Health
Global Cancer Deaths Projected to Rise 75% by 2050, Lower-Income Countries Most at Risk
The global cancer burden is set to soar in the coming decades, with deaths projected to increase by nearly 75 percent by 2050 despite major medical advances, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The study forecasts that 18.6 million people worldwide will die of cancer in 2050, compared to 10.4 million in 2023. New cancer cases are expected to rise by more than 60 percent in the same period, reaching 30.5 million. Researchers attributed the surge largely to population growth and ageing, which will expand the pool of people most vulnerable to the disease.
Cancer remains closely tied to lifestyle and environmental risks. More than 40 percent of cancer deaths in 2023 were linked to 44 “modifiable” risk factors such as smoking, poor diet, obesity, high blood sugar, and alcohol consumption. Among men, modifiable risks accounted for 46 percent of deaths, led by tobacco use, dietary choices, alcohol, workplace hazards, and air pollution. For women, 36 percent of cancer deaths were tied to modifiable factors, including tobacco, unsafe sex, diet, and high blood sugar.
“There are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives,” said Dr. Theo Vos, a researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and one of the study’s authors.
The analysis tracked data from 1990 to 2023, covering 47 types of cancer across 204 countries and territories, before projecting trends through 2050. While overall cancer incidence and deaths have climbed sharply since 1990, death rates have declined in many high-income countries due to earlier detection, improved treatments, and prevention strategies such as anti-smoking campaigns.
However, lower-income countries are expected to bear the brunt of the future cancer epidemic. The report warns that they will account for more than half of new cancer cases and two-thirds of cancer deaths by 2050. Limited access to timely diagnosis, effective treatment, and supportive care could turn the situation into what researchers described as an “impending disaster.”
“Cancer is already stretching healthcare systems in lower-income countries, and this rising burden will worsen existing inequalities,” said Meghnath Dhimal of the Nepal Health Research Council, a co-author of the study. He emphasized the need for cost-effective interventions that can be implemented even in resource-constrained settings.
The authors urged governments to prioritize preventive health measures, strengthen screening and diagnostic capacity, and expand access to affordable cancer care. They stressed that curbing risk factors could substantially reduce future cases and deaths, especially in countries where healthcare systems are least prepared for the challenge.
As cancer cases and deaths climb over the next 25 years, the report concludes, addressing modifiable risks and investing in healthcare infrastructure will be critical to averting millions of preventable deaths.
Health
France Records 5,764 Excess Deaths During Deadliest Heatwave Since 2003
At least 5,764 excess deaths were recorded in France during last month’s record-breaking heatwave, making it the country’s deadliest heat event since 2003, according to new figures from the national public health agency.
Between June 17 and July 2, 21,674 people died in France, compared with an estimated 15,910 deaths expected under normal conditions, Santé publique France said in a bulletin published Wednesday.
The agency described the figure as the highest excess all-cause mortality recorded during a heatwave since 2003. That year’s extreme heat event caused nearly 15,000 deaths across France.
The latest heatwave was notable for its timing, intensity and duration. It struck early in the summer, when schools and workplaces were still operating normally, and exposed almost the entire French population to extreme temperatures.
For the first time, the public health agency recorded excess all-cause mortality across every age group from 15 years old and above. The agency said the pattern demonstrated the exceptional intensity and prolonged nature of the heat exposure.
People aged 75 and over accounted for around two-thirds of the provisional death toll, with at least 3,719 excess deaths recorded in that age group. However, deaths also increased among younger adults, making the event different from many previous heatwaves, when the impact was concentrated mainly among the elderly.
Mortality rose in hospitals, private homes and nursing homes. Almost half of the excess deaths occurred in hospitals, according to the preliminary data.
Santé publique France stressed that the excess deaths cannot yet be directly attributed to heat in every individual case. However, the scale and distribution of the increase point to the wider health impact of the extreme temperatures.
The agency said the findings showed the need for governments and health authorities to introduce prevention and response measures before temperatures reach crisis levels.
“These impacts highlight the importance of implementing management and prevention measures to reduce the impact of heat on the population without waiting for health impacts to become apparent,” the agency said.
The French figures came as other Western European countries reported thousands of additional deaths during a heatwave in early July. Preliminary estimates suggested more than 4,000 people died across the region during that period.
The World Health Organization’s European office called on governments at the end of June to treat extreme heat as a major health crisis and strengthen the ability of health systems to respond.
Public health officials have warned that longer and more intense heatwaves are placing growing pressure on hospitals, care facilities and emergency services, increasing the need for early warnings and stronger protection measures.
Health
Up to Five Cups of Coffee a Day May Be Safe for Most Adults, Review Finds
Drinking up to five cups of coffee a day may be safe for most adults and could be associated with a lower risk of several health problems, according to a major review by the American Heart Association.
The review found that consuming up to 400 milligrams of caffeine a day, roughly equivalent to five cups of caffeinated coffee, does not generally increase cardiovascular risk for most adults. Moderate consumption, particularly between two and four cups daily, was also linked to the lowest risk of death in the research examined.
“The equivalent of up to five cups of caffeinated coffee per day without added sugars or fillers is safe and does not increase cardiovascular risk,” said Gregory M. Marcus, a co-author of the paper and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.
The analysis found that moderate coffee consumption may be associated with better heart health and a lower risk of conditions including heart failure, heart disease and stroke. Some individuals also appeared to have a lower risk of high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes.
Coffee is the main source of caffeine for many adults, but daily intake can also come from tea, chocolate, fizzy drinks and some over-the-counter and prescription medicines. The researchers said less is known about the effects of caffeine from these sources, particularly at high levels.
Energy drinks were highlighted as an area requiring further study because large amounts of caffeine and other ingredients may pose cardiovascular risks.
Caffeine is processed by the liver and usually reaches its highest concentration in the blood within about an hour of consumption. The way people respond to it varies widely, however, depending on genetics, metabolism, age and previous caffeine intake.
Regular coffee drinkers may develop some tolerance, while others can experience strong effects from relatively small amounts.
“Although research suggests that caffeine consumption may be associated with certain cardiovascular benefits for some people, it’s important to remember that there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ strategy for safe caffeine consumption,” Marcus said.
He added that an amount that is reasonable for one person could cause side effects such as heart palpitations, anxiety or sleep disruption in another.
The researchers also warned that the way coffee is prepared can affect its overall health impact. Large amounts of added sugar, flavoured syrups and high-calorie dairy products can significantly increase calorie intake and may reduce the potential benefits associated with coffee itself.
The findings suggest that moderate, unsweetened coffee consumption can fit into a healthy lifestyle for many adults, but individual tolerance remains an important factor when deciding how much caffeine to consume.
Health
Summer Heat Linked to Seasonal Depression as Mental Health Concerns Rise Worldwide
Seasonal depression is commonly associated with the short, dark days of winter, but health experts are warning that hot weather and prolonged heatwaves can also trigger a lesser-known form of the condition during the summer months.
Medical professionals say Summer Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) is a recognised type of depression that follows a seasonal pattern and can significantly affect daily life. Although far less common than winter SAD, experts stress that it should be treated as a serious mental health condition.
According to a recent study, summer SAD affects around 0.57% of the global population, compared with about 5% for the winter form of the disorder. Rising temperatures, frequent heatwaves and tropical nights have been identified as factors that can contribute to symptoms in vulnerable individuals.
Unlike winter depression, which is often linked to reduced daylight and social isolation, summer SAD is associated with excessive heat, disrupted sleep and physical discomfort. Symptoms may include insomnia, loss of appetite, anxiety, agitation and persistent low mood. In severe cases, the condition can interfere with work, relationships and everyday activities.
Adam Borland, a clinical psychologist at the Cleveland Clinic, said people experiencing symptoms may benefit from maintaining a regular daily routine, limiting exposure to extreme heat and making sleep a priority. He added that anyone with severe or persistent symptoms should seek professional medical care.
The warning comes as mental health conditions continue to rise across the world. A recent analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study, published in The Lancet, estimated that approximately 1.2 billion people, or around 15% of the global population, were living with a mental health condition in 2023.
The study found that the number of people affected by mental health disorders increased by 95% between 1990 and 2023. During the same period, mental disorders climbed from the 12th to the fifth leading cause of health loss worldwide.
Major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders recorded some of the sharpest increases. Cases of major depression rose by 131%, while anxiety disorders increased by 158%, making them the two most common mental health conditions globally.
Researchers behind the Global Burden of Disease Study said meeting the growing demand for mental health services should be regarded as a public health priority, particularly for vulnerable groups.
The situation is also a concern across Europe. The World Health Organization estimates that one in six people in the European region, around 140 million individuals, lives with a mental health condition. Despite the high number of cases, only one in three people suffering from depression receive the treatment they need.
Health experts have also highlighted the lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Depression and anxiety among young people have increased by an estimated 25% since the pandemic, while suicide has become the leading cause of death among people aged 15 to 29 in the European region.
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