Business

Turkish Central Bank Holds Interest Rate Steady at 50 Percent Amid Inflation Concerns

Published

6 months ago

May 26, 2024

Ankara, Turkey — The Turkish Central Bank has maintained its key interest rate at 50 percent for the second consecutive month, signaling its commitment to managing inflationary pressures. Here are the key points from the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision:

Interest Rate Unchanged

Steady Stance: The policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) remains fixed at 50 percent.
Inflation Watch: The central bank emphasizes that the monetary policy stance will be tightened if inflation persists.

Inflation Outlook

Finance Minister’s Confirmation: Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek anticipates a decline in inflation after reaching its peak in May.
Summer Decline: Inflation is expected to decrease rapidly during the summer months.

Three-Year Plan to Control Inflation

Government Measures: Last week, the Turkish government unveiled a three-year plan aimed at reducing public spending to curb inflation.
April Surge: Inflation surged to 70 percent on an annual basis in April.

Turkish Central Bank

Economist Insights

Liam Peach’s View: Senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, Liam Peach, expects rate cuts by year-end.
Softening Pressures: Encouraging signs in April suggest that price pressures are softening.
Peak Projection: Inflation may peak around 75 percent year-on-year in May.

Central Bank’s Confidence

Year-End Target: The central bank remains confident that inflation will end the year at 38 percent.
Balancing Act: Achieving this requires a slowdown in monthly price inflation and a pause in interest rates.

Future Rate Cuts

Economic Strength: Despite robust economic activity, rate cuts are not imminent.
Upside Risks: Analysts anticipate rate cuts in Q4, but the central bank may wait until next year.

Turkey’s central bank navigates the delicate balance between inflation control and economic growth, with a cautious eye on the evolving global landscape.

Business

Lithuania Emerges as a Leading Fintech and Startup Hub in Europe

Published

3 hours ago

November 24, 2024

RTX

Lithuania is rapidly positioning itself as one of Europe’s top hubs for startups and financial technology (fintech), boasting a thriving ecosystem that has attracted global attention. Home to unicorns like Vinted and Nord Security, the Baltic nation is also nurturing a range of promising “soonicorns” poised to join the billion-dollar club.

A Rising Star in the Baltics

With a population of just 2.8 million, Lithuania is small compared to larger European nations. Yet, its startup ecosystem is thriving, outperforming its regional counterparts. According to the Lithuanian Startup Ecosystem 2023 report, the country’s startups were the fastest-growing in the Baltics last year. Between 2018 and 2023, Lithuania’s startup enterprise value surged 7.1 times, significantly outpacing the Baltic average of 2.7x and the 3.6x growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

Lithuania also ranked second in the CEE region for venture capital funding in 2023, securing €292 million. Notable soonicorns like Argyle, CityBee, and PVcase, valued between €200 million and €1 billion, highlight the country’s upward trajectory. Smaller but rapidly growing startups such as Affise, Whatagraph, and BitDegree are also making their mark.

The capital city, Vilnius, is a fintech hotspot, hosting over 170 startups valued at approximately €1.8 billion in 2023. In just 18 months leading up to February 2024, these companies raised €228 million in venture capital. Prominent names include Amlyze, Kevin, TransferGo, and HeavyFinance, which span industries such as payments, regulatory technology, and cryptocurrency.

Why Lithuania?

Employee well-being: Lithuania’s emphasis on work-life balance, mental health, and a vibrant work environment has made it particularly appealing to younger workers who dominate fintech sectors. The country recently topped the 2024 World Happiness Report for people under 30. Modern office designs and collaborative setups further enhance employee engagement.

Government initiatives: Organizations like Startup Lithuania, Invest Lithuania, and Vilnius Techfusion provide startups with invaluable support through acceleration programs, workshops, consultations, and relocation assistance. These initiatives connect startups with founders, investors, and tech specialists, fostering a collaborative ecosystem.

Ease of business: Ranked fifth globally for tax competitiveness and eighth for remote work, Lithuania offers an investor-friendly environment. Vilnius, known for its high-speed internet and robust online security, was named the most business-friendly city in Emerging Europe, making it a prime choice for tech-driven companies.

Lithuania’s strategic policies, talent pool, and tech-friendly infrastructure are solidifying its reputation as a fintech powerhouse, drawing investors and startups to its dynamic and rapidly growing ecosystem.

Business

Europe Faces Rising Gas Prices, Uncertainty Ahead of Winter Energy Demands

Published

1 day ago

November 23, 2024

RTX

Europe’s energy markets are bracing for a challenging winter as natural gas prices surge, driven by increased demand and supply uncertainties. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s benchmark for natural gas prices, recently hit a one-year high, reflecting growing concerns over supply shortfalls and geopolitical tensions.

Storage Levels Strong but Under Pressure

Despite early preparations, Europe’s gas storage reserves are facing significant withdrawals due to colder-than-expected weather. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that the first two weeks of November saw storage levels drop by nearly 4% (4.29 bcm). Current reserves remain robust at 95% capacity, surpassing the EU’s targets, but experts warn of depletion risks.

Dr. Yousef Alshammari, President of the London College of Energy Economics, noted that Europe’s gas reserves may fall below 50% by spring 2025, compared to 60% at the end of the previous winter. “Colder weather and increased heating demand will likely keep prices elevated compared to last year’s relatively mild winter,” Alshammari told Euronews Business.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Risks

The geopolitical landscape continues to weigh heavily on energy markets. Gazprom’s recent suspension of natural gas supplies to Austria over a bilateral dispute, coupled with the imminent expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement in January 2025, has heightened concerns about supply disruptions.

The end of the pipeline agreement could remove half of Russia’s remaining gas exports to Europe, exacerbating supply challenges during peak demand. “Any further disruption could force Europe to revert to coal and oil for power generation, which would have broader implications for energy markets,” said Alshammari.

Alshammari also highlighted that political dynamics, particularly the transition to a new U.S. administration, may influence energy prices. He cautioned that further tensions could amplify price volatility for both natural gas and oil.

Renewables and Energy Efficiency Mitigate Some Pressure

Renewable energy’s share of Europe’s electricity production reached 44.7% in 2024, up 12.4% from 2022, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Improved energy efficiency and diversification have also helped mitigate demand for natural gas, which fell from 350 bcm in 2022 to 295 bcm in 2024.

However, Alshammari cautioned that renewables alone cannot resolve Europe’s energy challenges. “Countries with strong hydropower capabilities, like Norway and Iceland, are better positioned to avoid price spikes, but a diversified mix, including nuclear energy, is essential,” he said.

With increased reliance on LNG imports and the potential for heightened demand, Europe faces a delicate balancing act to maintain energy security while transitioning to a more sustainable energy future.

Business

European Natural Gas Prices Surge Amid Cold Snap and Geopolitical Risks

Published

1 day ago

November 23, 2024

RTX

European natural gas prices surged in November, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark rising 16% to €46 per megawatt-hour (MWh), reflecting heightened demand and supply-side concerns. The increase marks a sharp recovery from February lows of under €25/MWh and signals renewed volatility in Europe’s energy markets.

Cold Weather and Geopolitical Strains Intensify Supply Concerns

Unseasonably cold weather across the Northern Hemisphere has driven up heating demand. Sub-zero temperatures in northwest Europe and the U.S. Northeast have tightened energy markets, according to Quantum Commodity Intelligence. Simultaneously, declining wind energy generation has reduced renewable power output, pushing utilities to rely on gas-fired plants.

The combination of increased demand and reduced renewable energy output has strained Europe’s gas storage levels, which have dipped below 90% for the first time in 2023. Although storage remains above critical thresholds, concerns about shortages have added a geopolitical risk premium to TTF prices.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbates market uncertainty. Last week, Gazprom unexpectedly halted supplies to Austria, raising fears of broader disruptions. Additionally, the year-end expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement threatens a crucial supply route that accounts for 5% of Europe’s gas needs. Without a new deal, countries in Eastern and Central Europe could face severe shortages during winter.

Goldman Sachs Warns of Further Price Spikes

Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 TTF price forecast upward to €40/MWh, citing increased risks of supply disruptions and higher demand. The bank predicts heating demand could rise by 46 million cubic meters daily compared to last winter, potentially leaving storage levels at just 40% capacity by March 2025.

In a worst-case scenario involving prolonged LNG supply delays, stronger-than-expected Asian demand, or colder-than-average weather, prices could spike to €77/MWh, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart. Such levels would force some industries to switch from gas to oil-based fuels.

Conversely, a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit dispute could stabilize prices around €37/MWh, the bank noted.

Economic and Policy Implications

The renewed price surge raises concerns about its economic impact, with higher energy costs threatening household budgets and industrial competitiveness. Energy-intensive sectors in Europe may struggle to compete with counterparts in regions with cheaper energy, while inflationary pressures could hinder economic recovery.

Policymakers may face growing calls to subsidize energy costs or accelerate investments in renewable energy to mitigate reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets.

Despite the current surge, European gas prices remain well below the record highs of nearly €350/MWh during the 2022 energy crisis, highlighting the progress made in stabilizing supply but underscoring the lingering vulnerabilities in the energy market.