Global oil prices fell sharply on Monday, hitting their lowest levels in over four years, after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed it would speed up the unwinding of production cuts by boosting output in June. The move, aimed in part at penalizing members that exceeded quota limits, comes as global demand softens under the weight of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.
Brent crude futures dropped as much as 4.6% during Asian trading hours to $58.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 5% to $55.53. Both benchmarks are at their lowest levels since February 2021.
The latest decision by OPEC+ — which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia — will see eight member nations raise production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. This follows increases of 135,000 bpd in April and 411,000 bpd in May, bringing the total planned increase to nearly 1 million bpd over three months.
OPEC+ had initially implemented significant output cuts to stabilize prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it began unwinding those cuts earlier this year, citing the need to discipline non-compliant producers such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.
In a statement released over the weekend, OPEC+ noted the changes could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” it said, adding that the decision gives countries a chance to compensate for previous overproduction.
The timing of the move has added to already mounting pressure on oil prices. Global demand has weakened as trade tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff-driven trade policy has raised concerns over slowing economic growth, with recent data showing a contraction in the U.S. economy and declining manufacturing activity in China — the world’s largest oil importer.
Oil prices dropped more than 7% last week, their steepest weekly loss in a month. Analysts now say the market is increasingly driven by demand-side concerns. “The Saudis have taken their hands off the wheel when it comes to supply,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com. “Any recovery in prices now depends entirely on whether the trade outlook improves.”
Markets are closely watching developments between Washington and Beijing. Trump said Sunday he may ease tariffs to reopen trade talks, while China confirmed it is reviewing recent diplomatic overtures from the U.S.
With rising supply and uncertain demand, oil markets remain volatile heading into the summer.