Business
UK Inflation Falls Again, Boosting Chances of Interest Rate Cut in May
UK inflation slowed for the second consecutive month in March, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will move to cut interest rates at its next meeting in May.
Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to March, down from 2.8% in February. The decline was sharper than analysts had forecast, with many predicting a more modest drop to 2.7%. Falling fuel prices were cited as a key factor in easing inflationary pressure.
Despite the encouraging data, inflation remains above the BoE’s 2% target, with economists warning that price pressures could increase again in April. Rising domestic energy bills and the potential impact of global trade tensions are among the risks that could reignite inflation in the months ahead.
Still, many analysts now believe the central bank has enough room to begin easing its main interest rate, currently at 4.50%, following multiple hikes over the past two years to curb inflation.
“An interest rate cut in May looks increasingly nailed on, and the path to more easing in the second half of the year is getting clearer,” said Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen.
The slowdown in inflation reflects a broader global trend. Since the pandemic and subsequent geopolitical shocks, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation has declined from multidecade highs. Central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have begun cautiously reducing rates — though few expect a return to the near-zero levels seen after the 2008 financial crisis.
However, concerns remain. Nick Saunders, CEO of Webull UK, warned that “inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target,” pointing to strong wage growth and the risk of resurgent price pressures. “Traders are pricing in three or possibly four cuts by the end of the year, but stubborn inflation throws this into doubt,” he said.
Saunders also noted the uncertain impact of the escalating global tariff war led by U.S. President Donald Trump. While tariffs could slow global growth and depress prices — especially oil — they may also lead to new market dynamics, including the UK potentially benefiting from cheaper imports.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, echoed that sentiment. “At 2.6%, inflation is ahead of the Bank’s 2% target but it’s likely to be sufficiently low to give rate setters the green light to keep cutting the base rate,” she said, citing market odds of an 85% chance of a rate cut in May.
The BoE has already reduced its benchmark rate three times since last August, lowering it from a 16-year high of 5.25%. The focus now turns to how far and how fast the bank will ease further — with domestic factors like labour costs and employment levels set to play a key role in future decisions.
Business
Global Markets Rise as US–Iran Talks Ease Sentiment, but Oil and Geopolitical Risks Persist
Global financial markets advanced on Friday as investors reacted cautiously to signs of progress in US–Iran negotiations, though ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices kept risk sentiment fragile.
European equities opened higher across the board. The DAX gained 0.64%, supported by a 3.61% rise in Deutsche Post AG shares. France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.65%, led by a 3.43% jump in STMicroelectronics. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.38%, with gains in financial stocks including 3i Group, while the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.88%.
Currency markets were relatively steady, with the euro trading at $1.161 and the British pound at $1.342 in early European trading. Sentiment was also lifted by better-than-expected economic data from Germany, where first-quarter growth came in at 0.4% year on year and consumer confidence improved heading into June, offering cautious optimism for Europe’s largest economy.
Asian markets followed the upward trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% to 63,339 after data showed inflation easing to a four-year low of 1.4% in April. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 2.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite each gained 0.9%. South Korea, Australia, and India also posted modest increases, reflecting broad regional strength.
Wall Street had earlier closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, the Dow Jones rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%. However, technology stocks showed mixed signals, with Nvidia falling 1.8% despite strong quarterly results, as investors weighed valuations against broader market uncertainty.
Oil markets remained the key source of volatility. Brent crude climbed 2.3% to $104.97 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8% to $98.10. Prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, driven by continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows pass.
Shipping through the strategic waterway remains constrained, with limited signs of recovery as diplomatic negotiations continue without resolution. Analysts say markets are highly sensitive to developments in talks between Washington and Tehran, with ING commodities strategists noting that optimism exists but uncertainty dominates trading conditions.
Geopolitical tensions also weighed on policy discussions in Washington, where a planned congressional vote on war powers legislation was postponed amid insufficient support.
In bond markets, US Treasury yields eased slightly to 4.57% after earlier spikes driven by inflation concerns linked to energy prices. The movement reflected ongoing caution among investors balancing growth expectations with persistent geopolitical risk.
Corporate earnings added a bright spot in Asia, where Lenovo Group surged more than 20% after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, driven by robust performance in its PC and smart devices division.
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