Business
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 4% Amid Persistent Inflation
The Bank of England (BoE) has kept its main interest rate unchanged at 4%, as inflation in the UK continues to run well above the central bank’s 2% target.
The decision, announced on Thursday, was widely expected by markets. Of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), seven voted to hold the rate steady, while two pushed for a 0.25 percentage point cut to 3.75%.
“Markets were pricing in a 98% likelihood that rates would stay at 4.0%, because so far, we are not seeing enough progress in bringing inflation down to give room for manoeuvre on rates,” said Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed inflation at 3.8% in the year to August, nearly double the BoE’s target. The data also revealed slowing wage growth and stagnant GDP in July, heightening concerns about weak economic momentum.
The BoE’s decision followed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move on Wednesday to cut key interest rates, which some analysts said could support the pound and reduce the cost of imports. “This is good for consumers, but investors may see difficult conditions continuing, particularly for tech and property firms,” said Nick Saunders, CEO of stock trading platform Webull UK. “In the current environment, inflation risk is more pressing than lack of growth, and the Bank has to deal with this first.”
The Bank last lowered interest rates in August, after a series of reductions that began earlier this year. If the current pace of cuts continues, another adjustment could come in November. However, economists remain divided on whether a reduction is likely, given that inflation has proven stickier than anticipated, partly due to sustained wage pressures.
“The Bank will be watching employment and growth data closely for now, because it will worry about choking off growth if interest rates stay too high for too long, but for now, its hands look tied,” said Clayton.
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, noted that the MPC had previously signalled inflation would peak in September before easing back toward target levels. However, he warned markets may not see another rate cut until April 2025. “Whether or not the UK economy can wait until April before the next rate cut remains to be seen … for now, inflation is the big concern and appears to be an issue neither the BoE nor the government can tame,” he said.
With inflation stubbornly high and growth sluggish, the BoE faces a delicate balancing act in the months ahead, as markets turn their attention to the next policy meeting in November.
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