Business
Euro Rises to Two-Month High Amid Tariff Delay and Ukraine Peace Talks
The euro surged to its highest level in nearly two months on Monday, bolstered by US President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs and his push for peace talks in Ukraine. However, analysts caution that the common currency’s rebound may be short-lived amid lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Euro Gains as Inflation Concerns Ease
The EUR/USD pair climbed to nearly 1.05 in the early Asian trading session, reaching levels last seen on December 18 and briefly touched again in late January. The euro’s rally is largely attributed to Trump’s unexpected tariff delay and renewed optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
Market sentiment improved last week after Trump announced a delay in his proposed reciprocal tariffs, a move that eased concerns over inflationary pressures. While the US president has frequently used tariff threats as a negotiation tool, he has so far only implemented a 10% levy on Chinese goods, leaving markets hopeful that further duties might be scaled back or scrapped.
Adding to the optimism, crude oil prices dropped sharply following Trump’s phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The discussion, which Trump described as “lengthy and highly productive”, fueled speculation that negotiations might include easing restrictions on Russian oil exports. If that were to happen, inflationary pressures could subside further, strengthening the euro while weakening the US dollar.
The improved outlook for European markets has led traders to favor the euro and British pound, according to Michael McCarthy, Chief Commercial Officer at Moomoo Australia. “Markets are seeing this as a ‘double win’ trade—peace prospects in Ukraine are boosting sentiment toward the European economy, while waning post-election optimism in the US is pulling the dollar down,” he said.
Concerns Over Sustainability of Euro’s Rally
Despite the temporary boost, market analysts warn that the euro’s gains could be short-lived as both Trump’s tariff policy and Ukraine peace negotiations remain highly uncertain.
Just days after announcing the tariff delay, Trump revealed plans to introduce new levies on automobiles starting April 2, targeting key US trading partners—particularly the European Union. The sweeping reciprocal tariffs remain under review by the US Commerce Department, with a final decision expected by April 1. Should these tariffs be implemented aggressively, they could undermine confidence in the euro and push the currency lower once again.
Similarly, while talks of a Ukraine peace deal have sparked optimism, the complexity of ceasefire negotiations means a resolution could take months, if not longer. A key meeting in Paris on Monday, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, will see EU leaders—including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—discuss a joint military defense spending package. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is also expected to participate, aiming to strengthen European defense capabilities in post-war Ukraine.
However, Trump has insisted that the EU take greater responsibility for its own security, which could pressure European governments to increase military spending—potentially leading to higher debt levels that could weigh on the euro.
Upcoming German Elections Add to Uncertainty
Another looming factor that could impact the euro is Germany’s snap elections, set to take place in less than a week. Political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy has historically pressured the euro, and a volatile election outcome could further weaken investor confidence in the currency.
Despite the euro’s current strength, some analysts remain bullish on the US dollar, pointing to America’s strong economic performance compared to Europe’s fragile recovery.
“My stance remains bullish USD,” wrote Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London, in a client note. “Ongoing US economic outperformance should see both the dollar and US stocks continue to climb, albeit in a volatile manner,” he added.
With tariff decisions pending, geopolitical tensions still unresolved, and European economic challenges persisting, the euro’s rally may struggle to hold in the coming weeks.
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