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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.
The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.
Ceasefire Implementation and Violations
Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.
The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.
Challenges in Withdrawal
Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.
The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.
Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks
Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.
Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.
As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.
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Trump Weighs Troop Cuts in Spain and Italy Amid Growing Rift Over Iran War
President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is considering reducing the US military presence in Spain and Italy, widening a dispute with key NATO allies over their opposition to the ongoing war with Iran.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump suggested both countries had failed to adequately support Washington’s military campaign in the Middle East.
“Yeah, probably, I probably will. Why shouldn’t I?” Trump said when asked whether he would withdraw troops from the two countries. He added that Italy “has not been of any help” and described Spain as “absolutely horrible.”
The comments came just one day after Trump floated a similar proposal regarding Germany, following criticism from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict.
Trump has repeatedly argued that the US-led campaign against Iran serves the security interests of the entire Western alliance. He has expressed frustration that several NATO members have not provided stronger military or political backing, particularly in efforts to counter Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the latest Pentagon figures, the United States has about 36,000 troops stationed in Germany, roughly 12,600 in Italy and nearly 3,800 in Spain. While Trump did not specify the scale of any potential reductions, reports in US media suggest the cuts under consideration could be substantial.
Tensions with Italy have grown in recent weeks after Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly questioned the war. Trump, once a close ally of the Italian leader, accused her of lacking the courage to fully support the campaign.
Relations with Spain have been strained for longer. Disagreements initially emerged over Madrid’s stance on the war in Gaza and later expanded to include defence spending and NATO commitments. Spain has resisted Trump’s push for alliance members to raise defence spending to 5 per cent of gross domestic product.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said Spain will only increase military spending when it aligns with national interests. That position has drawn repeated criticism from Washington.
The Trump administration has previously threatened trade measures against Spain and has even raised the possibility of suspending the country from NATO. Reports last week indicated that such discussions have resurfaced amid Spain’s refusal to support the Iran campaign.
The diplomatic tensions come as the war enters its third month, with no clear end in sight. The conflict has disrupted global energy markets, especially after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude settled at around $114 a barrel on Friday, sharply higher than the roughly $70 level seen before the conflict began.
Trump’s latest remarks are likely to deepen divisions within NATO at a time when alliance unity is already under strain.
News
Trump Threatens Troop Reduction in Germany Amid Dispute With Chancellor Merz
US President Donald Trump has suggested that the United States could reduce its military presence in Germany, escalating tensions with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the handling of the conflict involving Iran.
In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said Washington was reviewing the possibility of withdrawing some American troops from Germany, with a decision expected soon. The announcement comes amid a growing public disagreement between the two leaders over US strategy in the Middle East.
“The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of troops in Germany,” Trump wrote, signalling that the longstanding American military footprint in Europe’s largest economy could once again be under scrutiny.
Germany hosts some of the most important US military facilities outside the United States, including Ramstein Air Base, the headquarters of US European Command and US Africa Command, and Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, the largest American military hospital abroad.
Trump’s latest warning follows comments by Merz earlier this week, in which the German leader said Washington was being “humiliated” by Iran and questioned the effectiveness of the US approach to the conflict. Merz has repeatedly called for a clearer strategy and a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.
Despite the sharp exchange, Merz said on Wednesday that his personal relationship with Trump remained strong. He added, however, that he had harboured concerns from the outset about the military campaign against Iran.
The two leaders met at the White House in March, shortly after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian targets. At the time, Merz said Germany was prepared to work closely with Washington on future regional strategy, while also warning that a prolonged conflict could inflict serious damage on the global economy.
That concern has intensified as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy markets. The vital waterway, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has remained effectively shut since fighting began in late February.
“We are suffering considerably in Germany and in Europe from the consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Merz said, urging all sides to seek a resolution.
Trump, however, has shown increasing frustration with Germany’s stance. In a post on Tuesday, he criticised Merz’s remarks on Iran and accused the chancellor of misunderstanding the threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
This is not the first time Trump has threatened to reduce US troop levels in Germany. During his first term, he announced plans to withdraw nearly 10,000 troops, citing Berlin’s defence spending. That proposal was later halted by the Biden administration.
Any renewed reduction would likely raise fresh questions about US commitment to NATO and European security at a time of heightened global instability.
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