and Sergey Brin for acknowledging his McDonald’s-themed campaign skit, which he described as receiving “more hits than anything in the history of Google.”

The president’s remarks tied the fast-food chain to his economic message, emphasizing support for small businesses and affordable dining options. “As president, I’m fighting every day to support small businesses like yours… we’re making tremendous progress,” Trump said, addressing the franchisees in attendance.

Despite Trump’s framing, household budgets continue to feel the impact of higher prices. While inflation has eased somewhat since post-pandemic peaks, many consumers still pay more for everyday goods such as beef and coffee than in previous years. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in September after increasing 0.4 percent in August.

Trump’s use of McDonald’s in his speech underscores the chain’s symbolic role as an American institution and a gauge of everyday affordability. By linking his message to the familiar restaurant brand, the president sought to present himself as closely connected to working-class concerns while highlighting ongoing economic initiatives.

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Japan’s Economy Contracts as U.S. Tariffs Hit Exports, Posing Early Test for New Prime Minister

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Japan’s economy recorded a sharp slowdown in the July–September quarter, contracting for the first time in a year and a half as U.S. trade tariffs weighed heavily on exports. Government figures released on Monday showed an annualised decline of 1.8%, driven largely by weakened overseas demand after Washington imposed new duties on Japanese goods.

While the downturn was significant, it was not as steep as the 2.6% drop projected by economists. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, gross domestic product slipped 0.4%, ending six straight quarters of expansion and signalling a tougher economic landscape for recently appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Exports recorded one of the sharpest declines of the quarter, falling 1.2% from the previous period. The government noted that some firms rushed shipments earlier in the year to get ahead of tariff deadlines, which boosted earlier export data but resulted in weaker numbers for the autumn quarter. On an annualised basis, exports tumbled 4.5%.

Imports were slightly lower as well, dipping 0.1%, while private consumption — a key driver of the domestic economy — inched up by the same margin. Economists say the modest rise in household spending is not enough to offset the strain placed on the country’s major industries.

The tariff pressures stem from measures introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has implemented a 15% duty on nearly all Japanese imports. Although this marks a reduction from the previous 25% rate, the impact has been severe for Japan’s export-heavy economy. Automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp. have long been central to Japan’s global trade profile, though many have built factories abroad to reduce exposure to such trade barriers.

The latest GDP results add to the mounting challenges facing Takaichi, who assumed office in October. Alongside the economic risks, her government is navigating rising diplomatic tensions with China. Earlier this month, the prime minister stated that Japan may consider military action if Beijing launches an attack on Taiwan, prompting sharp reactions from Chinese officials.

Talks between diplomats from both countries are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, with economic stability and regional security expected to dominate the agenda.

The combination of trade pressures, geopolitical strain and a fragile domestic recovery places Japan at a sensitive moment, with policymakers now under heightened pressure to stabilise growth in the months ahead.

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Global Stocks Fall as Tech Valuations and Fed Rate Uncertainty Weigh on Markets

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Global equities declined on Friday as investors grew cautious over high valuations in technology and AI sectors, coupled with uncertainty about whether the US Federal Reserve will deliver further interest-rate cuts. European markets opened sharply lower following losses in Asian shares and a drop on Wall Street on Thursday.

“Markets are down across the board as investors fret about cracks in the narrative that’s driven the mother of all tech rallies over the past few years,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. He highlighted concerns over elevated equity prices and heavy spending on AI amid signs of a fragile labor market.

In Europe, UK government bond yields surged after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves had abandoned plans to raise income taxes in this month’s Autumn Budget, raising questions about a potential fiscal shortfall. The ten-year gilt yield climbed above 4.54% before easing slightly. Bank shares were among the worst performers on the FTSE 100, which fell more than 1.1% by 11:00 CET. Other European indices also declined, with the Stoxx 600 down nearly 1%, Germany’s DAX off 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.7%, Madrid’s benchmark losing 1.2% and Milan’s index down 1%.

Some companies bucked the overall trend. Luxury group Richemont rose 7.5% after exceeding first-half profit expectations, and Siemens Energy gained more than 10% after raising its 2028 financial targets. In contrast, Ubisoft delayed its six-month financial report, triggering a suspension in trading after an earlier drop of over 8%.

Wall Street had suffered a sharp decline on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both down 1.7%, and the Nasdaq falling 2.3%. Technology and AI-linked stocks experienced heavy selling, with Nvidia down 3.6%, Super Micro Computer off 7.4%, Palantir down 6.5%, Broadcom losing 4.3%, and Oracle sliding more than 4%. The sector’s rapid gains this year have drawn comparisons with the dot-com boom, prompting questions about the sustainability of current valuations.

Asian markets also reflected the cautious mood. China reported factory output growth at 4.9% year-on-year in October, the slowest in 14 months and below expectations. Weakness in fixed-asset investment, especially in the property sector, added to concerns. South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.8%, with Samsung Electronics down 5.5% and SK Hynix off 8.5%. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 1.8%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost nearly 1.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2%. The Shanghai Composite declined 1%.

Oil prices rose, with Brent crude up 1.6% at $63.99 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbing 1.8% to $59.76. The dollar strengthened slightly against the yen at ¥154.55, while the euro traded at $1.1637.

Investors continue to weigh the risks of stretched valuations in technology against uncertain monetary policy, leaving markets cautious as they head into the final months of 2025.

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