The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has agreed to raise crude oil production, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies.
The group announced on Sunday that it will increase output by 206,000 barrels per day in May following a virtual meeting of key producers. The countries involved in the decision include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
Despite the move, analysts say the increase is unlikely to significantly ease pressure on oil prices. The additional supply represents only a small fraction of the volumes affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has been severely constrained since the conflict began in late February.
In a statement, OPEC+ said the adjustment forms part of a broader plan to unwind voluntary production cuts introduced in recent years. The group added that it remains ready to adjust output depending on market conditions, including the possibility of pausing or reversing earlier decisions if necessary.
Market observers note that even the planned increase may have limited immediate impact, as logistical challenges linked to the strait’s closure continue to restrict exports. Oil shipments from several producing countries remain delayed or rerouted, tightening global supply.
Energy analyst Osama Rizvi said the scale of disruption across the market far outweighs the planned production increase. He pointed to widespread outages affecting energy infrastructure and ongoing difficulties in maintaining normal output levels. According to Rizvi, the additional barrels are unlikely to offset the supply losses caused by the conflict.
Oil prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks, with benchmark crude nearing $120 per barrel. The surge has pushed up fuel costs globally, adding strain on households and businesses already dealing with inflationary pressures.
Forecasts from major financial institutions suggest prices could rise even further if supply constraints persist. Some projections indicate that crude could approach $150 per barrel if disruptions continue into the coming weeks.
Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver of market uncertainty. US President Donald Trump has issued a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of potential military action against critical infrastructure if the route remains closed.
The standoff has raised concerns about the stability of global energy markets, as the strait typically handles a significant share of the world’s oil exports.
While OPEC+ has signalled its intention to support market stability, the effectiveness of its latest move will depend largely on developments in the region and whether normal shipping operations can resume.
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