Business
Global House Prices Set to Rise Amid Supply Shortages and Growing Demand: Fitch Report
House prices are expected to climb globally over the next two years, with construction unable to keep pace with surging demand in most countries, according to Fitch Ratings’ 2025 housing and mortgage outlook.
The report forecasts nominal home price growth in the low to mid-single digits for many countries, driven by factors such as low unemployment, real wage growth, and declining inflation, which have bolstered household disposable incomes.
Regional Highlights
- Europe:
- In the eurozone, rising real household income is fueling demand and driving up prices. Exceptions include France, where prices are projected to decline due to strained affordability and political uncertainties, though a recovery may begin in 2026.
- The Netherlands is expected to see rapid price growth, albeit slower than the current year’s 13%, with rates between 8% and 10% in 2025. Limited supply, coupled with government programs supporting first-time buyers, will sustain high demand despite tighter fiscal policies.
- Germany and Spain are forecasted to experience accelerated price increases. Spain could see costs rise by 4% to 6% in 2025, driven by falling interest rates and robust consumer confidence, while Germany’s growth is expected to range from 2% to 4%.
- The UK anticipates modest growth of 2% to 4%, supported by lower mortgage rates and a strong labor market. Italy, however, may see smaller increases of 0.5% to 2.5% due to high mortgage rates and a focus on older properties rather than new builds.
- North America and Latin America:
- In Canada, price growth will benefit from government programs for first-time buyers, while Brazil and Mexico will see increases driven by rising wages and construction costs.
- Asia-Pacific:
- China stands out as one of the few countries where prices remain subdued, reflecting its unique economic conditions and housing market challenges.
Challenges to Supply and Demand
Fitch highlights several factors limiting housing supply, including high land, labor, and material costs, as well as regulatory constraints. Smaller builders face difficulties accessing financing due to elevated borrowing rates.
Demand, meanwhile, continues to grow, fueled by declining mortgage rates, stable unemployment, and increased household formation. Energy-efficient homes are in particularly high demand, driven by sustainability concerns and rising energy costs.
Risks and Uncertainties
Climate risks, such as flooding, could impact housing prices, especially in vulnerable areas. Additionally, potential shifts in central bank policies or unexpected economic downturns could alter price trends.
Fitch notes that lower-than-expected mortgage rates or stronger economic performance could accelerate price growth, while higher unemployment or renewed inflation could dampen demand and affordability.
With the housing market facing a mix of opportunities and challenges, the global outlook remains cautiously optimistic for 2025 and beyond.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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