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China Imposes Retaliatory Tariffs on Canadian Goods Amid Escalating Trade War

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China has announced retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural and seafood products, intensifying trade tensions between the two nations. The move, revealed on Saturday, comes in response to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and metals imposed in October last year.

Beijing will enforce 100% tariffs on rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, along with a 25% import levy on pork and aquatic products from March 20, further straining economic ties between the two countries.

Tit-for-Tat Tariffs Escalate Trade Conflict

The trade dispute between China and Canada has been growing since October 2023, when Ottawa imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and 25% levies on Chinese steel and aluminum.

China’s Ministry of Commerce condemned Canada’s measures as violations of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, calling them “acts of protectionism” that restrict Chinese exports and damage the country’s legitimate trade interests.

Impact on Canadian Exports

Canada’s rapeseed (canola) industry is expected to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs. In 2023, the crop generated C$13.6 billion (€8.73 billion) in sales, while Canadian canola meal and oil exports to China were valued at C$920.9 million (€591.3 million) and C$21 million (€13.5 million) respectively in 2024.

Additionally, Canada’s pea exports to China reached C$303 million (€194.5 million) last year. The new tariffs could severely disrupt trade flows, affecting Canadian farmers and exporters who rely on the Chinese market.

The Canadian Global Affairs Ministry denounced China’s tariff announcement as “unjustified”, stating that Canada rejects China’s findings and remains open to dialogue. The ministry accused China of unfair market practices, saying that its policies artificially lower production costs and distort global markets.

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Wider Global Trade War Intensifies

China’s latest trade action follows a string of tariff hikes introduced by former US President Donald Trump last week, which included 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican imports and a doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%.

Shortly after, Trump granted a one-month exemption on auto and agricultural tariffs for Canada and Mexico under the USMCA agreement, as both countries signaled a willingness to reassess tariffs on Chinese imports.

China’s Economic Struggles Deepen

The trade war escalation comes amid economic uncertainty in China, with consumer prices falling 0.7% year-over-year in February, marking the first negative inflation rate in 13 months.

At its annual government meeting last week, Beijing set its 2025 GDP growth target at 5% and unveiled a trillions-of-yuan stimulus package to boost economic activity. However, analysts warn that sluggish domestic demand and mounting trade tensions could make achieving this target difficult.

To support economic recovery, China has pledged a “proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy”, increasing its budget deficit to 4% of GDP—the highest in three decades.

Market Reaction and Currency Decline

Financial markets reacted negatively to the ongoing trade tensions. On Monday, the Chinese Yuan fell 0.22% against the US dollar, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.7% in early trading.

Despite the recent downturn, Chinese markets have been rallying this year, partly fueled by the January launch of DeepSeek’s AI model, a Chinese tech startup competing with US AI firms.

As global trade disputes intensify, China and Canada remain locked in a growing economic standoff with potential long-term impacts on international commerce and investment flows.

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FII Summit in Rome Calls for Faster Reforms to Boost Europe’s Investment Appeal

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The discussions highlighted what participants described as a critical opportunity for Europe to reinforce its strategic autonomy and position itself as a leading destination for global investment. However, speakers warned that without faster reforms and reduced administrative barriers, the region risks falling behind the United States and rapidly advancing Asian economies.

Unlike the recent G7 discussions, which focused heavily on geopolitical tensions and security issues, the Rome summit placed economic transformation at the centre of attention. The FII Priority Europe event brought together policymakers and investors to examine how the continent can regain momentum and secure funding for industrial and technological development.

Richard Attias, chairman of the executive committee of the FII Institute, told delegates that Europe retains strong fundamentals, including skilled labour, innovation capacity and established industrial infrastructure. However, he said investors increasingly demand predictability, speed and clarity in decision-making processes.

Attias called for streamlined regulations and simplified administrative systems to improve capital flows into key sectors such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, renewable energy and advanced manufacturing. He also noted that Europe is competing not only with the United States but also with emerging economies that are rapidly adjusting their regulatory frameworks to attract investment.

He stressed that the challenge lies in maintaining European standards while ensuring that regulatory systems do not slow economic progress. According to him, global capital is moving quickly, and Europe must adapt if it wants to remain a leading investment destination.

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The issue of long-term investment in Europe was also addressed by Yasir O. Al Rumayyan, governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and chairman of energy giant Aramco. He said Europe stands at a defining moment in shaping its role in the evolving global economy and emphasized the importance of creating conditions that support large-scale, long-term investment.

Al Rumayyan pointed to opportunities in areas such as energy transition projects, technological innovation and strategic infrastructure development. His remarks carried significant weight, given that the Public Investment Fund manages assets worth about $1.15 trillion, while Aramco remains one of the world’s most profitable energy companies.

Organisers said the choice of Rome as the summit venue reflected Europe’s potential to combine historical influence with forward-looking reform ambitions. The message repeated throughout the event was that while Europe continues to attract strong investor interest, its ability to convert that interest into sustained economic growth will depend on how quickly it modernizes its regulatory environment and accelerates structural reforms.

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Oil Prices Slide as US–Iran Accord Eases Supply Fears While Markets React to Fed Policy Shift

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Global crude prices extended losses on Thursday after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending their conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments. Equity markets also responded unevenly as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals.

Oil benchmarks dropped in early trading following confirmation that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had signed an initial agreement designed to halt hostilities and restore normal maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway handles a significant share of global crude exports, and expectations of its reopening immediately weighed on prices.

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3% to around $75 a barrel, while Brent crude slipped about 2% to $78 a barrel. Although both benchmarks remain above pre-conflict levels near $70, they have retreated sharply from recent highs above $100 recorded during the height of the tensions.

The agreement sets a 60-day period for negotiations on a final settlement addressing Iran’s nuclear programme. In the interim, Tehran has agreed to reduce its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The deal also includes provisions for easing sanctions, allowing Iran to resume oil exports and enabling tanker traffic to move more freely through the Persian Gulf.

US officials have indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could be fully reopened by Friday without transit fees, a development that has reinforced expectations of increased global supply. President Trump, commenting after the signing, said “oil down, stocks up,” reflecting market reactions to the accord.

Despite the easing outlook, the International Energy Agency has warned that global oil markets remain fragile. Strategic reserves in advanced economies have fallen to their lowest levels since 1990, with OECD stockpiles declining by more than 160 million barrels since the conflict began. The agency also revised down its demand forecast, citing weaker consumption and elevated fuel prices.

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Flows through the Strait of Hormuz had already begun recovering before the agreement, reaching roughly 12 million barrels per day in early June after a period of disruption.

Financial markets, meanwhile, delivered a mixed performance following the Federal Reserve’s latest projections. Wall Street fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Dow Jones off 1%, and the Nasdaq losing 1.3%, after policymakers signalled the possibility of interest rate increases later this year.

In his first press conference as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh avoided committing to a clear policy path, signalling a shift in how the central bank communicates future decisions. US President Donald Trump, attending the G7 summit in France, described the situation as “whatever,” while acknowledging uncertainty over potential rate hikes.

Early trading on Thursday pointed to a rebound, with US futures higher and Asian equities advancing on optimism over easing geopolitical risks. European markets opened more cautiously, reflecting lingering uncertainty despite the improving energy outlook.

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Kevin Warsh Begins Fed Tenure as Markets Watch for Clues on Future Rate Path

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The US Federal Reserve enters a new phase on Wednesday as Kevin Warsh presides over his first policy meeting as chair, marking a closely watched leadership transition in American monetary policy. While economists broadly expect interest rates to remain unchanged, investors are focused on signals that could define the central bank’s direction under new leadership.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% range, extending a steady policy stance for a fourth consecutive meeting. The last adjustment came in December 2025, when rates were reduced by 25 basis points.

Although no immediate policy shift is anticipated, attention is centred on the language of the Fed’s statement and Chair Warsh’s first press conference. Analysts say even subtle changes in wording could indicate whether policymakers are leaning toward holding rates higher for longer or considering future increases if inflation remains persistent.

Warsh assumes leadership during a more complex economic environment than when he was previously associated with calls for lower interest rates. At that time, he aligned with arguments suggesting artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains could help ease inflation pressures. However, economists now point to continued inflationary risks tied to investment cycles in technology sectors, which have contributed to demand pressures across the economy.

Inflation has risen since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in February, reaching 4.2%, its highest level in three years, largely driven by higher energy costs. Although a US-backed framework for a peace deal has been announced, uncertainty remains over its durability, and analysts warn that any relief in fuel prices could take months to filter through to broader inflation measures.

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The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has remained above its 2% target for more than five years. At the same time, the labour market continues to show resilience, with 172,000 jobs added in May, marking the third consecutive month of solid employment growth. This stability has reduced pressure for further rate cuts that were previously projected earlier in the year.

Because interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, market attention has shifted to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and the “dot plot”, which outlines policymakers’ expectations for future rate movements. Some economists, including those at Bank of America, anticipate that the projections may indicate no rate cuts through 2026, with a minority of officials even signalling potential rate increases.

Communication strategy is also expected to be a key focus under Warsh. He has previously argued that the Fed should reduce the frequency of public commentary to avoid constraining policy flexibility. One possible change could involve returning to fewer press conferences, a model last used under former Chair Ben Bernanke.

However, analysts caution that reduced communication could unsettle financial markets that have grown reliant on clear forward guidance from the central bank.

Adding to the complexity, former chair Jerome Powell remains on the Fed’s board as a governor and is expected to participate in Wednesday’s vote, maintaining influence over policy decisions during the transition period.

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