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Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Holds Amid Violations
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered on November 27, has held for over a month despite repeated violations and slow progress on its terms. Analysts suggest the truce is likely to persist, offering relief to thousands displaced by the conflict, even as challenges remain ahead of the January deadline.
The agreement required Hezbollah to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw from the region, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers within 60 days. While Hezbollah has largely halted rocket attacks, Israel has withdrawn from only two of approximately 60 towns it occupies in southern Lebanon. Israeli forces continue targeted strikes, citing Hezbollah’s alleged attempts to move weapons and prepare rocket launches.
Ceasefire Implementation and Violations
Both sides have accused the other of violating the truce. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council, reporting 816 Israeli attacks between November 27 and December 22. Meanwhile, Israel alleges Hezbollah has committed hundreds of violations, including moving ammunition and launching rockets.
The ambiguity in the ceasefire terms has contributed to its durability, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The agreement’s flexibility allows it to adapt to changing circumstances,” he noted.
Challenges in Withdrawal
Israel’s withdrawal has been slower than expected, with military officials citing the lack of sufficient Lebanese forces to take over. Lebanon disputes this, arguing it is awaiting Israel’s withdrawal before deploying troops. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli spokesperson, emphasized security concerns as the priority.
The 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal is not seen as rigid. Experts, including Harel Chorev of Tel Aviv University, suggest Lebanon will need to mobilize significantly more troops before a full transfer can occur.
Hezbollah’s Position and Future Risks
Weakened by 14 months of conflict and the loss of key supply routes following the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah appears reluctant to resume hostilities. Its Secretary General, Naim Kassem, recently stated the group is refraining from action to allow the Lebanese state to enforce the agreement.
Despite this, former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni warned that if Israeli forces remain beyond the deadline, guerrilla-style attacks by Hezbollah or other groups could occur. Even if Israel withdraws ground troops, sporadic airstrikes may continue, similar to its operations in Syria.
As the ceasefire approaches its January deadline, its durability will depend on the ability of both sides to navigate the complex terms of the agreement and avoid further escalation.
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Chickenpox Outbreak Spreads Through Gaza Camps as Overcrowding and Vaccine Gaps Raise Alarm
A chickenpox outbreak is spreading rapidly through displacement camps in Gaza, with around 9,300 cases recorded across more than 130 health facilities in just two weeks.
Doctors and health workers say the actual number of infections is likely much higher because many patients are treated in tents or local clinics and never reach hospitals. The UN health cluster attributed the rise to severe overcrowding, high summer temperatures and worsening access to clean water.
More than half of the reported cases were recorded in Khan Younis governorate. Health teams also registered more than 18,000 new cases of infectious skin diseases across Gaza during the same week, including scabies, head lice and impetigo.
Isolation, which is recommended for children with chickenpox, is nearly impossible in many displacement camps. Families of six or more often live together in tents measuring only a few square metres, while in some locations multiple families share a single tent.
Hamada Abu Ghali, who is displaced in Nuseirat, said doctors told his daughter to stay apart from other family members after she was diagnosed with chickenpox. But the family had no space to follow the advice.
“Before the war we had a house and rooms, but today all of us are in one tent,” he said.
Ahmed Abu Hussein, displaced in Deir al-Balah, said children continued to play together because families could not keep them inside cramped shelters.
“We can’t control them or keep them inside the tent, so the infection ends up spreading to the whole family,” he said.
At Al-Rantisi Children’s Hospital, paediatric consultant Dr Sharif Mattar said official figures probably represented only a fraction of the outbreak. Many children are treated in displacement sites and primary healthcare centres, leaving their cases out of hospital statistics.
Nurse Sheimaa Hajji said health centres were seeing more children with widespread rashes. Treatment has largely focused on easing itching and preventing secondary bacterial infections, but supplies are running short.
The outbreak is being worsened by a vaccination crisis. Bassam Zaqout, director of Medical Relief in Gaza, said thousands of children born during the war had been unable to complete routine vaccination schedules. Restrictions on vaccine deliveries have also limited efforts to improve community protection.
Health officials have warned that chickenpox can pose additional risks to pregnant women, while maternity services in Gaza remain severely limited.
The World Health Organisation said the health system continues to operate with restricted capacity because of damaged facilities, shortages of medicines and a lack of medical staff.
UN field teams have also reported unsafe water supplies and sewage flowing around displacement sites.
The UN health cluster has increased the distribution of fever medicines, anti-itch treatments and antibiotics for bacterial complications. Health education teams have also been deployed.
Aid agencies warn that these efforts will not be enough without a major increase in medical supplies, clean water and hygiene materials reaching Gaza.
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