Business
Eurozone Confidence Slips as France’s Political Turmoil Clouds Outlook
Economic confidence in the eurozone fell again in August, reflecting weak sentiment across key sectors and major economies, while political uncertainty in France threatens to intensify pressure on regional markets.
The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), released on Thursday, showed a decline of 0.5 points to 95.2 in the euro area, with the broader European Union slipping 0.3 points to 94.9. Both readings remain well below the long-term average of 100, highlighting persistent fragility in the region’s economic recovery.
The latest downturn was broad-based, with industry, services, construction and consumer confidence all edging lower. Only retail trade managed a modest improvement. Among major economies, Spain posted the sharpest drop, down 2.6 points, while Germany and Italy both fell by one point. By contrast, the Netherlands recorded a strong 3.5-point rise, and France held broadly steady.
The survey also underscored ongoing concerns about inflation. Consumer expectations for future price increases rose again, even as perceptions of recent inflation eased slightly. Business selling price expectations declined in industry and retail, and held steady in construction, but the services sector recorded a second consecutive monthly rise.
Uncertainty remains high. The Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell slightly to 16.9, with businesses in services, retail and industry expressing more confidence about future conditions, though consumers and construction firms reported greater anxiety over household finances. On the labour front, there were signs of resilience: the Employment Expectations Indicator ticked up by 0.3 points to 97.8, supported by stronger hiring plans in industry, retail and construction.
While France’s confidence reading showed little change, the survey was completed before the escalation of a political crisis in Paris. Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a no-confidence vote on 8 September, after opposition parties pledged to vote against the government. Economists warn that a collapse could send fresh shockwaves through eurozone markets.
Sonia Renoult, fixed income strategist at ABN Amro, described Bayrou’s move as “un coup de poker” — a high-stakes gamble — arguing that the outcome may determine whether France maintains fiscal stability or faces deeper political paralysis.
Investors are already reacting. The OAT-Bund spread, a key gauge of political risk that tracks the yield gap between French and German 10-year government bonds, has widened to 79 basis points, up from 70 last week. Analysts expect it to remain elevated ahead of the vote, with the potential to surge if fresh elections are called.
Should President Emmanuel Macron appoint a new prime minister without dissolving parliament, markets could stabilize. But new elections could trigger renewed volatility, potentially pushing spreads above the levels seen during June’s snap polls.
With economic sentiment faltering and political tensions mounting, policymakers across the eurozone face mounting pressure to restore confidence in the months ahead.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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