Business
Middle East Tensions Spark Fears of Energy Crisis in Europe as LNG Supplies Face Disruption
Mounting tensions in the Middle East have raised alarms across global energy markets, with fears growing that vital natural gas fields could become targets in the ongoing conflict. As the Israel-Iran confrontation deepens, analysts warn that Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply — and broader economic stability — could be at risk.
Since Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites on June 13, global oil prices have surged more than 10%, triggering fresh concerns about inflation and supply disruptions. The World Bank has already downgraded global economic growth to 2.3% for 2025, with energy instability now compounding trade tensions caused by new U.S. tariffs.
Markets are increasingly pricing in the threat of supply constraints, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow but crucial maritime chokepoint through which one-third of global oil and one-fifth of LNG shipments pass. While Iran has not closed the strait, its control of the area and the growing military risks have caused several shipping companies to reroute or cancel trips altogether.
“The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to close,” said Dr. Yousef Alshammari, President of the London College of Energy Economics, in an interview with Euronews. “Iran depends on it to export to key clients like China and India.” Still, he noted that heightened risk has already driven up costs, with tankers avoiding the route and insurers raising premiums. Qatar, one of the largest LNG exporters globally, has reportedly delayed shipments due to the situation.
Europe, which remains dependent on global LNG amid efforts to move away from Russian gas, is feeling the pressure. Gas prices in the region surged to a three-month high on Friday, with the Dutch TTF benchmark nearing €41 per megawatt-hour. Though current inventories are stable, the EU’s exposure to Qatar — which provides about 10% of its LNG — leaves countries like Belgium, Italy, and Poland particularly vulnerable.
Further strain is expected due to hotter-than-usual weather across Europe, increasing demand for cooling systems and energy. “Spikes in energy prices push up inflation and can influence central bank decisions,” said Alshammari. With the ECB and Bank of England already cautious on rate cuts, persistent inflation could result in prolonged tight monetary policies and suppressed growth.
The conflict is also threatening global oil dynamics. Iran, the world’s ninth-largest oil producer, exports about 1.5 million barrels per day — primarily to China, which depends on Iran for around 10% of its imports. Any disruption could force Beijing to seek alternative suppliers at higher costs, with ripple effects across global prices.
For Europe’s manufacturing sector, already battered by high input costs and rising trade tensions, the energy shock could prove severe. “It’s like playing four-dimensional chess,” said Marco Forgione, Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade. He warned of potential consumer price hikes, supply shortages, and shrinkflation if fuel costs remain elevated.
While a full-scale closure of energy routes remains unlikely, markets are on edge, and experts caution that a broader conflict involving European powers could further destabilize the global economy.
“This is the scenario nobody wants to see happen,” Alshammari said.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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