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European Markets Show Resilience Amid Volatility and Rising Credit Spreads

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Credit spreads across Europe have widened in recent weeks, but analysts say they remain only at their five-year historical average levels — far from the extremes seen during the COVID-19 pandemic or following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Despite a period of notable volatility not seen in some time, European markets are holding up well, according to financial analyst Gordon Kerr. Since the beginning of the year, European stock markets have outperformed U.S. equities, with investors attracted by their relative value compared to the more highly priced U.S. market.

Government spending on defence and infrastructure is expected to bolster growth further across the continent. Although surveys suggest European consumers have some concerns about economic confidence, actual behavior has demonstrated resilience. High household savings rates and stable employment levels have provided a buffer against inflation and elevated interest rates.

Another potential boost for European growth could come from the European Commission’s planned Savings and Investment Union, which aims to better channel household savings into supporting the expansion of European businesses. In addition, calls continue for the Commission to accelerate internal reforms to reduce barriers to trade and simplify regulation across the bloc.

Meanwhile, global market volatility has been exacerbated by U.S. efforts to reshape the international trading environment, including proposed tariffs that unsettled financial markets. Although a temporary pause has been announced, allowing time for negotiation and adjustment, the threat still lingers. Analysts warn that sectors such as automotive and pharmaceuticals — key European exporters to the U.S. — could face headwinds if tariffs are implemented.

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Credit markets are showing signs of cautious concern. While spreads have widened, they are far from crisis levels. Strong corporate balance sheets, healthier bank positions, and relatively low default rates are helping to stabilize the situation. According to KBRA DLD’s European Index, the private credit default rate is expected to remain low at around 1.25% in 2025.

Still, much depends on how governments and companies respond to emerging challenges. “There are many unanswered questions that could still impact firms differently,” Kerr said, noting that investors must carefully filter through the current noise to focus on fundamentals.

As uncertainty persists, market watchers are keeping a close eye on developments, waiting to assess the full impact of trade tensions and evolving economic policies.

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UK Housing Boom Intensifies Role of Parental Wealth in Young Adults’ Opportunities

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A new report from the UK’s Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that rising house prices have made parental property wealth a key determinant of opportunity for younger generations. The study finds that family wealth increasingly shapes where young adults live, the types of jobs they take, and their earnings potential.

While education and wages remain important, the report emphasizes that the ability of parents to support their children in accessing high-cost housing markets has become a major factor in life outcomes. Economists David Sturrock and Peter Levell, who co-authored the study, say Britain’s long-term house-price growth has strengthened the role of inherited wealth in shaping social mobility.

“Housing costs are a growing barrier to young people accessing high-productivity labour markets and an individual’s housing, location and career choices are increasingly determined by the amount of financial support they receive from family,” the report stated.

House prices have surged across the UK since the 1990s, particularly in London and the South East, while homeownership among young adults has fallen. Rising property values mean that children of wealthier parents can more easily afford deposits and move to high-cost areas, giving them access to better-paid jobs and professional networks.

The report highlights that living in London, Britain’s most expensive housing market, has become a privilege for those from wealthier families. For these young adults, moving to the capital can increase initial earnings by around 15%, rising to more than 50% over eight years, according to the study. By contrast, those from less wealthy backgrounds face barriers to entering the city and its high-earning labour market.

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Parental wealth also shapes career choices. Young people from affluent families are more likely to work in creative fields such as media, arts, fashion, and design in London, while those from less privileged backgrounds more often pursue science, engineering, and health roles outside the capital. The effects are especially pronounced for men, who are more likely to move into top-earning occupations with parental support. For women, the impact is more varied, with parental wealth slightly increasing the probability of leaving paid work or making smaller shifts in earnings.

The report quantifies the effect of parental property wealth, finding that a £100,000 increase in parents’ housing wealth translates to around £15,000 more in housing wealth for adult children between the ages of 28 and 37.

Researchers warn that the housing boom has not only entrenched inequality but accelerated the transfer of advantage between generations, reinforcing wealth persistence in the UK. As housing costs continue to rise, young adults without substantial family support face growing barriers to accessing high-earning jobs and achieving financial stability.

The study underscores how Britain’s property market has become a key mechanism for passing opportunity from one generation to the next, with housing wealth shaping life chances long after education and wages are considered.bu

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China’s Trade Surplus Hits Record $1.2 Trillion as Exports Outperform Expectations

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China’s trade surplus reached a record high of almost $1.2 trillion last year, government data showed Wednesday, as strong exports to global markets offset slowing sales to the United States.

According to customs authorities, China’s exports rose 5.5% in 2025 to $3.77 trillion, while imports remained largely flat at $2.58 trillion, producing a trade surplus of $992 billion. Exports surged in December, climbing 6.6% compared with the same month in 2024, exceeding economists’ forecasts and surpassing November’s 5.9% increase. Imports in December grew 5.7% year-on-year, up from 1.9% the previous month.

Economists say exports will remain a key driver of China’s economic growth this year despite trade frictions and geopolitical tensions. Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said, “We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026.”

Exports to the United States have fallen sharply since the start of former President Donald Trump’s trade policies, but China has made up the gap with strong sales to markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. Analysts point to robust global demand for computer chips, electronic devices, and the materials used to produce them as major contributors to export growth.

China’s strong trade performance helped its economy grow at a rate close to its official 5% annual target. Policymakers have focused on stimulating domestic consumption and business spending, including programs that offer subsidies to replace older appliances and vehicles with newer, energy-efficient models. However, these measures have had limited impact compared with export-driven growth.

Despite last year’s positive results, Beijing faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in 2026, according to Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration. He expressed confidence in the country’s trade outlook, saying China’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”

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In international developments, Brussels published new guidelines allowing Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers to submit minimum pricing offers, easing previously steep tariffs imposed in response to Beijing’s subsidy programs. The move could mark a significant step toward resolving the EU-China EV trade dispute. Under negotiations, Chinese producers have pledged to raise the prices of battery electric vehicles to create fairer competition with European manufacturers.

China remains the EU’s second-largest trading partner in goods after the United States. Analysts say continued demand for Chinese exports and potential progress in EU trade relations could support China’s trade and economic performance throughout 2026.

The record trade surplus underscores China’s resilience in global commerce, even as trade disputes and economic uncertainties pose ongoing challenges for policymakers.

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Ørsted Shares Rise After Court Clears Offshore Wind Project to Resume

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Shares in Danish energy firm Ørsted rose about 5 percent on Tuesday after a federal court in Washington granted a preliminary injunction allowing construction on the $5 billion Revolution Wind offshore project to resume. The project had been paused under directives issued during the Trump administration.

The US District Court for the District of Columbia issued the order, temporarily halting a 22 December stop-work directive from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the Interior Department agency responsible for offshore energy development. The ruling enables Ørsted and its partners to restart construction while the legal dispute over the pause continues.

“The court’s action will allow the Revolution Wind Project to restart impacted activities immediately while the underlying lawsuit progresses,” Ørsted said in a statement. The company added that it would work with the US administration to seek an “expeditious and durable resolution” and that safety remains the top priority as construction resumes.

The lawsuit challenges both the December suspension and an earlier director’s order issued on 22 August, which the developers argued unlawfully disrupted project work. Although the court has not yet ruled on the merits of the case, the injunction removes a major regulatory obstacle, allowing the developers to continue work while litigation proceeds.

Revolution Wind is a 50/50 joint venture between Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer, and Skyborn Renewables, part of Global Infrastructure Partners. The project is intended to supply affordable and reliable power to the US Northeast, a region increasingly relying on offshore wind to meet climate goals and strengthen grid resilience.

The ruling marks a setback for President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticized wind power and pledged to reduce federal support for renewable energy, citing environmental, economic, and permitting concerns. Several previously approved offshore wind projects have faced suspensions or heightened regulatory scrutiny under the current administration.

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Ørsted has faced challenges in the US market, including higher financing costs, supply chain pressures, and regulatory uncertainty, which have prompted the company to reassess parts of its North American portfolio. Despite these hurdles, Ørsted has consistently emphasized that offshore wind is essential to long-term decarbonization efforts and meeting growing electricity demand.

Analysts noted that the court decision could have wider implications for the offshore wind sector in the United States, setting a precedent for other projects navigating regulatory obstacles in a politically challenging environment. Investors have viewed Revolution Wind as a key test case for the future of offshore wind development under a more restrictive federal policy.

Construction on the project is expected to resume as soon as possible, signaling renewed momentum for offshore wind in the US and a potential boost to Ørsted’s North American ambitions.

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