A sudden threat by former US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs to seize Greenland sent Europe scrambling to protect the transatlantic alliance. For five tense days, Trump warned he would apply a 10% tariff on eight NATO member states unless Denmark agreed to sell the semi-autonomous, mineral-rich island.

“This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland,” Trump wrote on social media, prompting widespread condemnation from European leaders defending Denmark’s sovereignty.

EU ambassadors met the following day to prepare for 1 February, when the tariffs were set to take effect. France took the lead, calling for the use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows retaliation across multiple economic sectors. Previously designed for China, the mechanism had never been used, even amid Trump’s 2025 trade negotiations, which divided EU member states.

“Plunging us into a dangerous downward spiral would only aid the very adversaries we are both so committed to keeping out of our strategic landscape,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos. “So our response will be unflinching, united and proportional.”

European capitals quickly prepared for potential retaliation, drafting a €93 billion list of countermeasures. The European Parliament also voted to indefinitely delay the ratification of the EU-US trade deal, blocking zero-tariff benefits for American products agreed in July.

Despite this display of unity, European leaders emphasized diplomacy as their preferred path. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “We want to avoid any escalation in this dispute if at all possible. We simply want to try to resolve this problem together.” Finnish President Alexander Stubb described the effort as finding an “off-ramp” to prevent a full-blown clash while safeguarding Greenland.

Early diplomatic overtures faltered. Bilateral meetings with Trump at Davos failed to materialize, and leaks of texts, including one from French President Emmanuel Macron, highlighted the confusion. Trump’s statements at the World Economic Forum, in which he repeatedly referred to Greenland as “Iceland,” kept tensions high.

Yet his insistence that he did not plan to use military force opened a narrow window for negotiation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with Trump in Davos to establish a “framework deal” enhancing security in Greenland and the Arctic. The agreement, details of which remain confidential, prompted Trump to abandon his tariff threat and territorial ambitions.

By the time EU leaders convened in Brussels for an emergency summit, the atmosphere had eased. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen later traveled to Nuuk to ensure Denmark and Greenland were included in the discussions.

“Everybody has drawn the conclusion that the relationship is on a different footing,” a senior EU official said, acknowledging the long-term implications of Trump’s actions. Macron praised Europe’s display of unity, while von der Leyen warned the episode underscored the need for a more independent Europe with diverse international partnerships.

While the immediate crisis passed, the Greenland episode left a lasting mark on transatlantic relations and Europe’s approach to US unpredictability.

It is an expensive gamble, but also an attempt at technological emancipation from the major programmes of the past, in which Italy has often played a subordinate role. In the coming weeks, Italy’s parliament will decide whether to commit substantial resources to the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap), a joint effort with the United Kingdom and Japan to develop next-generation combat aircraft.

The aim of the Gcap is to create a sixth-generation air combat system by 2035, designed to gradually replace platforms such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Mitsubishi F-2. The system will operate in complex warfare environments, with a strong emphasis on interoperability with allied forces. According to Italy’s Defence Multi-Year Planning Document, the country’s contribution to the programme is estimated at around €9 billion through 2035, with more than €600 million allocated for 2025 alone. The cost does not include future expenses for production or the operational lifecycle of the aircraft.

The Gcap marks a potential shift in Italy’s defence strategy. Previous programmes, such as the Eurofighter and F-35, left the country largely dependent on stronger partners, with limited access to key technologies. In contrast, the Gcap grants Italy equal participation, with a 33.3 percent share alongside the UK and Japan, allowing for greater technological and industrial returns. Unlike the F-35, which involved significant U.S.-controlled “black boxes” restricting local involvement, the Gcap is structured to provide Italian industries and institutions greater operational sovereignty.

The programme merges the British Tempest and Japanese FX projects, and will initially operate alongside Italy’s Eurofighters and F-35s before gradually assuming full operational responsibilities. It will also incorporate uncrewed combat air systems (UCAS) and auxiliary technologies, enhancing Italy’s capabilities in drone integration and advanced communication networks.

Experts highlight the programme’s strategic importance. “We need to equip ourselves looking ahead to the next 10, 20, 30 years to maintain deterrence against Russia and contain Chinese assertiveness,” said Alessandro Marrone, head of the Defence, Security and Space programme at the Istituto Affari Internazionali.

Despite strong political and industrial support, the Gcap faces challenges. High levels of classified information, supply chain integration across large industrial groups, SMEs, and start-ups, and the need for a steady pipeline of skilled engineers all present potential obstacles. Delays or fragmented funding could affect technology development and industrial returns, while international cooperation depends on clear export and component exchange rules.

The programme’s first phase, financed with €3.85 billion through 2026, focuses on developing and testing key technologies. The next phase, costing around €4.5 billion, will produce a demonstrator aircraft, with entry into service planned around 2040.

If approved, the Gcap could secure Italy a prominent role in the next generation of global combat aviation, marking a decisive step toward greater autonomy and technological leadership in defence.

Europe has raised its security alert following a series of drone incursions into NATO airspace, prompting leaders to agree on developing a “drone wall” to better detect, track, and intercept unauthorized unmanned aircraft.

Finland is among the countries closely monitoring the situation, with the head of its military intelligence warning of a rising risk of drones drifting into Finnish territory as a consequence of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Major General Pekka Turunen, chief of Finnish Defence Intelligence, spoke to AFP ahead of the release of a new Finnish military intelligence report that updates the security situation in the country, which shares a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia. The report highlighted the risk of long-range drones inadvertently entering Finnish airspace.

“The risk of a drone drifting into Finnish airspace or onto Finnish territory is growing all the time, the more Ukraine strikes in this area near the Gulf of Finland,” Turunen said. He added that Ukraine has been targeting oil ports near the Finnish border and that Russian forces have been using GPS jamming to counter these attacks. This, Turunen warned, could inadvertently divert drones into Finnish territory. No such incidents have been reported so far.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland’s security landscape has changed dramatically. The country ended decades of military non-alignment and became a NATO member in April 2023. Despite the heightened alert, Turunen noted that the overall military threat to Finland had not increased compared to a year ago.

He also commented on broader geopolitical developments, noting that political events such as former US President Donald Trump’s controversial push to acquire Greenland may have signaled to Russia that NATO and Europe were politically fragmented. “Russia sees this political climate as a sign that the West, NATO, and Europe are in disarray, on the brink of collapse,” Turunen said.

The NATO alliance has intensified its efforts to counter drone threats. In September, drone flyovers into NATO airspace reached unprecedented levels, prompting European nations to propose a coordinated “drone wall” to secure borders. In November, NATO announced the deployment of a new US anti-drone system to its eastern flank. Following a violation of Polish airspace, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte unveiled the Eastern Sentry programme, designed to deter further incursions and enhance the alliance’s readiness.

Some European officials have suggested that these drone incidents may be testing NATO’s response capabilities, raising concerns about preparedness against potential Russian threats. The Kremlin has dismissed allegations of involvement in the unidentified drone flights as “unfounded.”

The rise in drone activity has underscored the need for strengthened airspace monitoring and multinational coordination across NATO members, as tensions in Eastern Europe remain high and security risks continue to evolve.